The Numbers

On this episode of The Numbers , we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario. In the mailba...

As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer your questions, including: Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter? Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"? Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time? Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling metho...

On this week's episode of The Numbers , we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings. For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more bye...

On this week's episode of The Numbers , we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for Éric in...

This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C. and a question from the mailbag on the federal by...

This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we close with a birthday-themed Quiz. To join the Disco...

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss some BIG numbers that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are putting up in both national polls and first-quarter fundraising. What does this mean for Justin Trudeau? Plus, we chat about an odd poll out of British Columbia ahead of that province's fall election. In our mailbag, we answer a question on Poilievre and the PPC vote, and Philippe takes no p...

This week, we assess the pros and the cons of an election for the New Democrats as Jagmeet Singh mulls whether or not to support the Liberal budget. We also chat about an upset PC victory in a Newfoundland and Labrador byelection as well as another poll showing the B.C. Conservatives on the move. We answer listener questions, including whether there is a Joe Manchin-style riding in the House of Co...

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether or not the gap is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals. We also delve into the question of whether Chinese interference in the 2021 election cost Erin O'Toole seats and his job. Plus, two byelections have been called in Ontario. What to make of the races in Milton and Lambton–Kent–Middlesex? In our mailbag, w...

This week, Philippe and Éric chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling out of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan...

If the proof of the pudding is in the eating, is the proof of the polls in Durham? We break down the results of this week's federal byelection as well as some new national polls. We then answer listener questions about the NDP's performance, the possibility of having an interim PM forced onto the hustings, and whether the Conservatives have the biggest tent. Then, Philippe tests Éric's knowledge o...

A new poll shows the NDP within spitting distance (yes, Philippe, that's a real thing) of the Liberals in the race for second place. What to make of it — and some recent controversies that are dogging the Liberals? We also discuss new poll numbers showing the Ontario Liberals well ahead of the NDP for runner-up status behind Doug Ford, as well as a survey on the race to become the leader of the op...

We discuss the latest threats from the New Democrats to rip up their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals and just how likely it is that this could lead to the fall of the government. We also chat about new polls on how Canadians view support for Ukraine and where the parties stand in Quebec as chatter increases on the possibility of a third referendum on sovereignty. Plus, we discuss...

Are cracks starting to show in the Liberal caucus — and can more of them be prevented if the polling numbers don't improve? We also discuss views on health care, new numbers out of Alberta and dive into the listener mailbag. What happens if Donald Trump is unable to be the nominee? And what about the Conservatives' new star recruit in British Columbia? Get early access to episodes and exclusive ac...

After polls suggested the gap was narrowing a little between the Liberals and the Conservatives, a new survey puts the Conservatives back into landslide territory. We also discuss new polling on Canadians' views on the U.S. election, some upcoming byelections in Atlantic Canada and answer listener questions. Finally, Philippe gets his revenge on Éric for last week's Quiz. To join the Discord page...

On this special episode of The Numbers, we port over a favourite from The Writ Podcast to mark the third edition of what is now our annual holiday tradition: the Over/Under Contest! Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last year's guesses. This being the last episode of the y...

The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew? We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions. To join the Discord page for The Numbers...

This week, we chat about the latest polls that show the Liberals flirting with the NDP for third place. We also chat Liberal leadership polling and a little Ontario politics, plus we discuss the naming of the new female co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire and sit down for a brief chat with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, male co-spokesperson of the party. We've got listener questions and, of course, The Qu...

We discuss the latest polls that show the Liberals in deep trouble and how the carbon tax has become a vote loser for Justin Trudeau's government. We also chat about the OLP leadership race, new recruits for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and answer listener questions. Plus, Philippe comes up with his toughest quiz yet. To join our Patreon and get access to our members-only episodes and early ac...

We discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts Éric on the spot. Join our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod to get early access to episodes every week on Thursday and exclusive access to our m...

A preview of this week's episode, where we chat about the Conservatives' big lead in the polls, some new numbers regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict and a tightening gap on the Saskatchewan provincial scene. We answer some listener questions, including whether Trudeau could do worse than Ignatieff or Poilievre could do better than Mulroney, and Philippe is put to the test with a quiz! To get acces...

This week, we chat about some new polling numbers on Justin Trudeau's leadership and we dissect the NDP's prospects coming out of the convention, where Jagmeet Singh scored 81% on his leadership review. We also discuss just how much Teflon is coating Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs, and answer listener questions — including whether any party could win a landslide the size of John Diefenbaker's or Br...

As we mentioned last week, every second episode of The Numbers will now be only for members of our Patreon. This week, we're chatting about the latest federal polls as well as new numbers in B.C., Alberta and Quebec, and we discuss the NDP's upcoming convention in Hamilton. Plus, Philippe has another quiz! We'll have a regular episode of The Numbers in your feed next week, but if you don't want to...

We break down the results of the Manitoba provincial election and the Quebec byelection in Jean-Talon, as well as some new polling numbers out of Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. We also answer listener questions (can the Conservatives ever win in Montreal?) and present our numbers of the week. Don't miss next week's episode! Become a member at https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod Hosted on...

Philippe and Éric discuss some federal polling that would produce very different electoral outcomes. They then draft their ridings to watch in Manitoba's election, play a game of over/under ahead of the Jean-Talon byelection and answer listener questions. Join our Patreon for early access to episodes and, starting soon, Patron-only episodes: thenumberspod.ca Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy...