Die ekonomie minuut

Hierdie is mini-begrotingsmaand en Minister Godongwana lewer die sy toespraak oor die medium termyn bestedingsraamwerk op 26 Oktober. Ons weet dat twee jaar se belastingmeevallers beteken dat die Minister ʼn klein bietjie beweegruimte het en daar is verwagtinge aan al die kante van die spektrum. * Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

This is mini budget month and Minister Godongwana delivers his speech on the medium-term expenditure framework on 26 October. We know that two years of tax windfalls mean that the Minister has a little bit of room for manoeuvre and there are expectations on all sides of the spectrum. * The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

The Daily Maverick teases and says it feels a bit like 2017 - load shedding, water-shedding and Jacob Zuma are in the news. That year the economy grew by just 1.2%. This week's indicators give us an idea of how difficult it is to say how the economy is doing. August's figures on production and sales in the manufacturing sector looked slightly better and SACCI's business confidence index remained r...

Die Daily Maverick terg en sê dit voel so bietjie soos 2017 – beurtkrag, beurtwater en Jacob Zuma is in die nuus Daardie jaar het die ekonomie het met net 1,2% gegroei. Hierdie week se aanwysers gee ons ʼn idee van hoe moeilik dit is te sê hoe dit met die ekonomie gaan. Augustusmaand se syfers oor produksie en verkope in die vervaardigingsektor het effens beter gelyk en die SACCI se sakevertroue-in...

The International Monetary Fund warned yesterday that the outlook for the world economy is deteriorating. They predict economic growth of 2.7% with a 25% chance that the world economy can grow less than 2% this year. Their chief economist warns that 2023 will feel like a recession for many people and that the chances of a mistake by policymakers are high. * The Economics Minute is supported by the...

Die Internasionale Monetêre Fonds het gister gewaarsku dat die vooruitsigte vir die wêreld-ekonomie slegter lyk. Hulle voorspel ekonomiese groei van 2,7% met ʼn 25% kans dat die wêreld-ekonomie minder as 2% kan groei. Hulle hoof-ekonoom waarsku dat 2023 vir baie mense soos ʼn resessie gaan voel en dat die kanse vir ʼn fout deur beleidmakers groot is. * Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU...

The 2022 Nobel Prize for Economics was awarded yesterday to Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig for their work on banking. Bernanke is known for his role as chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank at the time of the 2008/09 global financial crisis, but before that, as a professor, he published a number of influential articles, specifically on the Great Depression. The Diamond and Dybvi...

Die 2022 Nobelprys vir Ekonomie is gister toegeken aan Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond en Philip Dybvig vir hulle werk oor die bankwese. Bernanke is bekend vir sy rol as voorsitter van die VSA se Federale Reserwebank ten tye van die 2008/09 wêreld finansiële krisis, maar het voor dit as professor ʼn aantal invloedryke artikels gepubliseer, spesifiek oor die Groot Depressie. Die Diamond en Dybvig mode...

Min van ons het gedink dat die Amerikaanse arbeidsmark hierdie jaar so belangrike ekonomiese aanwyser gaan wees, maar Vrydag is hulle non-farm payroll data bekend gemaak en dit was belangrik. Daar is in Septembermaand 263 000 nuwe werksgeleenthede geskep en die werkloosheidskoers het afgeneem vanaf 3,7% na 3,5%. Die gemiddelde verdienste per uur het met 0,3% gestyg en op ʼn jaarbasis staan dit op ‘...

Few of us thought that the American labour market would be such an important economic indicator this year, but on Friday their non-farm payroll data was released and it was important. In September, 263,000 new jobs were created and the unemployment rate decreased from 3.7% to 3.5%. The average earnings per hour rose by 0.3% and on an annual basis, it stands at a 5% increase. All of this matters be...

Om netwerk infrastruktuurdienste soos elektrisiteitsvoorsiening, watervoorsiening en die spoorweë aan die werk te hou is van die belangrikste wat wat die regering kan doen om die ekonomie aan die gang te hou. Die privaatsektor raak toenemend betrokke, maar dit is meer en deels die regering se verantwoordelikheid. Die afgelope weke se beurtkrag, en die wateronderbrekings wat dit tot gevolg gehad he...

Keeping network infrastructure services such as electricity supply, water supply and railways working is one of the most important things the government can do to keep the economy going. The private sector is becoming increasingly involved, but this is by and large still the government's responsibility. The load shedding in recent weeks, and the water shortages it has caused, show how the governme...

On Tuesday I explained that ABSA and the Bureau of Economic Research's Purchasing Managers' Index fell in September and business activity and prospects appear subdued. Yesterday, S&P Global released their South African index and confirmed that private sector activity has been negatively affected by rising inflation and load shedding. Internationally, the chances seem increasingly slim that the...

