Die ekonomie minuut

Die vierde kwartaal van 2023 se BBP en ekonomiese groei syfers is gister bekend gemaak. Die ekonomie het met net 0,1% gegroei. Daar was dus nie ʼn resessie aan die einde van verlede jaar nie, maar ʼn groeikoers van 0,6% vir die hele jaar is heeltemal te laag. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Yesterday was World Obesity Day and experts in the fields of health and nutrition made us aware of the dangers and costs of obesity for individuals and society. But make no mistake, economists also have something to say about this. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Gister was wêreld-obesiteitsdag en kundiges in die velde van gesondheid en voeding het ons opnuut bewus gemaak van die gevare en koste van obesiteit vir individue en die gemeenskap. Maar moet nie ʼn fout maak nie, ekonome het ook iets hieroor te sê. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Last week, a handful of indicators were announced that one should keep an eye on. This includes Absa and the Bureau's Purchasing Managers' Index, as well as new vehicle sales in February. There were also trade balance figures and private sector credit extension. This episode is supported by the Bureau for Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Verlede week is daar ʼn hand vol aanwysers bekend gemaak waarop mens ʼn oog moet hou. Dit sluit in Absa en die Buro se Aankopebestuurdersindeks, asook nuwe voertuigverkope in Februarie. Daar was ook handelsbalanssyfers en kredietverlening aan die privaatsektor. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Yesterday, Statistics South Africa released January's production price index figure. Producer price inflation rose from 4% in December to 4.7% in January. The PPI basket and weights were adjusted for final and intermediate manufactured products. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister Januarie maand se produksieprysindekssyfer bekend gemaak. Produsenteprysinflasie het gestyg vanaf 4% in Desember tot 4,7% in Januarie. Die PPI mandjie en gewigte is aangepas vir finale en intermediêre vervaardigde produkte. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Amongst all the details of the Budget, the Treasury's Macroeconomic Policy Review mentioned last week that they are looking at aligning South Africa's inflation target with that of our peers and trading partners. Does this fall into the category of good idea but bad plan? This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Tussen deur al die besonderhede van die Begroting het die Tesourie se Makro-ekonomiese Beleidsoorsig verlede week laat val dat hulle daarna kyk om Suid-Afrika se inflasiemikpunt in lyn te bring met die van ons eweknieë en handelsvennote. Val dit in die kategorie van goeie idee, maar swak plan? Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

The ratings agency Fitch said this week that the tax revenue budgeted for by the government is optimistic and that the Minister should have budgeted for a bailout for Transnet. The question is not so much whether they are right, but whether we should be worried. This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Die graderingsagenskap, Fitch, het hierdie week gesê dat die belastinginkomste waarvoor die regering begroot optimisties is en dat die Minister moes begroot vir ʼn reddingsboei aan Transnet.  Die vraag is nie soseer of hulle reg is nie, maar of ons bekommerd moet wees? Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Yesterday I said that one should not pay too much attention to politicians' statements shortly before an election, but the government's plans and the ANC's promises are so divergent that it cannot help but create more policy uncertainty. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Ek het gister gesê dat mens jou eerder nie te veel moet steur aan politici se uitsprake kort voor ʼn verkiesing nie, maar die regering se planne en die ANC se beloftes is so uiteenlopend dat dit nie anders kan as om nog eleidsonsekerheid te skep nie. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

What is policy uncertainty? Simply put, it is uncertainty about policy or the consequences of policy. This is often mentioned in the media, it is the focus of an index that Prof Raymond Parsons and I compile and unfortunately there are many examples of it in South Africa. This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Wat is beleidsonsekerheid? Dit is onsekerheid oor beleid of die gevolge van beleid. Dit word gereeld in die media genoem, dit is die fokus van ʼn indeks wat ek en Prof Raymond Parsons saamstel en daar is ongelukkig baie voorbeelde daarvan in Suid-Afrika. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

With all the talk about the Budget Speech, a few other indicators slipped by and today I want to share what happened to unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2023 and consumer price inflation in January. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Met al die gepraat oor die Begrotingsrede het ʼn paar ander aanwysers verby geglip en ek wil vandag vertel wat het gebeur met werkloosheid in die vierde kwartaal van 2023 en verbruikersprysinflasie in Januariemaand. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

The Minister of Finance comfortably sidestepped all the concerns about the Budget and increased his tax revenue a little, had room to increase spending ever so slightly, and to manage the budget deficit and public debt. Things would have looked different if he did not have the R150 billion rand from the profits on the gold and foreign exchange reserves. This time he caught the lifeline. This episo...

Die Minister van Finansies het al die bekommernisse oor die Begroting gesystap en gemaklik sy belastinginkomste bietjie verhoog, ruimte gehad om besteding so bietjie te verhoog, en om die begrotingstekort en staatskuld te bestuur. Dinge sou anders gelyk het as hy nie die R150 miljard rand van die wins op die goud- en buitelandse valuta-reserwes gehad het nie. Hierdie keer het hy die reddingsboei g...

Die Begrotingsrede gaan hoofsaaklik oor die owerheid se planne rondom besteding, belasting en die finansiering van die tekort. Tog is dit ook ʼn geleentheid om meer te sê oor makro-ekonomiese beleid en raak dit aan wat die rol van die staat in die ekonomie moet wees. Vandag se rede gaan ook vir ons meer hiervan vertel. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NW...

The Budget Speech is mainly about the government's plans for spending, taxes and the financing of the deficit. However, it is also an opportunity to say more about macroeconomic policy and it touches on what the role of the state should be in the economy. Today's speech will also tell us more about this. This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business Sc...

One of the policy announcements analysts are waiting for in tomorrow's Budget speech is a fiscal rule or anchor, and a lot has been written about it in the business press in the last day or so. What is it, and can it ensure fiscal discipline? This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Een van die beleidsaankondigings waarvoor ontleders wag in more se Begrotingsrede is ʼn fiskale reël of anker, en daar is die laaste dag of wat heelwat daaroor geskryf in die sake-koerante. Wat is dit, en kan dit werk om fiskale dissipline te verseker. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

On Wednesday afternoon, the Minister of Finance delivers the Budget Speech and it will dominate the economic news this week. Today I just want to give a brief summary of what the experts expect. This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Woensdagmiddag lewer die Minister van Finansies die Begrotingsrede en dit gaan hierdie week die ekonomiese nuus oorheers. Vandag wil ek net ʼn kort opsomming gee van wat die kenners verwag. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.