Confluence Podcasts

Social security recipients will be getting a raise next year: cost of living adjustment (COLA) announced by the federal government is 5.9%. Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how the social security COLA impacts the economy and how it compares to other years.

The pandemic has shown that globalization is ill-suited to deal with global supply shocks. In this week's episode, Staff Economist Thomas Wash elaborates on the supply chain breakdown and explores the impact on inflation and the dilemma it poses for the Federal Reserve.

Has Bitcoin become a substitute for gold, and is there a fit for Bitcoin within a risk-sensitive investment portfolio? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez addresses these questions by taking a statistical approach.

We return to the subject of inflation this week. Staff Economist Thomas Wash looks at a more positive recent inflationary trend, month-over-month inflation numbers, and what these figures can tell us about the strength and staying power of inflation that we don't get from the year-over-year numbers.

"Is it transitory?" This is the question we're hearing everywhere about inflation. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses whether we should worry that the inflation we're experiencing today will last even when the pandemic diminishes.

The Federal Reserve is closely watching the labor force for clues on how quickly the economy is recovering as it considers its timetable for withdrawing stimulus and eventually raising rates. Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses the size of the workforce and how quickly workers are reentering the jobs market now that enhanced unemployment benefits have expired.

It appears likely that Jerome Powell will be nominated by President Biden to serve another term as Fed Chair, but that doesn't mean there isn't significant opposition. The nature of this opposition calls into question the fundamental relationship between the Fed and Congress, which could eventually have a significant impact on investors. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the likelihoo...

When will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? The timing of Fed action will depend on how quickly America emerges from the pandemic-induced recession; how fast jobs recover is one way to measure that. To address this issue, we look at the composition of the FOMC and the history of monetary policy in past recoveries.

How is the pandemic affecting the labor market? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses which effects represent a continuation, or acceleration, of previous trends and which are brand new to the labor market as a result of the pandemic.

What are the implications of growing intellectual property investment? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez focuses on the growing importance of intellectual property investment by U.S. corporations and the implications for individual investors.

How does unified government affect long-duration bond yields? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, examines the statistical evidence.

Where are bond yields likely headed? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, looks at bond yields, focusing on the 10-year Treasury note.

What are the implications for investors and for the world economy of high corporate debt in China? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses this question.

How stable is the labor market? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at the current state of the labor market.

What do the Distributional Financial Accounts data tell us about the economy and financial system? As a follow-up to the Flow of Funds data, Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses how this subsequent release offers a deeper dive into the previous numbers.

Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discuss the geopolitics of Taiwan and the risks to globalization presented by the concentration of the semiconductor industry on the island of Taiwan. Topics include the issue of strategic ambiguity, the potential chokepoint that Taiwan’s semiconductor’s industry represents, and the issue of Taiwan/China unificatio...

What does the Flow of Funds data tell us about the economy and financial system? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at this latest report from the Federal Reserve for insights on the economy and investment environment.

How are "base effects" affecting today's economic and financial data? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, reviews what we mean when we talk about "base effects" and how the year-over-year comparisons change our perceptions.

Should we be concerned with the rise in inflation expectations? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, addresses the relationship between inflation expectations and actual inflation.

What is behind the recent rally in gold? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, reviews the recent performance of gold prices and reasons for the price action.

Why aren't people returning to the labor force? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at the labor shortage we're seeing in workplaces as the threat of the pandemic wanes and the economy opens up.

Is the Canadian housing market a bubble ready to pop? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, looks at the housing market in Canada and whether a price bubble is forming there.

How does the Confluence Asset Allocation Committee forecast? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses the process the Confluence asset allocation investment team uses to arrive at its economic forecasts, which are the basis for the firm's asset allocation recommendations.

Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez authored a five-part series earlier this year on the balance of power between the US and China (published January 11 - February 22). His reports offer a comprehensive view of the relative power of the US and China in various areas, including military, economic, and diplomatic. In Part I, Patrick and host Phil Adler examined China’s goals and as...

Will rising rent and home prices impact CPI? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at how increasing housing costs will impact the Consumer Price Index.