Die ekonomie minuut

Over last week, I discussed a few important indicators. The South African economy narrowly avoided a recession in the fourth quarter of last year, but in the first quarter of this year things don't look much better and business confidence is low. And there are a few more pieces of news that clarify things. This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU...

Ek het so deur die loop van verlede week ʼn paar belangrike aanwysers bespreek. Die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie het in die vierde kwartaal van verlede jaar net net ʼn resessie vermy, maar in die eerste kwartaal van hierdie jaar lyk dinge nie veel beter nie en sakevertroue is gedemp. Daar was darem nog ʼn paar stukkies nuus wat dinge toelig. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese On...

This is not a market report, but every now and then something pops up in the markets that I have to talk about. The gold price is at a record high and no one is quite sure why. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Hierdie is nie ʼn markteverslag nie, maar af en toe duik daar iets op in die markte waaroor ek moet praat. Die goudprys is op ʼn rekord hoogtepunt en niemand is mooi seker hoekom nie. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

RMB and the Bureau of Economic Research's Business Confidence Index number for the first quarter was announced yesterday and business confidence is even lower than at the end of last year. Seven out of ten survey participants are unsatisfied with business conditions. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

RMB en die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek se Sakevertroue indeks vir die eerste kwartaal is gister bekend gemaak en sakevertroue is nog laer as einde verlede jaar. Sewe uit elke tien deelnemers aan die opname is nie tevrede met besigheidstoestande nie. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

The fourth quarter of 2023's GDP and economic growth figures were announced yesterday. The economy grew by just 0.1%. That means we narrowly missed falling into a recession at the end of last year, but a growth rate of 0.6% for the whole year is far too low. This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Die vierde kwartaal van 2023 se BBP en ekonomiese groei syfers is gister bekend gemaak. Die ekonomie het met net 0,1% gegroei. Daar was dus nie ʼn resessie aan die einde van verlede jaar nie, maar ʼn groeikoers van 0,6% vir die hele jaar is heeltemal te laag. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Yesterday was World Obesity Day and experts in the fields of health and nutrition made us aware of the dangers and costs of obesity for individuals and society. But make no mistake, economists also have something to say about this. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Gister was wêreld-obesiteitsdag en kundiges in die velde van gesondheid en voeding het ons opnuut bewus gemaak van die gevare en koste van obesiteit vir individue en die gemeenskap. Maar moet nie ʼn fout maak nie, ekonome het ook iets hieroor te sê. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Last week, a handful of indicators were announced that one should keep an eye on. This includes Absa and the Bureau's Purchasing Managers' Index, as well as new vehicle sales in February. There were also trade balance figures and private sector credit extension. This episode is supported by the Bureau for Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Verlede week is daar ʼn hand vol aanwysers bekend gemaak waarop mens ʼn oog moet hou. Dit sluit in Absa en die Buro se Aankopebestuurdersindeks, asook nuwe voertuigverkope in Februarie. Daar was ook handelsbalanssyfers en kredietverlening aan die privaatsektor. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

Yesterday, Statistics South Africa released January's production price index figure. Producer price inflation rose from 4% in December to 4.7% in January. The PPI basket and weights were adjusted for final and intermediate manufactured products. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister Januarie maand se produksieprysindekssyfer bekend gemaak. Produsenteprysinflasie het gestyg vanaf 4% in Desember tot 4,7% in Januarie. Die PPI mandjie en gewigte is aangepas vir finale en intermediêre vervaardigde produkte. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Amongst all the details of the Budget, the Treasury's Macroeconomic Policy Review mentioned last week that they are looking at aligning South Africa's inflation target with that of our peers and trading partners. Does this fall into the category of good idea but bad plan? This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Tussen deur al die besonderhede van die Begroting het die Tesourie se Makro-ekonomiese Beleidsoorsig verlede week laat val dat hulle daarna kyk om Suid-Afrika se inflasiemikpunt in lyn te bring met die van ons eweknieë en handelsvennote. Val dit in die kategorie van goeie idee, maar swak plan? Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

The ratings agency Fitch said this week that the tax revenue budgeted for by the government is optimistic and that the Minister should have budgeted for a bailout for Transnet. The question is not so much whether they are right, but whether we should be worried. This episode is supported by Economic Research Southern Africa and the NWU Business School.

Die graderingsagenskap, Fitch, het hierdie week gesê dat die belastinginkomste waarvoor die regering begroot optimisties is en dat die Minister moes begroot vir ʼn reddingsboei aan Transnet.  Die vraag is nie soseer of hulle reg is nie, maar of ons bekommerd moet wees? Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur Economic Research Southern Africa en die NWU Sakeskool.

Yesterday I said that one should not pay too much attention to politicians' statements shortly before an election, but the government's plans and the ANC's promises are so divergent that it cannot help but create more policy uncertainty. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Ek het gister gesê dat mens jou eerder nie te veel moet steur aan politici se uitsprake kort voor ʼn verkiesing nie, maar die regering se planne en die ANC se beloftes is so uiteenlopend dat dit nie anders kan as om nog eleidsonsekerheid te skep nie. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

What is policy uncertainty? Simply put, it is uncertainty about policy or the consequences of policy. This is often mentioned in the media, it is the focus of an index that Prof Raymond Parsons and I compile and unfortunately there are many examples of it in South Africa. This episode is supported by the Bureau of Economic Research in Stellenbosch and the NWU Business School.

Wat is beleidsonsekerheid? Dit is onsekerheid oor beleid of die gevolge van beleid. Dit word gereeld in die media genoem, dit is die fokus van ʼn indeks wat ek en Prof Raymond Parsons saamstel en daar is ongelukkig baie voorbeelde daarvan in Suid-Afrika. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek in Stellenbosch en die NWU Sakeskool.

With all the talk about the Budget Speech, a few other indicators slipped by and today I want to share what happened to unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2023 and consumer price inflation in January. This episode is supported by the NWU Business School.

Met al die gepraat oor die Begrotingsrede het ʼn paar ander aanwysers verby geglip en ek wil vandag vertel wat het gebeur met werkloosheid in die vierde kwartaal van 2023 en verbruikersprysinflasie in Januariemaand. Hierdie episode word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

The Minister of Finance comfortably sidestepped all the concerns about the Budget and increased his tax revenue a little, had room to increase spending ever so slightly, and to manage the budget deficit and public debt. Things would have looked different if he did not have the R150 billion rand from the profits on the gold and foreign exchange reserves. This time he caught the lifeline. This episo...