The Numbers

Don’t you know who I am? For many Canadians, the answer is “no” when it comes to some of our political leaders. A new poll from Pollara suggests that very few Canadians can name the leader of the NDP (Avi Lewis) or any cabinet ministers, while Pierre Poilievre’s recognition hasn’t shifted much over the last three years. Plus, many people still struggle to spell his name correctly. This week on The...

With the start of another summer, it’s time to think about new beginnings — for political parties! This week, we’re doing something we haven’t done before. Every December, we draft the party leaders we think will be heading into the sunset. Now, in this first post-Canada Day episode, we’re drafting leaders who we say will be newly installed at the helm of their parties. The rules are simple: we dr...

With the summer now getting started, a series of new polls suggest that Mark Carney’s Liberals are starting the season in a good spot, while Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives can’t seem to get any momentum going. Will the summer months provide a respite to the two parties, or could it prove to be a cruel summer in the polls for either of them? This week on The Numbers , we dissect the new federal p...

The summer political season is just about to begin as MPs prepare to return to their ridings, so it’s time to take stock of where things stand in the polls. Are we seeing a new level of stability at a new level of support for Mark Carney’s Liberals? This week on The Numbers , we dissect new federal, Quebec and B.C. poll numbers. And, after last week’s debacle, Philippe comes back with another chal...

More polls are showing some softening support for Mark Carney and the Liberals, while the NDP moves into double-digits. But the trend line isn’t conclusive — except when it comes to the Conservatives, who have shown little life in the polls with one new survey putting the party at a level not seen since before Pierre Poilievre became party leader. This week on The Numbers , we take a look at the n...

In one corner, we have a Liberal slump and an NDP surge. In the other corner, we have Liberal dominance and a listless NDP. In both corners, the Conservatives are stuck. But what’s really going on? This week on The Numbers , we try to make some sense of the latest polls that don’t seem to agree on what’s going on with either Mark Carney’s Liberals or Avi Lewis’s New Democrats. We also break down t...

Premier Danielle Smith has added a question on Alberta separation to the October 19 referendum ballot, a move that will have repercussions for the country and the province. But is it primarily a debate being held amongst the supporters of her own party? This week on The Numbers , we discuss what the polls suggest could be the motivations behind Smith’s referendum push, as well as what it could mea...

Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to hold their lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Avi Lewis and the New Democrats have yet to breakthrough. As the summer slowly approaches, we look ahead into our crystal balls at where the polls might stand later in the year with a game of Buy or Sell — are any of the parties and their leaders over-priced in the polls compared to where t...

This week’s court ruling on the Alberta separation petition has only raised more questions about whether the province will be holding a referendum on independence this fall. Whatever next steps Premier Danielle Smith takes will come with a great degree of risk — for her party, for the province and for Canada. This week on The Numbers , we discuss some new polling numbers out of Alberta and what th...

Mark Carney’s Liberals are still holding a lead in the polls over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, thanks in large part to their increased support among older Canadians. But are the Liberals also out-polling the Conservatives among younger voters? And, if so, what does that mean for the New Democrats and their new leader, Avi Lewis? This week on The Numbers , we take a dive into some of the...

This past week, we’ve learned that NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice and Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson will be vacating their seats in the coming months. Nate Erskine-Smith is also promising to resign his seat once he makes his bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership (and a provincial nomination) official. These trio of byelections, whenever they are called, will prove to be stiff tests for Mark Carney, P...

With a majority government now in place, Mark Carney isn’t likely to head back to the polls anytime soon. That gives Pierre Poilievre time to catch his breath — and catch up to the Liberals. But is the extra time he now has ahead of him as Conservative leader a positive or a negative? This week on The Numbers , we discuss some new poll numbers that suggest Conservative voters might be souring a li...

