Confluence Podcasts

While the U.S. Federal Reserve appears to be in the early stages of raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet with the goal of reining in inflation, something quite different is happening in Japan. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the implications of the Bank of Japan's policy and why U.S. investors should take notice.

While the Ukraine war gets the headlines, the next hotspot for confrontation between the West and Russia may be forming relatively unnoticed, at least by many of us. Confluence's analysts have been closely watching recent events in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss why he thinks this country might become Russia's next target.

Investors looking for suitable investments in emerging markets might want to consider Latin America. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins this episode to discuss the LatAm underperformance over the past decade and the investment prospects going forward given the current boost in commodity prices.

The announcement by various countries that they'll bulk up defense spending in the wake of the Ukraine war has investment implications as well as geopolitical ones. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today to discuss the ramifications.

Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady delves into the first update of Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion is on the hawkish adjustment to monetary policy and four scenarios for the path of policy.

Today, we discuss commodity prices. How does the recent price surge rate in historical terms, and is this time ominously different for consumers because of the Ukraine war? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives some perspective by comparing the recent surge in prices to what we've experienced in the past.

How has the Ukraine war changed the investment environment and are these changes likely to be long-lasting or short-lived? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady tackles these questions.

The attention we pay to inflation these days may lead us to overlook other important economic information that builds the framework for successful investment decisions. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon Hernandez joins this week's episode to discuss what we're missing by devoting so much attention to inflation.

Confluence's published geopolitical report this week looks at what appears to be an unusual economic experiment going on in Turkey: President Erdogan is refusing to allow the central bank to raise interest rates to contain rapidly rising inflation, meanwhile the Turkish currency, the lira, has been plummeting in value. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives his analysis of Turkey's unorthodox...

The shape of the U.S. economy is dominated these days by what appear to be pandemic-related distortions. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how we got to where we are, what can be done about it, and where we might find the most bang right now for our investment dollars.

The latest geopolitical report from Confluence addressed some of the key questions regarding Ukraine, including the possible impact on investments. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez join today's episode to explore possible long-term ramifications stemming from the crisis (understanding that current events are fast-moving and headlines may have chan...

Recent volatility in financial markets and persistent geopolitical risks create an opportunity for a fresh look at gold prices. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses gold prices and whether our short-term outlook has changed.

While the West has been focused on the Russian threat to invade Ukraine and expand its sphere of influence there, recent developments in another former Soviet republic, Kazakhstan, have also appeared to increase Russian influence and have important implications for world energy prices. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today with some analysis on the situation.

Will consumers keep consuming enough to sustain economic growth if interest rates rise? The answer might begin to emerge as we explore a separate question in today's discussion with Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady: what exactly drives consumption? Is it a rise in real income or is it an increase in the "wealth effect"?

Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady joins host Phil Adler to explore the highlights from Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion is on policy expectations and potential risks for this year.

We’ve written extensively about the worsening geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, which have already affected investors. In our "2022 Geopolitical Outlook" published in December, we identified China as the #1 geopolitical issue to impact financial markets and investment policy for the foreseeable future. In the inaugural episode of Confluence's new Geopolitical Podcast serie...

When will the Federal Reserve begin a much-anticipated series of rate hikes in order to tame inflation? Many, if not most, market analysts are predicting more than one rate hike and perhaps as many as four in 2022, but Confluence goes against the grain on this issue. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady explains why the Fed may delay rate hikes until 2023.

What's causing it and should we be worried? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez takes a look at the flattening bond yield curve and explains how inflation and Fed rate hike expectations have affected it.

Bill O’Grady, Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, and Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, discuss the geopolitical problems that could affect regional stability with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Risks to Iran, India, China, Russia, and the “stans” are discussed, including the potential for a refugee crisis that might spread beyond the region.

The emergence of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron, appears to have changed inflation expectations at the Fed and gave financial markets quite a jolt as well when the news came out. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses what may be the reasoning behind Chair Powell's change of heart and the possible impact on investors.

As inflation heats up, will gold prices do the same? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives an update on the price of gold.

President Biden has some open positions to fill on the Federal Reserve Board, and the process bears close watching as the market anticipates future decisions on interest rates. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how the policy tilt of the Fed could change based not only on who is chosen, but also the speed at which positions are filled.

Where are bond yields headed? An index that may be little-known among many investors, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, might provide some valuable clues. Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explains what this index measures and how it's proving to be a fairly accurate predictor of future bond yields.

Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady is here to discuss the market's influence on the Fed. Can we, with any confidence, look to the performance of financial markets for clues as to when the Federal Reserve will move on interest rates? Isn't the Fed supposed to prioritize inflation and employment as factors in its decision-making rather than rescuing the markets?

Raising the federal debt limit has reemerged this fall as a political issue with the potential to impact the financial markets. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the current standoff over the debt limit and the investment implications.