The Numbers

The political stakes are high in the six federal byelections scheduled for December 7. Mark Carney’s majority will survive intact regardless of the outcome, but his Liberal Party is looking to make gains at the expense of the Conservatives, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois, putting the other three leaders on the defensive — especially Pierre Poilievre, as his party’s polling and fundraising number...

David Eby’s B.C. New Democrats went down to defeat on Saturday, as Lorne Doerkson and the B.C. Conservatives took advantage of Eby’s early call to win in a (by B.C. standards) landslide. The polls were predicting this would be the result. But were there any surprises — or lessons to be learned? This week on The Numbers , we break down the results of British Columbia’s provincial election. We also...

As the polls had predicted, the Remain side won the Alberta referendum in a landslide, as Albertans opted for the status quo in their province. But in next-door British Columbia, voters might be about to back a change of a different kind. This week on The Numbers , we break down the results of Alberta’s referendum and how the polls performed. We also take a look at where some of the last polls of...

Little more than a week remains in the B.C. election campaign that the NDP’s David Eby set in motion, two years ahead of schedule. The leaders debate took place last night and things could still change. But the polls are not looking good for the New Democrats. Are they about to lose this election and give Lorne Doerkson and his B.C. Conservatives an unexpected victory? This week on The Numbers , w...

It’s not very often we see a party go from a landslide victory in one election to a complete wipeout in the next. But that’s what happened on Monday when the Coalition Avenir Québec was reduced to zero seats after winning 90 in the last Quebec provincial election. But the CAQ’s wipeout did not deliver the Parti Québécois a majority government. What happened? This week on The Numbers , we break dow...

Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to be walking on water in the polls, as new numbers put the Liberals and their leader at highs not seen before in recent history. Meanwhile, support for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives drops to new lows as an upcoming resignation means the party will face another tough byelection in the coming months. This week on The Numbers, we discuss the federal pollin...

B.C. Premier David Eby has staked his government on an early election, pitching to voters that U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty forces him to request a new mandate from voters. But could the snap election call backfire if those voters instead decide that it was a cynical attempt to take advantage of the disarray within the B.C. Conservative Party? This week...

An investor’s summit, a trip to the European Union that could begin potentially closer ties in the future and, of course, there’s Donald Trump. There’s plenty going on in federal politics right now. But there’s also a lot of upheaval happening in Western Canada. Just what is going on? This week on The Numbers , we discuss some new developments in Alberta and British Columbia. The Alberta NDP won a...

A few weeks ago we asked a question — will Mark Carney get another Trump bump? Well, we have the answer. And the answer is yes. Recent polls show that support for Mark Carney personally and for the Liberals more broadly has increased over the last few weeks as Canadians get behind the prime minister’s decision to cease trade negotiations with the United States. Polls also show that Canadians suppo...

Mark Carney’s Liberals scored three big wins in Monday’s byelections, taking a seat from the Conservatives and dealing the party another blow. What do the results say about support for the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc, and what do they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s leadership? This week on The Numbers , we break down what happened on Monday night. We also take a look at the latest federal polling...

It’s been a tumultuous week on the U.S. trade relations file, as negotiations fell apart, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs were threatened and applied and insults flew back and forth across the U.S.-Canada border, notably between President Donald Trump and Ontario Premier Doug Ford. But how are Canadians reacting — and going to react — to Mark Carney’s handling of the issue, as well as these renewe...

The polls over the last few weeks have not been kind to the Conservatives, as multiple surveys have put the party under the psychologically important threshold of 30%. What does this mean for Pierre Poilievre, and could some upcoming byelections be points of no return for his leadership? This week on The Numbers , we break down the plethora of recent polls that have been published and what they sa...

New polls published over the last week agree that the Liberals are ahead — but are they ahead by a little, or by a lot? This week on The Numbers , we try to make some sense of differing poll numbers that aren’t all good news for Mark Carney (though they are mostly bad news for Pierre Poilievre). We also discuss the calling of three byelections in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Va...

An otherwise relatively quiet political summer has been rocked again by U.S. President Donald Trump, as he is set to impose a new round of tariffs on Canada. How might another tussle with the United States impact the polling numbers, which seemed to suggest the Liberals undergoing a modest softening in their support? This week on The Numbers , we discuss the potential impact of another tariff figh...

We’ll admit it when we might have been wrong — and the results of Monday’s byelection in Prince Edward Island suggest we might have been a bit too skeptical of a Narrative Research poll that put the PEI Greens in the lead. So, we start with some mea culpas , and a discussion of whether the Cornwall—Meadowbank could be the proverbial flap of the butterfly wings that has bigger repercussions further...

Don’t you know who I am? For many Canadians, the answer is “no” when it comes to some of our political leaders. A new poll from Pollara suggests that very few Canadians can name the leader of the NDP (Avi Lewis) or any cabinet ministers, while Pierre Poilievre’s recognition hasn’t shifted much over the last three years. Plus, many people still struggle to spell his name correctly. This week on The...

With the start of another summer, it’s time to think about new beginnings — for political parties! This week, we’re doing something we haven’t done before. Every December, we draft the party leaders we think will be heading into the sunset. Now, in this first post-Canada Day episode, we’re drafting leaders who we say will be newly installed at the helm of their parties. The rules are simple: we dr...

With the summer now getting started, a series of new polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals are starting the season in a good spot, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives can’t seem to get any momentum going. Will the summer months provide a respite to the two parties, or could it prove to be a cruel summer in the polls for either of them? This week on The Numbers , we dissect the new federal p...

The summer political season is just about to begin as MPs prepare to return to their ridings, so it’s time to take stock of where things stand in the polls. Are we seeing a new level of stability at a new level of support for Mark Carney’s Liberals? This week on The Numbers , we dissect new federal, Quebec and B.C. poll numbers. And, after last week’s debacle, Philippe comes back with another chal...

More polls are showing some softening support for Mark Carney and the Liberals, while the NDP moves into double-digits. But the trend line isn’t conclusive — except when it comes to the Conservatives, who have shown little life in the polls with one new survey putting the party at a level not seen since before Pierre Poilievre became party leader. This week on The Numbers , we take a look at the n...

In one corner, we have a Liberal slump and an NDP surge. In the other corner, we have Liberal dominance and a listless NDP. In both corners, the Conservatives are stuck. But what’s really going on? This week on The Numbers , we try to make some sense of the latest polls that don’t seem to agree on what’s going on with either Mark Carney’s Liberals or Avi Lewis’s New Democrats. We also break down t...

Premier Danielle Smith has added a question on Alberta separation to the October 19 referendum ballot, a move that will have repercussions for the country and the province. But is it primarily a debate being held amongst the supporters of her own party? This week on The Numbers , we discuss what the polls suggest could be the motivations behind Smith’s referendum push, as well as what it could mea...

Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to hold their lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Avi Lewis and the New Democrats have yet to breakthrough. As the summer slowly approaches, we look ahead into our crystal balls at where the polls might stand later in the year with a game of Buy or Sell — are any of the parties and their leaders over-priced in the polls compared to where t...

This week’s court ruling on the Alberta separation petition has only raised more questions about whether the province will be holding a referendum on independence this fall. Whatever next steps Premier Danielle Smith takes will come with a great degree of risk — for her party, for the province and for Canada. This week on The Numbers , we discuss some new polling numbers out of Alberta and what th...

Mark Carney’s Liberals are still holding a lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, thanks in large part to their increased support among older Canadians. But are the Liberals also out-polling the Conservatives among younger voters? And, if so, what does that mean for the New Democrats and their new leader, Avi Lewis? This week on The Numbers , we take a dive into some of the...