Confluence Podcasts

Tax and spending bills always have the potential to shake up the financial markets. One provision inside this year's bill gets some special attention in this week's report. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and certified business economist, Thomas Wash, joins Phil Adler to discuss Section 899, also known as the revenge tax.

It may be logical to assume that economically speaking as Germany goes, so goes Europe. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler with a profile of Germany's new chancellor and what investors can expect from his leadership.

The economy and the stock market have been resilient in the face of soft looking economic data, a troubling bond market, and warnings by economists that a recession is drawing ever closer. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and certified business economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why, so far, this is an economy that won't die.

Europe's potential as an investment destination appears bright but realizing that potential depends on how the continent responds to the new geopolitics and the military threat from Russia. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on a key region where Europe is vulnerable, the Baltics. 

In our new podcast series, Confluence will address your most frequent, thought-provoking, and insightful questions, drawing on our years of experience and expertise. The inaugural episode features Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, as they discuss a range of timely topics from changes in the 10-year Treasury to global defense spending in the current geopol...

The recent sharp sell off in Japanese bonds has worrisome implications for investors across the globe. Confluence Associate Market Analyst Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss where this might be heading.

The US attention paid to Greenland, which has created headlines recently, should not be ignored by investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler today to discuss why Greenland matters.

President Trump has withdrawn his threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for the time being, but the administration continues to criticize the Fed for postponing interest rate cuts and for its quantitative tightening policy, which increases the amount of bonds available in the market and thus requires higher interest rates to attract buyers. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Th...

The race between the United States and China for military superiority will continue to have major implications for investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to give us an update on the US-China military balance of power.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings...

Oh, what a difference one quarter can make! The mood has certainly changed on Wall Street since the beginning of the year as investors seem to be losing confidence in US economic growth. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez reminds us what the market expectations were like back in January, examines the current evidence of what may be ahead for US investments, and discusses t...

Tariffs may be the most noticeable but they're not the only strategy in the economic conflict between the US and China. In this episode, Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses how export controls are amplifying the conflict and the message for investors.

The recent outperformance of European stocks has been noteworthy. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why this may only be the beginning.

Should the current strain in traditional US alliances prompt investors to consider an immediate strategy adjustment? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to answer that question and explain the detailed approach Confluence takes to evaluate this issue.

It appears a slowdown now underway may be part of the Trump administration's economic plan. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses why investors should pay close attention to how well any slowdown is managed. 

Are Trump tariffs working as the administration expected? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to unpack the Trump strategy and give us some advice about dealing with extreme market volatility and risk.

It might be time to take a new look at the relationship between inflation and stock market performance. The old adage is that inflation is bad for stocks. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth suggests that it might be wiser today to view equities as an inflation hedge.

Many stock markets in The Middle East are growing in market cap, and investors are paying attention. Confluence Associate Market Strategist, Daniel Ortwerth, joins Phil Adler to take a closer look at one of the recent standouts, United Arab Emirates, and to tackle the question, is it the right time to invest there?

Mortgage rates in the neighborhood of 7% are dampening housing demand leading into what is normally a busy time of year for sales. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why long-term interest rates have been slow to come down even after the Federal Reserve lowered short-term rates.

 In an increasingly confrontational world, you can add sanctions to what seems like an expanding field of investment risks. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to help investors identify and respond to sanctions risk. 

The initial Trump tariffs did have an impact on financial markets, but the takeaway might not be what many investors expect. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how we might fold what we've learned so far about the Trump tariffs into our investment strategies. 

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Listeners might be surprised to learn which foreign stock markets are growing the fastest. Growth is not necessarily a reason to invest in these markets, but they might deserve a second look, and Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to provide just that.

Investors looking for the next big opportunity might do best by not straying too far afield. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss why the US economy and US stocks still look plenty attractive.

American foreign policy and trade policy are likely to experience major changes under the new Trump administration. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on the potential upsides and downsides of these changes and how they might impact investments.