The Numbers

Following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at Davos last week, the polls appear to have shifted in his favour — and against that of Pierre Poilievre. With the House of Commons now sitting again, the year’s political season just getting started and Poilievre only a few days away from his leadership review in Calgary, what do these numbers mean for where things go from here on the federal politic...

With less than two weeks to go before Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review in Calgary, a new poll shows a spike in his negative ratings to a new high. Is it a one-off blip or a sign of a deeper problem for the Conservative leader? We break down the federal polls on this week’s episode of The Numbers . We also discuss François Legault’s bombshell resignation last week and how it shuffles the deck a...

Chrystia Freeland, the former cabinet minister and Liberal leadership contestant whose resignation letter was the final nail in the coffin of Justin Trudeau’s prime ministership, finally vacated her seat in the House of Commons last week. As Mark Carney tries to find his way to the magic number of 172 seats needed for a majority government, he now has one more to fill. And it likely won’t be the l...

After tackling the year in federal politics to come, we now turn our attentions to the provincial scenes. In this second part of our Over/Under Contest, we set our lines for the Quebec election in October. We also make our predictions for potential other provincial elections, premier resignations, leadership race outcomes and where party leaders might end the year in the polls. Thanks for all of y...

After the beating our predictions took in 2025, we’ve lifted ourselves up, dusted ourselves off and are once again ready to try to predict the political year to come. Yes, it’s time for our annual Over/Under Contest, the fifth year in a row that we go head-to-head to see who has the better crystal ball for 2026. What score will Pierre Poilievre get in his leadership review? When will Mark Carney’s...

One year ago today, Chrystia Freeland resigned from Justin Trudeau’s cabinet and kicked off a series of events that led to the Liberals winning re-election under new leader Mark Carney in April’s federal election. Also one year ago today, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were enjoying a 20+ point lead in the polls. Now, the beleaguered Conservative leader has lost his second MP to the Liberals in...

After months of caucus departures, expulsions and internal party turmoil, John Rustad finally resigned as leader of the B.C. Conservatives last week. Could that shake-up in the Conservative Party have reverberations that’ll go far beyond the provincial political scene in Victoria? This week on The Numbers , we discuss what just happened in British Columbia and whether we might see any federal poli...

Polls suggest that a majority of Canadians (including British Columbians), support building a new pipeline from Alberta to the north coast of B.C. But after the resignation of Steven Guilbeault, a key minister for the Liberals in Quebec, and indications that the party’s electoral base in B.C. and elsewhere has mixed views about a new pipeline, could Mark Carney’s voter coalition be cracking — or c...

Prime Minister Mark Carney is reportedly set to announce a new agreement with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith that could pave the way for a new pipeline to the Pacific coast. The only problem? British Columbia might not be on board. Beyond the implications for the economy and the environment, could choosing between Alberta and B.C. have electoral repercussions for the Liberals? This week on The Num...

It wasn’t entirely clear how the budget was going to get passed, but it did indeed get passed on Monday night thanks to the abstentions of a few Conservative and NDP MPs. So, that means Canadians won’t be called to the polls over the holidays. But the clock on this minority parliament continues to count down. How long can it really last? This week on The Numbers , we discuss what happened with the...

Questions continue to surround the future of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre following the turmoil of budget week. Not only did the Conservatives lose Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont to the Liberals, they also lost Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux, who announced his upcoming resignation. It’s been widely reported that Jeneroux was contemplating a floor-crossing of his own, but instead he has opted...

Mark Carney’s Liberal government tabled what it called its ‘generational’ budget on Tuesday, promising a mix of spending and cuts and booking a big budget deficit. So far, the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois look set to vote it down. The New Democrats are on the fence. But the drama of budget day was punctuated by the defection of Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont from the Conservatives to the Lib...

There’s one week to go before Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government tables the budget. We still don’t know if it will pass a vote in the House of Commons. Failing to do so would mean another election. Should Pierre Poilievre welcome a second campaign in 2025, or should he and his Conservatives prefer to put that contest off to another day? And what about the Bloc Québécois and the New Democrats?...

Nobody within Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative caucus has publicly broken ranks with the leader, but calls for a change at the top of the party were given voice last week by Dimitri Soudas, a top aide to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. Is it a sign that Poilievre’s leadership of the party is more fragile than was previously thought, or are Soudas’s criticisms those of a former Co...

The polls continue to show a narrow, but diminishing, advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals. But the polls also show that Canadians hold some complicated, and at terms contradictory, views when it comes to the United States and the prime minister’s relationship with Donald Trump. It’s a delicate balancing act for Carney — one that could easily go badly for the Liberals if they risked (or were force...

For most of the four years between 2019 and 2023, the Liberals and Conservatives were deadlocked in the polls with each party hovering a little over 30%, give or take a few points. Then the bottom fell out for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. But are we entering into another phase of a deadlocked, polarized electorate — this time with Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives both stuc...

Mark Carney seems to be more popular than his Liberals, while Pierre Poilievre seems to be less popular than his Conservatives. Are these numbers sustainable for either party leader — and what would it mean if these numbers held going into an election campaign? Plus, what to make of the NDP’s better polls as the party’s leadership campaign takes off? This week on The Numbers , we discuss the lates...

It’s been a tough time for party leaders. After Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie resigned following her 57% leadership review score, Marit Stiles of the Ontario NDP managed only a little better with 68%. Over in British Columbia, John Rustad of the Conservatives scored 70%. While Crombie couldn’t hold on, Stiles and Rustad plan to stick around. But what number is good enough to stay on as lea...

The MPs are back in Ottawa and already the big question on Parliament Hill is whether or not the government will survive the budget vote later this fall. Just a few seats short of a majority, Mark Carney’s Liberals still require the support (or abstention) of at least one other party in the House of Commons. Do any of those parties have an incentive to go back to the polls sooner rather than later...

Parliamentarians return to Ottawa next week for what will be the first showdown between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons. It’ll be the official kick-off for the fall political season. Who will come out on top? This week on The Numbers , after delving into the latest poll numbers we play a little game of “buy or sell” — buying the parties a...

The first two serious contenders for the federal NDP leadership have emerged in Heather McPherson and Avi Lewis, according to recent reporting. But the challenge they have ahead of them to rehabilitate the ailing New Democratic Party is enormous. Could the path laid out by Manitoba’s Wab Kinew be the answer? This week on The Numbers , we discuss where the NDP goes from here as its leadership race...

Is Mark Carney’s honeymoon in danger of coming to an end? A new poll from Abacus Data suggests the Liberals might have lost some steam for the first time since the April election. What to make of these new numbers that put the Conservatives marginally ahead? This week on The Numbers , we take a look at this new poll — and a few others that muddy the waters, including some not-so-strong numbers for...

Pierre Poilievre easily won the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection on Monday, thereby securing his return to the House of Commons. His closest challenger, Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley, finished 70 points behind as voters in the riding came out in droves to support the Conservative leader. This week on The Numbers , we dive deep into the results of the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection. We a...

With less than a week to go before the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection, how do we assess Pierre Poilievre’s chances to not only win but to put up a score that is just as big as what his Conservative predecessors did in the riding? Plus, what to make of the news that Jenni Byrne, who ran the Conservative campaign in this year’s election, will not be running the party’s next campaign? This week on...

For the second time in as many elections, Pierre Poilievre will have to contend with an enormous number of opponents. After the Longest Ballot Committee organized to expand the list of names to 91 candidates in Carleton, they’ve now boosted their efforts to push the roster of candidates to over 200 ahead of the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection. Will it be the final straw before changes are made to...