Confluence Podcasts

Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller explore why investors should resist the temptation to abandon their core investment style during periods of market momentum. They unpack how oil prices surprisingly avoided a spike given recent events in the Strait of Hormuz, with a note of caution for future changes as the world adjusts. The conversation turns to Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting and a likely shift tow...

In our latest episode, the Confluence Macroeconomic Team breaks down the six geopolitical trends that we believe will shape the international landscape in the second half of 2026. From the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the future of the dollar's reserve currency status, to the government's growing role in AI and the rise of quantum computing, the conversation covers the issues most likel...

Today's tech giants are poised for a maturity shift over the coming years, transitioning from high growth companies into more established market leaders. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why the technology companies of tomorrow may look like the utility companies of today.

History is rhyming. The last time dividend stocks were this out of favor, the dot-com bubble was peaking. Portfolio Manager Tom Dugan joins Director of RIA Relationships Emily D'Agostino to discuss why that dynamic looks a lot like 1999, what the historical data says about what comes next, and why the Confluence IDEA strategy's quarter-century of consistent philosophy and construction may be preci...

There was a bit of welcome news for consumers as world oil prices were moderating in early June even though the Strait of Hormuz remained essentially closed. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to explain why and discuss whether this is just a short-term phenomenon.

One long trusted economic indicator may no longer reliably indicate a noninflationary environment. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how governments might be misled and what investors should watch for.

It may have taken a back seat among recent news headlines, but there has been a big shakeup within OPEC. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss what this may mean for investors.

In the latest Confluence Mailbag, Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller revisit their long-held forecast that US hegemony is in decline and consider what a return to a multipolar world order could mean for investors, outlining the shifts and surprises that may shape the evolving geopolitical landscape. The discussion examines the underappreciated economic risks of the Iran conflict, the implications of a 1...

Financial markets appear adjusting to the reality of tariffs. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss what we have learned in the past year and how that impacts investment planning.

Something unusual happened to the price of gold as the Iran war broke out. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss what happened and what this might mean for the future.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings...

Europe is playing catch up to try to close the AI gap with the United States and China. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the hurdles and the potential and how investors might profit.

Of what value to investors is a Federal Reserve Board chair who is a consensus builder? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to tell us why this is important. 

In this month's Confluence Mailbag, Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller examine what Iran's shift to yuan-denominated oil transactions means for the dollar's reserve currency status and why viable alternatives remain elusive. They assess widespread concerns around private credit, weigh the broader economic ramifications of the Iran conflict — including the collapse of just-in-time inventory thinking — an...

The world has seen additional evidence this year that the United States is no longer the dominant power it once was. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how investors can manage this new reality.

The war in Iran is an event that is likely to change for the long term the way corporations manage their supply inventories. Think high instead of just in time. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss why this matters a lot for investors.

As the Strait Of Hormuz remains closed due to the war with Iran, Western nations have only limited tools to try to keep the price of oil in check. One strategy is to release stored oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss how effective this tool might be.

Investors have already experienced dramatic initial volatility, but it appears that the war in Iran may also have significant long-term impacts on the financial markets. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss what these impacts might be.

Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller tackle some pressing market topics, opening with a nuanced look at how the conflict in Iran might unfold and what current market expectations may be overlooking. They discuss the concentration risk embedded in passive investing and how investors can navigate it, before turning to the shifting dynamics and recent headlines in private credit, including their perspective...

Now is a great time to revisit the Case for Hard Assets, an investment area that’s drawing considerable interest these days. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O’Grady draws on his deep expertise in commodities to explain the asset class and the firm’s Global Hard Assets strategy. He outlines the investment team’s macro-driven decision‑making process, offers insight into the curr...

After the war with Iran began, the dollar recorded its largest weekly advance since November 2024. But another traditional favorite destination for investors seeking safety, long term Treasury bonds, performed very different. In this week's report, Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez asks the question, are long term Treasurys no longer a safe haven? The answer to this quest...

The increased supply of dollar-backed stablecoins has the potential for wide-ranging impacts, including support for the dollar and an infusion perhaps of demand for US Treasurys. It also is making US banks nervous. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss the possibilities and the investment implications.

Younger investors appear to have more influence on the stock market than they used to and there are signs that they are becoming more cautious. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash explores what may be driving this shift and the potential fallout in this week's report. This episode accompanies the written report by the same title, published on March 2, 2026.

The subject this week is China and how the purge of government officials going on inside that country might eventually impact investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez lends us his perspective, gained from his many years of experience in both the financial and government sectors. This episode accompanies the written report by the same title, published on February 23, 2...

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.