Confluence Podcasts

Where are bond yields headed? And what does this mean for bond investors? The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has been rising as the Fed increases rates, but it is not in line with Confluence's current estimates. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast this week to help us make sense of the current bond market.

The emergence of right-wing leaders in Great Britain and Italy adds a new layer of volatility and uncertainty to financial markets in Europe and around the world. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez offers analysis and advice for investors. While there are notable differences between these separate political events, Patrick identifies the key similarities and discusses where thes...

Why is gold performance underwhelming in the face of high inflation? We're hearing this question from investors, so Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady takes a look at gold this week and adds some color to the research discussed in our associated written report.

Recent dramatic and surprising gains by Ukraine in its war with Russia have brought political and investment implications. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez join this week's episode to discuss updates on how the war has progressed along with its impact on the ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in light of Russia's weakened p...

The Federal Reserve has made no secret of its intent to curb inflation by means of interest rate hikes, even if economic pain is the result. The Fed's hope, of course, is that any slowdown or recession will be mild. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today to discuss why present Fed policy is more likely to lead to a deeper recession than the stock market currently anticip...

Recession fears can greatly impact investments, so it makes sense that financial markets are focused today on when, and if, a recession might occur. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady offers his thoughts.

Might food be weaponized in a deglobalized world with at least two sharply divided political and economic groupings, one dominated by the U.S. and the other by China? Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the latest in his series of reports on how deglobalization could impact investors.

When the July Consumer Price Index was released earlier this month, the stock market rallied on hopes that inflation has peaked and the Fed might be less inclined to raise interest rates. Was it a case of over-optimism? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady reviews the numbers that were so well-received by financial markets and the arguments on both sides of the theory that inflation has...

We return to a theme familiar to anyone who has been listening to us for a while--the decline of globalization and the implications for investors. The vehicle for our discussion today is a book that appeared for a while this year on the New York Times non-fiction bestseller list, titled "The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization" by Peter Zeihan. Confluence...

Bill O’Grady, Chief Market Strategist, joins host Phil Adler in looking at the second update of Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion is on the impact of the Ukraine war and the financial markets’ discounting of a potential recession next year.

What do current levels of household debt portend for the economy and for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us to discuss the path consumer debt followed to arrive at the level where it is today and where it fits in the investment equation.

The investment world seems more unstable these days as COVID and the Ukraine war are causing major shifts in economies and contributing to political crises for some top U.S. allies. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez examines the recent political events in Japan, the U.K., and Italy and discusses their common features and implications for investors.

For most of us, the current state of the economy is a huge factor in our investment decisions, but correctly parsing the economic data can be challenging. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins today's podcast with a warning: don't be fooled by a low unemployment rate. It may not reflect a healthy labor market.

If one keeps up with the news, they will hear reports of widening income and wealth inequality in the U.S. According to the Census Bureau, in 2020, the top 20% of the U.S. population earned over half of all U.S. income, and the top 5% earned nearly a quarter of all income. This week's geopolitical report looks at how the pandemic has affected inequality in America. Confluence Market Strategy Inter...

We've heard a lot about the challenges for the U.S. Federal Reserve as it tries to strike a balance between sustaining economic growth and battling inflation. The European Central Bank is also engaged in a challenging balancing act, trying to keep sovereign bond yields among its country members in line with each other as the ECB prepares to raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade....

Following the Fed's decision to raise interest rates, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that the Fed's goal is to bring about 2% inflation while keeping unemployment down. But, achieving the first goal will almost certainly mean a weakening labor market. How do you sell the necessity of a weakening labor market to the public? The Fed appears to have a strategy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist...

It's time for the Confluence Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: a look at world events likely to drive markets for the rest of the year and how investments might be aligned to accommodate the dominant trends. Confluence's market strategists identify seven major events and list the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of each.

The homebuilder sector is no longer overweight in the Confluence Asset Allocation strategies for stocks. Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explains the recent downgrade of the sector and the various forces driving the housing industry as a whole.

In Confluence's geopolitical report from May 9, 2022, we projected a world devolving into two major economic and political blocs: U.S.-led and China-led. In many ways, this process has already begun and the Ukraine war is serving as an accelerant. Countries within the China-led bloc are likely to be poor and more populous but they do include many major commodity producers, which is our focus today...

As we read various comments from Federal Reserve officials, it appears the Fed is making no bones about it: the drive to bring down inflation by raising interest rates will result in some financial pain. We can't help but wonder how much financial pain for consumers will the Fed tolerate? And if the pain becomes too bad, will the Fed be able to manage it? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'...

Because of the Ukraine war, North Korea may have attracted less geopolitical scrutiny lately but its nuclear ambitions remain strong. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss why North Korea continues to deserve the attention of investors. What is Kim Jong-un trying to accomplish with his periodic nuclear saber-rattling?

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates earlier this month may have been widely expected but the financial markets' reaction up to this point has still been highly volatile. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to talk about the longer-term implications for investors.

A world with at least two sharply divided political and economic groupings seems more and more likely as globalization retreats in the face of new trade, immigration, and political barriers, and the Ukraine war appears to be accelerating the process. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses what this new world might look like and what investors should watch for, including fi...

It makes sense that as consumers our expectations for the economy influence our current spending decisions; that's why investment strategists pay so much attention to measures of consumer sentiment. Lately, two major readings of sentiment have started to diverge. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash helps us make sense of these results.

Financial sanctions levied against Russia because of the Ukraine war included freezing Russia's holdings of dollars in foreign banks. This action may have a long-term impact on the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the investment implications of the ripple effects from these sanctions.