With the majority now secured, Mark Carney’s Liberals can look ahead to another 3.5 years in office without going back to the polls. That is, of course, if they don’t want to go back to the polls before then. This week on The Numbers , we discuss the current polling landscape and the fallout from Monday’s byelections and what they could mean for the longevity of this Parliament. We also chat about...

The Liberals swept all three byelections yesterday, winning as expected in University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and prevailing in a close fight with the Bloc Québécois in Terrebonne. The three wins give Mark Carney a majority government, something the Liberals have not had since 2019. Meanwhile, the Conservative vote tanked across the board and the NDP had a small moral victory with a sec...

It was rumoured to be in the offing, but on Wednesday news came of the surprising floor-crossing of Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong MP Marilyn Gladu from the Conservatives to the Liberals, putting Mark Carney’s government even closer to a majority. We started the podcast unaware of the news, but we eventually offer some hot takes on the crossing minutes after it was announced. Still, even with Gladu the...

Three federal byelections that could give Mark Carney a majority government are now less than two weeks away. Pierre Poilievre is trying out some new approaches against the Liberal government as he tries to close the gap and the NDP now has a new permanent leader in Avi Lewis. Meanwhile, a new poll out of Quebec shows the provincial election in October could prove to be a toss-up. Stuff is about t...

Avi Lewis secured the NDP leadership in Winnipeg today, getting 56% of the vote on the first ballot. In this quick-hit episode of The Numbers , we give our initial reactions to the results and chat about where the NDP under Lewis goes from here. Looking for even more of The Numbers ? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episo...

The most predictive indicator of most leadership races is money. And in the NDP leadership race, Avi Lewis has raised the most of it — by far. Does that make him the favourite to win the NDP crown on Sunday? This week on The Numbers , before we both jet off to Winnipeg, we set our expectations for how the vote will unfurl this weekend. We also take a look at what some new poll numbers say about th...

With some polls suggesting the Liberals are nearing 50% support while the Conservatives are slipping toward 30%, one has to wonder: has Mark Carney hit his ceiling and has Pierre Poilievre hit his floor? This week on The Numbers , we discuss the latest federal polling numbers and the unprecedented scores being put up by the Liberals. We also discuss provincial polling from across the country as a...

Mark Carney’s Liberals have a majority in sight after adding Nunavut MP Lori Idlout to their ranks. The former New Democrats has pushed the Liberals to 170 seats in the House of Commons, meaning they are only two short of a majority with three vacancies set to be filled in a trio of byelections on April 13. This week on The Numbers , we discuss Idlout’s floor-crossing, the byelection calendar and...

Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre were overseas this week, as the prime minister made stops in India, Australia and Japan and the opposition leader visited Germany and the United Kingdom. But while the trips were foreign, the politics are always domestic. This week on The Numbers , we take a look at polling numbers that shed some light on what Canadians think about a few hot button foreign pol...

As the polling gap widens between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, a surprising new trend has emerged. In Alberta, three new polls suggest the margin between the two parties has closed significantly. What is behind this shift in the polls, is it the real deal and what could it mean for the next election? We break it all down on this week’s episode of The Numbers . We al...

With the decision of Edmonton Riverbend MP Matt Jeneroux to cross from the Conservatives over to the Liberals — rather than resign as he said he would back in November — Pierre Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party is again under the microscope. And with one additional MP joining the government benches and a series of byelections on the horizon, Mark Carney and the Liberals are within s...

With the polls showing a spike in support for the Liberals, speculation has also spiked about an early election. What do the polls say about whether Mark Carney’s Liberals or Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives should want to head back on the campaign trail in 2026? This week on The Numbers , we break down the state of the federal race and discuss whether or not Carney’s bump is an extension of his h...

Pierre Poilievre received 87.4% support in his leadership review at the Conservative convention in Calgary — a number we said in last week’s episode would be the “most boring” because it would be neither extremely high nor problematically low. But now that Poilievre has passed this test, he has to face his next challenge: closing the widening gap in the polls between his Conservatives and Mark Car...