Die ekonomie minuut

Na die styging in die inflasiekoers in Desembermaand verwag ekonome 'n repokoers verhoging van 25 basispunte hierdie week. Klokslag sê die SAKP dat die Reserwebank se mandaat uitgebrei moet word om werkskepping in te sluit, maar dit is ʼn slegte idee.

On Friday the World Bank approved a $750 million, or approximately R11.4 billion loan for South Africa. The EFF protested and a regular listener sent me some questions over the weekend.

Die Wêreldbank het Vrydag ʼn $750 miljoen, of ongeveer R11,4 miljard lening vir Suid-Afrika goedgekeur. Die EFF protesteer en ʼn gereëlde luisteraar het oor die naweek vir my paar vrae gestuur.

This week's economic news was dominated by December's inflation data and the prospect of a repo rate hike next week. The other indicators: November's mining production and retail sales leave one with mixed feelings.

Die week se ekonomiese nuus is oorheers deur Desembermaand se inflasie data en die vooruitsig van ʼn repokoers verhoging volgende week. Die ander aanwysers: Novembermaand se mynbou-produksie en kleinhandelverkope los mens met gemengde gevoelens.

Statistics South Africa released its December consumer price index figure yesterday and inflation increased by 5.9%. Economists expect an increase in the repo rate at next week's meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.

Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister Desembermaand se verbruikerprysindekssyfer bekend gemaak en inflasie het met 5,9% gestyg. Ekonome verwag ʼn verhoging van die repokoers by volgende week se vergadering van die monetêre beleidskomittee.

The Business Partners Small Business Index, which measures business confidence among small businesses, was released this week. This shows that only 33% of the small businesses that participated in a survey at the end of last year had confidence that their business would grow over the next 12 months. They are concerned about cash flow, rising fuel costs, the availability of skilled workers, and dif...

Die Business Partners Kleinsake-indeks wat sakevertroue onder kleinsake-ondernnemings meet is hierdie week bekend gemaak. Dit wys dat slegs 33% van die kleinsake-ondernemings wat einde verlede jaar aan ʼn opname deelgeneem het, vertroue gehad het dat hulle besigheid oor die volgende 12 maande gaan groei. Hulle is bekommerd oor kontantvloei, stygende brandstofkoste, die beskikbaarheid van vaardighed...

Along with December's Consumer Price Index data, there are also two other indicators to watch this week: mining production and retail sales.

Saam met Desembermaand se Verbruikersprysindeksdata is daar ook twee ander aanwysers om hierdie week dop te hou: mynbouproduksie en kleinhandelverkope.

This week's key indicator is December's consumer price index and the inflation rate. Economists predict that interest rates will be raised by a quarter of a percentage point between 3 and 5 times this year, to fight inflation. There are a few things to explain.

Hierdie week se belangrike aanwyser is Desembermaand se verbruikersprysindeks en die inflasiekoers. Ekonome voorspel dat rentekoerse hierdie jaar tussen 3 en 5 keer met kwart persentasiepunte verhoog gaan word om inflasie te beveg. Daar is ʼn paar dinge om te verduidelik.

ʼn Risiko kan gemeet en bestuur word, maar wanneer ʼn situasie uniek is, en die uitkoms van gebeure is onvoorspelbaar, veroorsaak dit onsekerheid. Beleidsonsekerheid is wanneer daar onsekerheid is oor regeringsbeleid of die gevolge daarvan. Navorsing wys dat dit veroorsaak dat investering uitgestel word en dit demp ekonomiese groei. Ongelukkig is daar weekliks voorbeelde van beleidsonsekerheid in Su...

Risk can be measured and managed, but when a situation is unique, and the outcome of events is unpredictable, it causes uncertainty. Policy uncertainty is when there is uncertainty about government policy or of its consequences. Research shows that this causes investment to be delayed and it dampens economic growth. Unfortunately, there are weekly examples of policy uncertainty in South Africa, bu...

This week's economic indicators for December and the fourth quarter of 2021 are manufacturing production and also vehicle sales. It unfortunately paints a picture of subdued growth.

Die week se ekonomiese aanwysers vir Desember en die vierde kwartaal van 2021 is produksie in die vervaardigingsektor en ook voertuigverkope. Dit skets ongelukkig ‘n prentjie van gedempte groei.

Many people feel that the fire at Parliament is just another example of the government's ineptitude and that it further undermines confidence in their plans. I think it should rather be seen within the larger fiscal context.

Baie mense voel dat die brand by die Parlement net nog ʼn voorbeeld is van die onbeholpenheid van die regering en dat dit vertroue in hulle planne verder ondermyn. Maar ek dink dit moet eerder binne die grotere fiskale konteks gesien word.

One question that the Economics Minute is always trying to answer is, how is the economy doing? There are forecasts, for example, as to what will happen if US interest rates increase, and there are the official Statistics South Africa data, but often I talk about the high-frequency indicators. So there are now indicators available for this past December and for the fourth quarter of 2021.

Een vraag wat die Ekonomie Minuut probeer antwoord is, hoe gaan dit met die ekonomie. Daar is vooruitskattings, soos wat moontlik kan gebeur as Amerikaanse rentekoerse styg en daar is die amptelike Statistieke Suid-Afrika data, maar baie keer praat ek oor die hoë frekwensie aanwysers. So is daar nou aanwysers vir die afgelope Desember en vir die vierde kwartaal van 2021 beskikbaar.

Economists agree that the South African economy will be affected by international events this year, especially growth in China and inflation and interest rates in the US. That's why it's important to keep an eye on the US job market.

Ekonome is dit eens dat die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie hierdie jaar sterk beïnvloed gaan word deur internasionale gebeure, veral groei in Sjina en inflasie en rentekoerse in die VSA. Daarom is dit belangrik om die Amerikaanse arbeidsmark dop te hou.

Na Woensdag se episode met voospellings vir 2022 het ʼn paar mense my gevra hoe sulke voorspellings werk. Daar is ʼn paar maniere om dit te doen en soms gebruik ons die wysheid van die skare.

After Wednesday's episode with predictions for 2022, a few people asked me on what such predictions are based. There are a few ways to do it and often we use the wisdom of crowds.