Die ekonomie minuut

Many of the indicators I often talk about are announced with quite a lag. This week's retail sales figures are September's data. Unfortunately, there is not a lot of high-frequency data available that tells what is going on in the economy right now. One of the exceptions is BUSA and the Association of Freight Forwarders'  (SAAFF) weekly update and it is full of interesting things. * The Econo...

Policy uncertainty is when there is uncertainty about government policy or its consequences and Justice Malala sang a lament about it in the Financial Mail yesterday. His argument is that the economy can no longer afford the contradictions of policy and procrastination with reform. * The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Beleidsonsekerheid is wanneer daar onsekerheid is oor regeringsbeleid of die gevolge daarvan en Justice Malala het gister in die Financial Mail ʼn klaaglied daaroor gesing. Sy argument is dat die ekonomie nie die teenstellings van beleid en gesloer met hervorming langer kan bekostig nie. * Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Consumption spending is an important part of total spending in the economy. If consumers are doing well, the economy is doing well and vice versa. Today September's retail sales figures are announced and a contraction is expected. On the one hand, load shedding makes it difficult and expensive for retailers to keep the shop door open and on the other hand because consumers are under pressure. * Th...

Verbruiksbesteding is ʼn belangrike deel van die totale besteding in die ekonomie. As dit goed gaan met verbruikers gaan dit goed met die ekonomie en andersom. Vandag word Septembermaand se kleinhandel verkopesyfers bekend gemaak. Daar word ʼn inkrimping verwag. Aan die een kant omdat beurtkrag dit vir kleinhandelaars moeilik en duur maak om die winkeldeur oop te hou en aan die ander kant omdat verb...

Over the course of five episodes, I’m having conversations with experts from North-West University about a variety of topics. We are talking about the things that they are passionate about and are experts in their field, hoping to better understand all the factors that influence the South African economy. Today I’m talking to Dr Anton van Wyk of the School of Economic Sciences about Competition Ec...

As dit so lekker reën soos die afgelope week en daar is goeie nuus oor trekkerverkope skep mens sommer moed vir die landbousektor, maar ek het gister ʼn ontleding gelees wat wys dat hierdie nie ʼn maklike, of noodwendig winsgewende, somerseisoen gaan wees nie. * Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool. ** Lees die blog waarop hierdie episode gebasseer is hier: The Farming Economis...

When it rains as well as it has in the past week and there is good news about tractor sales, one feels encouraged about the prospects for the agricultural sector, but I read an analysis yesterday that shows that this is not going to be an easy, or necessarily profitable, summer season. * The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School. ** Read the blog that this post draws from here:...

Hierdie jaar het die ekonomiese nuus gegaan oor inflasie en rentekoerse en ons almal het dit aan ons sakke gevoel. Dit lyk nou of inflasiedruk begin afneem en die vraag is wanneer rentekoerse ʼn draaipunt gaan bereik en self gaan begin afneem. Sommige dink vroeg volgende jaar, ander dink dit gaan nog lank wees. * DIe Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

This year the economic news was about inflation and interest rates and we all felt it in our wallets. It now seems that inflationary pressure is beginning to ease and the question is when interest rates will reach a turning point, and begin to decrease as well? Some think early next year, others think much later. * The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

The Minute closes the week with a few indicators, but they point in different directions. Mining production decreased by 4.5% year-on-year in September. However, manufacturing surprised and output increased. Investec is talking about the possibility of a 100 basis point repo rate increase at the end of the month. * The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Die Minuut sluit die week af met ʼn paar aanwysers, maar hulle wys in verskillende rigtings. Mynbouproduksie het in Septembermaand met 4,5% afgeneem jaar-op-jaar. Vervaardiging het egter verras en uitset het toegeneem. Investec praat van die moontlikheid van ʼn 100 basispunte repokoers verhoging aan die einde van die maand. * Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

The agricultural sector in South Africa accounts for 3% of the Gross Domestic Product but in the past few years has made an important contribution to the economic growth we have had, to exports and investment. What one mostly reads about are all the challenges the sector faces, and there are many. However, in the last week there was also some news that makes one optimistic - rain prospects for the...

Die landbousektor in Suid-Afrika maak 3% van die Bruto Binnelandse Produk uit maar het die afgelope paar jaar ʼn belangrike bydra gemaak tot die ekonomiese groei wat ons wel gehad, tot uitvoer en investering. Waaroor mens meestal lees is al die uitdagings wat die sektor in die gesig staar, en daar is baie. Tog was daar die laaste week ook nuus wat mens optimisties maak – reënvooruitsigte vir die so...

As jy na gister se episode geluister het sal jy dalk saamstem dat die groot vraagstukke rondom die omgewing, kweekhuisgasse, aardverwarming en beleid om dit teen te werk is interessant, maar dalk wil jy ook vra, hoe raak dit my huishouding of besigheid? Om netto-zero koolstofbesoedeling te hê teen 2050 klink nie of dit iets met my te doen het nie, maar eintlik raak dit ons almal indirek en oor die...

If you listened to yesterday's episode you might agree that the big issues surrounding the environment, greenhouse gases, global warming and policies to counter it are interesting, but you might also want to ask, how does this affect my household or business? Having net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 doesn't sound like it has anything to do with me, but actually it affects us all indirectly and ove...

This week the COP27 climate summit is being held in Egypt. There will be talk about greenhouse gases, global warming and climate change. Interesting themes are, for example, the idea that rich countries should pay compensation to poor countries for the damage their production and consumption causes to the environment and the disasters this leads to in poor countries. Think of it as the Chinese fac...

Hierdie week word die COP27 klimaatsberaad in Egipte gehou. Daar gaan gepraat word oor kweekhuisgasse, aardverwarming en klimaatsverandering. Interessante temas is byvoorbeeld die idee dat ryk lande vergoeding moet betaal aan arm lande vir die skade wat hulle produksie en verbruik aan die omgewing veroorsaak en die rampe waartoe dit lei in arm lande. Dink daaraan as die Sjinese fabriek, of Suid-Af...

This year US economic indicators are important for the world economy and their economic growth rate and inflation rate directly affect us here in South Africa. The reason is that they have large and liquid financial markets and investors think that their interest rate on government bonds is the standard for a risk-free return. So when their interest rates go up the dollar strengthens and everyone...

Hierdie jaar is Amerikaanse ekonomiese aanwysers belangrik vir die wêreldekonomie en hulle ekonomiese groeikoers en inflasiekoers raak ons hier in Suid-Afrika direk. Die rede is dat hulle groot en likiede finansiële markte het en beleggers dink dat hulle rentekoers op staatseffekte stel die standaard vir ʼn risikovrye-opbrengs. So wanneer hulle rentekoerse styg versterk die dollar en almal anders s...

In die kommentaar oor die mini-begroting duik die staatskuld gereeld op. Jy sou dalk gelees of gehoor het dat die staatskuld nie te veel moet word nie. Die owerheid moet rente betaal voor enige ander besteding en ʼn te groot rentelas beteken daar is minder geld oor vir ander besteding. As die rentekoers hoër is as die groeikoers van die ekonomie, word die rentebetalings en omvang van die skuld makl...

In the comments on the mini-budget, the public debt is mentioned frequently. You might have read or heard that public debt should not become too much. The state must pay interest before any other spending and a too large interest burden means there is less money left for other spending. If the interest rate is higher than the growth rate of the economy, the interest payments and the size of the de...

This week's important economic indicator is not a data point, but the US Federal Reserve Bank's decision on their policy interest rate. What happens in the US has an influence on exchange rates and financial markets all over the world. We know that the US inflation rate is high and to fight this, the Federal Reserve Bank yesterday increased the policy rate by 75 basis points for the fourth time in...

Hierdie week se belangrike ekonomiese aanwyser is glad nie ʼn datapunt nie, maar die Amerikaanse Federale Reserwebank se besluit oor hulle beleidsrentekoers. Wat in die VSA gebeur het ‘n invloed op wisselkoerse en finansiële markte reg oor die wêreld. Ons weet dat die Amerikaners se inflasiekoers hoog is en om dit te beveg het die Federale Reserwebank gister vir die vierde keer in ʼn ry die beleidsk...

Economists are concerned about how the economy is doing in this second half of the year. We know that the economy grew in the first quarter and contracted in the second. Data on the third and fourth quarters are slowly becoming available and in it, one sees the impact of slower growth of the world economy, high inflation and interest rates, and also load shedding. New figures for ABSA's purchasing...