Die ekonomie minuut

Verbruikersprysinflasie het gestyg vanaf 4,9% in Augustus tot 5% in September. Dit is grootliks gedryf deur stygings in die brandstofprys.

The news reports of the last few days show just how vulnerable South Africa's economic recovery is. If China seems to start to grow more slowly, and there is pressure on energy prices, the rand depreciates and everyone is wondering by how much inflation and interest rates will increase. Most analysts think that reforms are moving in the right direction, but still too slowly. The head of Business L...

Die laaste paar dae se nuusberigte wys net hoe kwesbaar Suid-Afrika se ekonomiese herstel is. As dit lyk of Sjina begin stadiger groei, en daar is druk op energiepryse, dan val die rand en almal wonder met hoeveel gaan inflasie en rentekoerse styg. Meeste ontleders dink dat hervormings beweeg in die regte rigting, maar nog te stadig. Die hoof van Business Leadership SA het ʼn beroep op die Presiden...

Is jy ook partykeer lus en los jou werk en word eerder ʼn YouTuber? Of miskien sal iemand my betaal om rond te reis en foto’s te neem en hulle bestemmings of produkte op Instagram te bemark. In die sogenaamde creator economy het almal al gehoor van een of ander tiener wat miljoene maak op Tik-Tok, maar wie skep in die skeppende ekonomie?

Do you also sometimes feel like quitting your job and become a YouTuber? Or maybe someone will pay me to travel, take photos and market their destinations or products on Instagram. In the so-called creator economy, everyone has heard of some teenager making millions on Tik-Tok, but who makes the money in the creative economy?

Die afgelope week was daar ʼn paar stukkies ekonomiese nuus wat my oog gevang het, wat ek graag hier wil deel: die brandstofprys, the President se werkskeppingsplanne, die mini-Begroting, VPI inflasiesyfers die week.

This past week there were a few pieces of economic news that caught my eye, and I would like to share them here: the fuel price, the President's job creation plans, the mini-Budget, CPI inflation numbers this week

We all remember the devastating social unrest of July, and know of the negative impact it had on production, wholesale and retail sales. This week, Statistics South Africa released figures for August, and unfortunately, these indicate an inconsistent recovery.

Ons almal onthou die vernietigende sosiale onrus van Juliemaand, en weet van die negatiewe impak wat dit op produksie, groot- en kleinhandel gehad het. Hierdie week het Statistieke Suid-Afrika syfers vir Augustusmaand bekend gemaak, en ongelukkig wys dit op ʼn wisselvallige herstel.

I see on Facebook that some of my economist friends have started travelling again for meetings, but analysts expect business travel will not return to where it was before the pandemic, and that will make plane tickets more expensive for the rest of us.

Ek sien op Facebook dat van my ekonoom vriende het weer begin reis vir vergaderings, maar ontleders verwag dat sake-reise nie weer gaan terugkeer na waar dit voor die pandemie was nie, en dit gaan ons almal se vliegkaartjies duurder maak.

Gister se ekonomiese nuus was dat die Internasionale Monetêre Fonds hulle groei vooruitskatting vir Suid-Afrika verhoog het tot 5% vir 2021. Die bekommernis die medium-termyn vooruitsigte vir volgende jaar en daarna.

Yesterday's economic news was that the International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for South Africa to 5% for 2021. The concern is the medium-term outlook for next year and beyond.

Drie professors, David Card, Joshua Angrist en Guido Imbens het hierdie jaar die Nobelprys vir Ekonomie gewen. Die toekenning is vir werk wat in die vroee 1990’s gedoen. Dit gaan spesifiek oor statistiese metodes wat natuurlike eksperimente gebruik om die oorsaaklikheid tussen ekonomiese beleid en daaropvolgende gebeure te bepaal.

Three professors, David Card, Joshua Angrist and Guido Imbens, won the Nobel Prize in Economics this year. The award is for work done in the early 1990s. It is specifically about statistical methods that use natural experiments to determine the causality between economic policy and subsequent events.

Ek het die afgelope week gaan stap en daar was nie selfoonsein of tyding van die buitewêreld nie. Dus wil ek die week afskop met ʼn kort oorsig van dit wat ons gemis het.

I went on a hiking trip last week and there was no mobile phone signal or tidings from the outside world. So I want to kick off the week with a brief overview of what we missed.

If, like me, you have been lying awake about the sustainability of government finances, there is now reason to sleep a little more peacefully - the Reserve Bank's quarterly bulletin shows that tax revenues, the deficit and government debt figures look much better than expected.

As jy, soos ek, wakker lê oor die volhoubaarheid van die owerheidsfinansies, is daar nou rede om so bietjie rustiger te slaap – die Reserwebank se kwartaalblad wys dat belasting inkomste, die tekrot en staatskuldsyfers heelwat beter lyk as wat verwag is.

Statistics South Africa yesterday announced the results of the quarterly employment survey. It measures employment among 20,000 businesses. The focus is therefore on the formal sector and the survey excludes the agricultural sector. The figures we get here look slightly different from the Labor Force Survey. The QLFS is a survey among households and gives more details about who has a job, and who...

Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister die resultate van die kwartaallikse opname van indiensname bekend gemaak. Dit meet indiensname onder 20 000 besighede. Die fokus is dus op die formele sektor en die opname sluit die landbou-sektor uit. Die syfers wat ons hier kry lyk effens anders as die Arbeidsmagopname. Daardie is ʼn opname onder huishoudings en gee meer besonderhede oor wie werk het, en werk so...

Economists think that people's expectations about inflation are an important determinant of the actual level of inflation. If you think prices are going to increase, you ask for a bigger salary increase, then labour costs go up, and then prices go up too. An important part of monetary policy is to anchor our inflation expectations. But maybe there are doubts about all this...

Ekonome dink dat mense se verwagtinge oor inflasie is ʼn belangrike bepaler van die ware vlak van inflasie. As jy dink pryse gaan styg, dan vra jy vir ʼn groter salarisverhoging, dan styg die besigheid se koste, en dan gaan pryse styg. ʼn Belangrike deel van monetêre beleid is om ons inflasieverwagtinge te anker. Maar dalk loop hierdie storie nie heeltemal so nie...

After Thursday's Monetary Policy Committee meeting, analysts are wondering whether the repo rate could start to rise as early as November. I reasoned in Friday's episode that headline inflation is stable and the economy does not seem to be overheating. So, if the repo rate should rise, it will be due to foreign factors. Does the USA-SA interest rate differential matter?

Na Donderdag se Monetêre beleidskommitee vergadering wonder ontleders of die repokoers al in Novembermaand kan begin styg. Ek het in Vrydag se episode geredeneer dat hooflyn-inflasie is stabiel en dit lyk nie of die ekonomie oorverhit-groei nie. Dus, as die repokoers moet styg gaan wees as gevolg van buitelandse faktore. Maak die rentekoersverskil tussen die VSA en SA saak?