Die ekonomie minuut

Noudat mens weer wettiglik alkohol kan koop, kan ons gerus ʼn bier drink op die suksesse in die landboubedryf. Die sitrusbedryf het ʼn rekord jaar beleef en graan het ʼn uitskieter somerseisoen.

Now that you can legally buy alcohol again, we should drink a beer and celebrate the successes in the agricultural sector. The citrus industry experienced a record year in 2020 and maize has had an outstanding summer season.

When I have been talking about the recovery of the economy after the worst of the pandemic and the lockdown, the figures were from the fourth quarter of last year, but finally, some of the first 2021 figures were announced yesterday and they are up and down.

Wanneer ek gesels oor die herstel van die ekonomie na die ergste van die pandemie en inperking, was dit gebasseer op syfers uit die vierde kwartaal van verlede jaar. Gister is van die eerste 2021 syfers bekend gemaak en dit is op en af.

Economists are constantly trying to gauge the health of the economy, and at the moment specifically the recovery of the economy. GDP growth figures are only calculated quarterly and are available with a lag. Meanwhile, we are looking at other monthly data or even higher frequency indicators. Last week, export and import unit value index data were released. This represents the trends in export and...

Ekonome probeer deurentyd om die gesondheid van die ekonomie te peil. Op die oomblik gaan dit spesifiek oor die herstel van die ekonomie na die groot inkrimping in 2020. BBP groeisyfers word net kwartaalliks bereken en is beskikbaar met ʼn sloering. Intussen kyk ons na ander maandelikse- of selfs meer hoë frekwensie-aanwysers. Verlede week is uitvoer en invoer eenheidswaarde-indeks data aangekondig...

One of the biggest constraints on economic growth in South Africa is load shedding, and one of the biggest debt exposures in the public sector is Eskom's debt burden and therefore any energy news is important. Yesterday, energy regulator Nersa announced after a court battle that Eskom may recover an additional R6 billion in revenue from consumers. If it all becomes part of price increases this yea...

Een van die grootste beperkinge op ekonomiese groei in Suid-Afrika is beurtkrag, en een die grootste skuldblootstellings in die openbare sektor is Eskom se skuldlas en daarom is enige energie-nuus van belang. Gister het die energie reguleerder Nersa na ʼn hofstryd aangekondig dat Eskom ʼn addisionele R6 miljard se inkomste van verbruikers mag verhaal. As dit alles hierdie jaar deel word van prysverh...

As farmers’ problems dissolve in rainwater, so economists' worries become less as the economy grows. Unfortunately, this week the IMF lowered its 2021 growth forecast for South Africa. What can drive growth in 2021?

Soos wat broere se probleme in reenwater oplos, word ekonome se bekommernisse minder as die ekonomie groei. Ongelukkig het die IMF hierdie week hulle 2021 groeivoorspelling vir Suid-Afrika verlaag. Wat kan groei dryf in 2021?

Mike Schussler has interesting research on the impact of the adjusted level-3 lockdown on the economy. He argues that the curfew, capacity constraints, and the ban on the sale of alcohol have an impact on travel, tourism, entertainment and services and that it spills over into agriculture and manufacturing that provide inputs for this segment of the economy. He argues that the government should th...

Mike Schussler het interessante navorsing oor die impak van die aangepaste vlak-3 inperking op die ekonomie. Hy argumenteer dat die aandklokreël, kapasiteitsbeperkings en die verbod op die verkoop van alkohol ʼn impak het op reis, toerisme, vermaak en dienste en dat dit oorspoel na landbou en vervaardiging wat hierdie segment van die ekonomie voorsien. Hy argumenteer dat die regering hier sektore m...

Fresh economic indicators will only be available later this week so today I am rather talking about new research from the US. Most studies of the impact of minimum wages find that they do not make much of a difference to employment, but a new experimental study by John Horton gives interesting results.

Nuwe ekonomiese data is eers later hierdie week beskikbaar en daarom het ek gedink om vandag oor navorsing uit die VSA te gesels. Meeste studies van die impak van minimum lone bevind dat dit nie veel van ʼn verskil maak aan indiensname nie, maar ʼn nuwe eksperimentele studie deur John Horton gee interessante resultate.

One set of figures that did not get the news coverage it should is last week’s Statistics South Africa's report on the food and beverage sector. Coffee shops, restaurants, fast food vendors and the catering industry have been hit hard over the past 10 months by the lockdown, capacity limits and the curfew. Many people were careful about eating out and rather stayed at home, and it all shows in the...

Een stel syfers wat verlede week nie eintlik die nuus gehaal het nie was Statistieke Suid-Afrika se verslag oor die voedsel- en dranksektor. Koffiewinkels, restourante, kitskosverkopers en spysenieringsbedryf is die aflope 10 maande swaar getref deur die inperking, kapasiteitsbeperkings en die aanklokreel. Baie mense was versigtig om uit te eet en het eerder by die huis gebly, en dit alles wys in...

This morning I want to give a quick summary of how the economy is doing. As usual, it is a mixed bag.

Ek wil vandag net ʼn vinnige samevatting te gee van hoe dit met die ekonomie gaan. Soos gewoonlik is dit ʼn gemengde prentjie.

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee met yesterday and today for the first time in 2021. Their big decision is about the repo rate and economists expect them to keep it unchanged. We will know more about the decision and their reasoning this afternoon, but for now, we can think about everything they might be considering.

Die Reserwebank se Monetêre Beleiskommitee het gister en vandag vir die eerste keer in 2021 vergader. Hulle groot besluit is oor die repokoers en ekonome verwag dat hulle dit onveranderd gaan hou. Ons sal vanmiddag meer weet oor hoe hulle redeneer, maar vir die oomblik kan ons dink oor alles wat hulle moontlik oorweeg.

If you read the newspaper, it seems that many people are disappointed by the government's poor planning around the purchase of the coronavirus vaccine, but they are also not very keen on paying extra for it. The Department of Health estimates it will cost about R20.6 billion to vaccinate two-thirds of the population. The proposal that private medical funds use their members' reserves to pay for th...

As mens die koerant lees, lyk dit of baie mense teleurgesteld is oor die regering se swak beplanning rondom die aankoop van die coronavirusentstof, maar hulle is ook nie baie lus om ekstra daarvoor te betaal nie. Die Departement van Gesondheid skat dit sal ongeveer R20,6 miljard kos om twee-derdes van die bevolking in te ent. Die voorstel dat privaatmediesefondse hulle lede se reserwes gebruik om...

One of my hobbies is to keep an eye on different Facebook groups and how it is raining all over the country. And then I regularly read about the fantastic summer season the agricultural sector is experiencing. My question then is, why is the maize price still so high? So I listened to what my colleague Dr Johnny van der Merwe says in his AMT report.

Een van my klein stokperdies is om op Faceboek groepe te kyk hoe lekker dit deur die land reën. En dan lees ek gereeld van hoe fantastiese somerseisoen die landbou sektor beleef. My vraag is dan, hoekom is die mieliepryse steeds so hoog? Ek het toe gaan luister wat my kollega Dr Johnny van der Merwe sê in sy weeklikse AMT verslag.

This week the economics news will be dominated by the first meeting in 2021 of the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. Along with their decision on the repo rate on Thursday, December's consumer price inflation figure will be released on Wednesday and there are new data on mining production and retail sales available.