Dinsdag het ek vertel dat ABSA en die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek se aankopebestuurdersindeks in Septembermaand gedaal het en besigheidsaktiwiteite en-vooruitsigte gedemp voorkom. Gister het S&P Global hulle indeks vir Suid-Afrika bekend gemaak en dit bevestig dat privaatsektor-aktiwiteit negatief geraak word deur stygende inflasie en beurtkrag. Internasionaal lyk die kanse al hoe meer skraa...

Een van die leidende aanwysers van die sakesiklus is nuwe voertuigverkope. Dit is ʼn barometer van hoe dit met verbuikers gaan en syfers oor die verkope van vloot- en kommersiële voertuie asook uitvoer, gee ʼn aanduiding van die sakesektor en die buiteland se vraag. Naamsa het gister Septembermaand se voertuigverkopesyfers bekend gemaak en dit skets ʼn positiewe prentjie in vergelyking met verlede ja...

One of the leading indicators of the business cycle is new vehicle sales. It is a barometer of how consumers are doing and figures on the sales of fleet and commercial vehicles as well as exports, give an indication of business and foreign demand. Yesterday, Naamsa announced September's vehicle sales figures and it paints a positive picture compared to last year. In addition, the price of petrol f...

This week starts with two major economic indicators and unfortunately, neither of them is very positive. ABSA's Purchasing Managers' Index in collaboration with the Bureau of Economic Research decreased to 48.2 points in September. The NWU Business School's Policy Uncertainty Index stands at 59.6 points for the third quarter. * The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Die week begin met twee groot ekonomiese aanwysers en ongelukkig is nie een van hulle baie positief nie. ABSA se aankopebestuurdersindeks in samewerking met die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek het in September afgeneem tot 48,2 punte. Die NWU Sakeskool se Beleidsonsekerheids-indeks staan op 59,6 punte vir die derde kwartaal. * Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Last week, Eskom chief Andre de Ruyter startled us when he spoke on occasion about stage-15 load shedding. I thought everything ends at stage-8. The details are that it was about what will happen when Eskom has to shut down the coal-fired power stations that currently do not meet pollution regulations. If there is already load shedding, most of us surely feel that those stations should just be kep...

Die afgelope week het Eskom hoof Andre de Ruyter ons laat skrik toe hy by geleentheid gepraat het van fase-15 beurtkrag. Ek het gedink alles eindig by fase-8. Die besonderhede is dat dit gegaan het oor wat sal gebeur wanneer Eskom die steenkoolkragstasies moet afskakel wat tans nie aan besoedelingsvoorskrifte voldoen nie. As daar reeds beurtkrag is voel meeste van ons sekerlik dat daardie stasies...

I like to close the week with a few indicators. Statistics South Africa released August's producer price index yesterday. The producer price inflation rate is still very high at 16.6%, but it is slightly lower than in the month of July. The slight easing of the pressure on prices is attributed to the decrease in the fuel price in August. It seems that producer price inflation has also reached a tu...

Ek sluit graag die week af met ʼn klompie aanwysers. Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister Augustusmaand se produsenteprysindeks bekend gemaak. Produsente se inflasiekoers is steeds baie hoog op 16,6%, maar dit is effens laer as in Juliemaand. Die effense vermindering in die druk op pryse word toegeskryf aan die afname in die brandstofprys in Augustus. Dit dan of produsenteprysinflasie ook ʼn draaipunt...

Brittanje se nuwe eerste Minister, Lizz Truss, en Minister van Finansies, Kwasi Kwarteng, het verlede week ‘n groot makroekonomiese beleidsidee gevat en hulle mini-begroting daarop gebou. Die idee kom uit die Aanbodkant-ekonomie en die era van Reaganomics. Hulle mikpunt is 2,5% ekonomiese groei oor die medium termyn en die plan is om die ekonomie te stimuleer met belastingverligting en deregulerin...

Britain's new Prime Minister, Lizz Truss, and Minister of Finance, Kwasi Kwarteng, took a big macroeconomic policy idea last week and built their mini-budget on it. The idea comes from Supply Side Economics and the era of Reaganomics. Their target is 2.5% economic growth over the medium term and the plan is to stimulate the economy with tax relief and deregulation. The more than ₤100 billion stimu...

Yesterday, Statistics South Africa announced the results of the Quarterly Employment Survey. It is different from the labor force survey and the focus is on employment in the formal sector. According to this, employment decreased from the first to the second quarter of the year. There were 22,000 new jobs created, but 141,000 jobs were lost. The survey also provides information on compensation. Th...