Confluence Podcasts

For years, US Treasury bonds have been viewed as a safe-haven place for investors to hold cash, both to stabilize portfolios and await future opportunities. But perhaps that is no longer the case. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the Magnificent 7 stocks have become a legitimate safe haven.

The regime change in Syria has sent shock ways across the Middle East. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to look at what might be going on beneath the surface and help investors understand the potential impact on portfolios.

Confluence's official 2025 Outlook anticipates continued-but-moderating economic growth, sticky inflation, and limited interest rate cuts, which will lay the ground work for the asset class returns in the new year. One of the co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, joins the podcast to examine the main themes of Confluence's expectations and how investors can ut...

In this episode, members of the Confluence Macroeconomic Team sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2025. Six big picture trends that are guideposts for Confluence's investment recommendations are discussed including American hegemony, China's economic growth, and the continuing problems in the Middle East. 

When one looks at the total world of investing, it makes sense that a high amount held in money market funds might subtract from total assets invested in stocks, and stock valuations might shrink as a result. But, clearly, that equation has not been working lately. Bill O'Grady, Advisory Director of Market Strategy at Confluence, discusses what this might portend for the stock market. 

 How did the decisive November election results impact the bond market? Contrary to expectations, voters rendered a quick and clear outcome. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady discusses the post-election environment for bonds.

Important developments in the Ukraine war this year include Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region of Russia. Another is the subject of this week's discussion:  North Korea's agreement to send troops to Russia to help in its war effort. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to explain why investors should take notice.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings...

There are several ways we could approach the subject of tariffs - a major topic of discussion in the recent US election season. Tariffs can be seen as both a geopolitical and economic tool. Geopolitical because they could penalize imports from our main rival China, and economic because tariffs might boost US domestic industries that are currently threatened by cheap imports. However, tariffs also...

We're talking big numbers today, US national debt numbers. Back in July, the Treasury department reported that our national debt exceeded $35 trillion for the first time, and at the current pace will top $56 trillion by 2034. It's hard to get your mind around numbers like these, and it's no wonder many commentators are sounding the alarm. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adle...

The inflation adjustment for 2025 Social Security benefits has been announced, but do the financial markets even care? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact on markets and portfolios.

National security agendas might never be the same after pagers and walkie-talkies mysteriously exploded in the hands of Hezbollah militants about a month ago. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady and Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explore how this groundbreaking attack will likely lead to costly changes in global supply chains and how investment strategies...

Does the recent un-inversion of the yield curve create an opportunity on the long end for bond investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to take a look.

As election day nears, this week's report explores foreign policy differences between the two US presidential candidates, which could have investment implications. Confluence Associate Market Strategists Daniel Ortwerth and Thomas Wash discuss those differences and what they could mean for investors.

With the presidential election coming up, we will consider a timely topic this week: Does the stock market prefer one of the two major political parties? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to take us on a trip through recent history. 

For investors, it can be pretty easy to overreact to day-to-day market moving events. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how a long-term roadmap can help investors resist emotional decisions, and why recognizing global megatrends is a key part of the process at Confluence.

Large cap stocks aren't what they used to be. Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors who are looking for dividends may need to refocus.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings, takes listeners through the investment team's decisions. 

Is a strong US dollar a good or bad thing for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses prospects for the dollar in a fracturing world and explains the process the Confluence macro team uses to measure the strength of the US dollar.

One of the challenges for fixed income investors is figuring out what part of the yield curve is most attractive and carries the least risk at any particular time. Some market observers who worry about overstimulation of the economy are pointing an accusatory finger at the US Treasury. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to unravel the various points of view and ex...

As the Federal Reserve delayed interest rate cuts this year, signs of impatience have become more evident. For one thing, we've read and heard opinions in recent months questioning the current working relationship between the Fed and the federal government known as central bank independence. The bottom line seems to be that the Fed might be more responsive to the desires of the people if the execu...

China's effort to control the South China Sea and push back against the Philippines is at the top of Confluence's list of potentially game-changing geopolitical events for the rest of the year.  In this episode, Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth makes the case that understanding the motivations of Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. may help investors prepare for a range of outcom...

A traditional formula to predict gold prices no longer seems to work. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady discusses why investors should take notice. 

A tilt to the right in European politics has markets taking notice. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins host Phil Adler to give an overview and discuss investment opportunities that may have been created as a result.

Small cap stocks may be poised for a rebound. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to explain why.