Confluence Podcasts

Welcome to the Mid-Year Outlook from Confluence Investment Management. Several Confluence macro analysts join the podcast to discuss this report: Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, and Associate Market Strategists Thomas Wash and Daniel Ortwerth. Some of the themes discussed this week will be familiar to regular listeners of our bi-...

A comparison between copper and gold prices has in the past been a reasonably reliable predictor of bond yields, but it looks like this indicator no longer works. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why this is so.

The South China Sea is yet another geopolitical danger zone in a rapidly dividing world that demands investor attention. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the history of a territorial dispute that has the potential to erupt.

Inflation in the United States may be cooling somewhat, but we are still not close to achieving the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the 2% target might change and how markets might react to that.

Immigration is certainly one of the top political issues that Americans are considering this election year. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain how investors might fold this issue, with all its complexities, into their investment strategies.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee.

As the conflict in Gaza and the protests command our attention, a better understanding of the deep divisions in the Middle East might increase our confidence as we make key investment decisions. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins host Phil Adler to help us gain perspective.

The changing face of war makes it difficult for investors to identify exactly when war begins, when it ends, and when is the right time to implement a war-time investment strategy. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth offers some guidance.

The recent rally in the price of uranium appears to be more than just a flash in the pan. Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on a major reason for this development that may be somewhat overlooked.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 stock index was among the best performing in the world in 2023 and recently reached an all-time high. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the reasons for the surge and whether there is room to grow from here.

Ukraine, Gaza, and Taiwan aren't the only hotspots in the world. In South America, oil-rich Venezuela is threatening its much smaller neighbor Guyana, which recently came into major oil reserves of its own. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to unravel the history of this dispute, discuss what's at stake for the US, and why investors should pay attention.

Sometimes words can be just as powerful or even more so than actions. Just consider the Federal Reserve. Fed officials can greatly influence investor behavior by the words they speak or write. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how the Federal Reserve may be employing the spoken or written word, specifically with its forward guidance tool, to create a ra...

Could the defense industry, at some point, challenge technology for stock market leadership? Members from the Confluence macro team discuss why the rebirth of US nuclear deterrence policy appears to be a game changer on many levels.

In October 2023, the Asset Allocation Committee introduced an ETF focused on uranium and uranium producers into its mid-cap equity exposure as part of their regular quarterly update. The price of that ETF has surged since Confluence bought it, adding to the returns of the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios to date. Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to explain what...

China's economic problems seem to be numerous. They include falling consumer prices, a struggling stock market, plunging property values, sluggish growth, and rising debt. Is current Chinese leadership to blame for these problems, or is it something deeper? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss why addressing this question is important.

The rising federal budget deficit begs a key question with major implications for investors. How painful will it be for the government to finance all that debt or will there be enough buyers of all those new US Treasurys to prevent an ugly turn for the markets? Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how fixed income investors might navi...

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee.

As the US slowly withdraws from its status as the world's policeman and as countries realign into separate economic and political blocs, both the strategies and the costs of preventing war change. As the task of preventing war becomes more difficult, the risks change as well. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez and Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth discuss these i...

It may come as a bit of a surprise that oil production in the U.S. has reached a record high. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss the reasons for this surge in production and the impact on prices and investments.

The creation of the U.S. Space Force in 2019 did not come out of the blue but recognized a new reality. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth asserts that investors should pay attention.

A sometimes overlooked financial report may give us insight about the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.  Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain.

The war in Ukraine seems to have entered a new phase. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez considers what investors might do to prepare for a range of possible outcomes.

Confluence's official 2024 Outlook anticipates a slowing U.S. economy and continued risk of recession. As the title of the report indicates, economic activity with slowing momentum is more susceptible to a negative shock. The co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez and Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash, join the podcast to examine the main themes of their e...

Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2024. The first issue discussed is titled “the jungle grows back,” which could also be considered the overall theme of the report. As U.S. hegemony wanes, long-forgotten conflicts are reigniting, thus increasing global turmoil and forcing th...

For stock investors, the initial rally was impressive, but does the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate hikes signal the market's advance has room to grow further? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to tell us the answer is a bit complicated.