Die ekonomie minuut

The Business Partners Small Business Index, which measures business confidence among small businesses, was released this week. This shows that only 33% of the small businesses that participated in a survey at the end of last year had confidence that their business would grow over the next 12 months. They are concerned about cash flow, rising fuel costs, the availability of skilled workers, and dif...

Die Business Partners Kleinsake-indeks wat sakevertroue onder kleinsake-ondernnemings meet is hierdie week bekend gemaak. Dit wys dat slegs 33% van die kleinsake-ondernemings wat einde verlede jaar aan ʼn opname deelgeneem het, vertroue gehad het dat hulle besigheid oor die volgende 12 maande gaan groei. Hulle is bekommerd oor kontantvloei, stygende brandstofkoste, die beskikbaarheid van vaardighed...

Along with December's Consumer Price Index data, there are also two other indicators to watch this week: mining production and retail sales.

Saam met Desembermaand se Verbruikersprysindeksdata is daar ook twee ander aanwysers om hierdie week dop te hou: mynbouproduksie en kleinhandelverkope.

This week's key indicator is December's consumer price index and the inflation rate. Economists predict that interest rates will be raised by a quarter of a percentage point between 3 and 5 times this year, to fight inflation. There are a few things to explain.

Hierdie week se belangrike aanwyser is Desembermaand se verbruikersprysindeks en die inflasiekoers. Ekonome voorspel dat rentekoerse hierdie jaar tussen 3 en 5 keer met kwart persentasiepunte verhoog gaan word om inflasie te beveg. Daar is ʼn paar dinge om te verduidelik.

ʼn Risiko kan gemeet en bestuur word, maar wanneer ʼn situasie uniek is, en die uitkoms van gebeure is onvoorspelbaar, veroorsaak dit onsekerheid. Beleidsonsekerheid is wanneer daar onsekerheid is oor regeringsbeleid of die gevolge daarvan. Navorsing wys dat dit veroorsaak dat investering uitgestel word en dit demp ekonomiese groei. Ongelukkig is daar weekliks voorbeelde van beleidsonsekerheid in Su...

Risk can be measured and managed, but when a situation is unique, and the outcome of events is unpredictable, it causes uncertainty. Policy uncertainty is when there is uncertainty about government policy or of its consequences. Research shows that this causes investment to be delayed and it dampens economic growth. Unfortunately, there are weekly examples of policy uncertainty in South Africa, bu...

This week's economic indicators for December and the fourth quarter of 2021 are manufacturing production and also vehicle sales. It unfortunately paints a picture of subdued growth.

Die week se ekonomiese aanwysers vir Desember en die vierde kwartaal van 2021 is produksie in die vervaardigingsektor en ook voertuigverkope. Dit skets ongelukkig ‘n prentjie van gedempte groei.

Many people feel that the fire at Parliament is just another example of the government's ineptitude and that it further undermines confidence in their plans. I think it should rather be seen within the larger fiscal context.

Baie mense voel dat die brand by die Parlement net nog ʼn voorbeeld is van die onbeholpenheid van die regering en dat dit vertroue in hulle planne verder ondermyn. Maar ek dink dit moet eerder binne die grotere fiskale konteks gesien word.

One question that the Economics Minute is always trying to answer is, how is the economy doing? There are forecasts, for example, as to what will happen if US interest rates increase, and there are the official Statistics South Africa data, but often I talk about the high-frequency indicators. So there are now indicators available for this past December and for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Een vraag wat die Ekonomie Minuut probeer antwoord is, hoe gaan dit met die ekonomie. Daar is vooruitskattings, soos wat moontlik kan gebeur as Amerikaanse rentekoerse styg en daar is die amptelike Statistieke Suid-Afrika data, maar baie keer praat ek oor die hoë frekwensie aanwysers. So is daar nou aanwysers vir die afgelope Desember en vir die vierde kwartaal van 2021 beskikbaar.

Economists agree that the South African economy will be affected by international events this year, especially growth in China and inflation and interest rates in the US. That's why it's important to keep an eye on the US job market.

Ekonome is dit eens dat die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie hierdie jaar sterk beïnvloed gaan word deur internasionale gebeure, veral groei in Sjina en inflasie en rentekoerse in die VSA. Daarom is dit belangrik om die Amerikaanse arbeidsmark dop te hou.

Na Woensdag se episode met voospellings vir 2022 het ʼn paar mense my gevra hoe sulke voorspellings werk. Daar is ʼn paar maniere om dit te doen en soms gebruik ons die wysheid van die skare.

After Wednesday's episode with predictions for 2022, a few people asked me on what such predictions are based. There are a few ways to do it and often we use the wisdom of crowds.

Die eerste gedeelte van die Zondo kommissie se verslag haal hierdie week die hoofopskrifte in die media en baie mense voel dat daar opgetree moet word teen staatskapers en korruptes. Dit laat die saak in die hande van regsgeleerdes en ekonome het eintlik nie veel om daaroor te sê nie. Maar dit is nuuswaardig en ekonome het al interessante studies oor korrupsie gedoen.

The first part of the Zondo commission's report is making headlines in the media this week and many people feel that action must now be taken against those behind state capture and corruption. This leaves the matter in the hands of legal experts and economists should not have much to say about it. But it is newsworthy and economists have done interesting studies on corruption.

So vroeg in die jaar maak almal graag voorspellings van wat 2022 vir ons kan inhou. Ek het gaan lees en ʼn lys saamgestel.

This early in the year, everyone is happy to make predictions of what 2022 could hold for us. I did some reading and compiled a list.

Ekonome wil graag hê dat die ekonomie moet groei, maar baie keer gaan dit gepaard met stygende pryse en dan styg rentekoerse, wat die ekonomiese groei rem. Hoe lyk inflasie en rentkoers vooruitsigte vir Suid-Afrika vir die jaar wat voorlê?

Economists want the economy to grow, but often it is accompanied by rising prices and then rising interest rates, which in turn, slows economic growth. What do inflation and interest rate prospects look like for South Africa for the year ahead?

Hierdie is die eerste episode van 2022 en ek wil graag vir al die luisteraars ʼn voorspoedige nuwe jaar toewens. Die belangrikste ekonomiese vraagstuk van die jaar is die volgehoue groei van die ekonomie.