The Numbers

As Donald Trump rachets up the pressure on Mark Carney, a majority of Canadians are still approving of the job the prime minister is doing. And one of the things that might be helping him the most is Canadians’ own lack of trust that the U.S. president is acting in good faith. This week on The Numbers , we discuss some of the latest polling on how Canadians are viewing Carney’s government and thei...

After the New Democrats suffered a stinging rebuke in the last federal election, there are many questions surrounding where the party goes from here — and who could lead it. On this week’s episode of The Numbers , we discuss the troubled state of the NDP and a new poll that suggests few Canadians know much about any of the potential leadership contenders. We also chat about what the polls say abou...

The Alberta New Democrats held their two seats in Edmonton and the United Conservatives won their seat in the rural south of the province. Naheed Nenshi now has a seat in the legislature and Danielle Smith has kept the separatists at bay. But there are some conflicting signals in the results. Are there reasons for Smith to be concerned over these numbers? And what could they mean for Pierre Poilie...

The post-election polling hasn’t been kind to Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives. Is it just a blip or something the Conservatives should start worrying about? This week on The Numbers , we take a look at what the federal polls say about Poilievre’s future. We also get a report from Philippe’s trip to Quebec City for the Quebec Liberal leadership that was won by Pablo Rodriguez and we look at...

Mark Carney has been prime minister for three months and his honeymoon appears to be holding as new polls show his own personal numbers continue to sparkle — even if the Liberals aren’t much further ahead in voting intentions than they were in April’s election. How long can these good vibes last? We break down the latest federal polls on this week’s episode of The Numbers . Plus, we have some new...

A new poll suggests that not only is Ontario’s Doug Ford the most well-known provincial premier in the country, he is also the most popular in the country as a whole. Does that make Doug Ford Canada’s premiere premier? This week on The Numbers , we dig into some polling by Pollara on how Canadians view their premier and the premiers of other provinces. We also delve into some numbers from Janet Br...

King Charles III kicked off a new parliamentary session on Tuesday by reading the government’s speech from the throne, the first time the monarch has done so since 1977. Does this herald a newfound enthusiasm for the Crown in Canada, or would Canadians prefer to chuck Charles and become a republic? On this episode of The Numbers , we break down a series of polls that gauge Canadians’ opinions of t...

Prime Minister Mark Carney named his new cabinet last week. Do his choices suggest some electoral considerations came into play on who did and didn’t made the cut — and does a cabinet minister make a difference at the ballot box? Plus, Pierre Poilievre’s byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot looms, as does the prickly subject of Alberta separation. This week on The Numbers , we discuss some of these...

With referendums on separation a real possibility in the not-so-distant future, is there a chance that Alberta and/or Saskatchewan could vote to leave the country? We take a look at some of the latest polling numbers on the subject on this episode of The Numbers . Plus, both the Conservatives and New Democrats have named some interim leaders (Andrew Scheer as head of the opposition until Pierre Po...

Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a big minority government in last week’s election, but not the majority they were hoping for. Is 169 seats, three short of the majority threshold, as good as a majority in the current context? On this episode of The Numbers , we debate how long it will be before we’re heading to the polls once again. We also discuss some post-election polling that hints at how differ...

It was a remarkable end to an unprecedented few months in Canadian politics. Mark Carney’s Liberals came up just short of a majority with 169 seats, while the Conservatives won 144 seats but did not see their leader, Pierre Poilievre, win his. The New Democrats put up their worst performance in all of their history and saw leader Jagmeet Singh go down to defeat as well. But with seven seats, the N...

Mark Carney’s Liberals still hold a lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in our projections with only days to go before this campaign is all over. Will anything change between now and Monday? On this episode of The Numbers , we go over our projections and discuss whether or not the polls are really tightening. We then take a look at where each party stands and assess what would be a good or...

We’re in the final week of this federal election campaign and the polls are still showing that Mark Carney’s Liberals remain the heavy favourites against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But if the Liberals are in majority territory today, just how much of a cushion do they really have? This week on The Numbers , we delve into the national polling numbers and our (somewhat differing) projections....

The polls suggest the race could be getting closer between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But the Liberals are still way ahead in Quebec. Did last night’s French-language leaders’ debate change that? On this episode of The Numbers , we discuss what happened during the debate and whether it’ll have any impact on the polls. We also chat about what appears to be a tighte...

After a period of broad consensus, there’s been a few divergences in the polls. Are we seeing real movement between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, or just some normal fluctuations between random surveys? We try to make sense of some of the numbers. Plus, we discuss our projections (is Saskatchewan really in play?) and chat about how Carney and Poilievre did on the muc...

At Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative rally in Brampton on Wednesday, some supporters wore sweaters and held banners asking a simple question: “do you believe the polls?” Yes. Yes, we do. On this episode of The Numbers , we break down what the polls are showing and explain why every indicator suggests not only that Mark Carney’s Liberals are leading, but that they are in a very good position to win a...

Do we have a polling controversy on our hands? Maybe! Over the last few days, we’ve seen a few polls published that portray some starkly different public opinion environments. Are Mark Carney’s Liberals leading by double-digits, or are Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives keeping them to a close race? Or is it somewhere in between? On this episode of The Numbers , we try to make some sense of the dive...

While the consensus in the polls pretty clearly points to an advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, what should we make of those individual surveys that show the race to be far closer — perhaps even tied? And how should we interpret the polls that show the Liberals surging in regions they haven’t won in decades? In this episode of The Numbers , we try to make s...

It’s clear enough that Mark Carney’s Liberals would be the favourites to win this election if it were held today. But as support for the party in parts of the country grows to levels not seen in decades, just where those Liberal seat gains will happen is tough to predict. On this episode of The Numbers , we discuss how the electoral map is shifting. We also chat about whether or not Jagmeet Singh’...

Early campaign polls show that the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh are in freefall, propelling Mark Carney’s Liberals to new highs in support. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are holding steady, but that just means they are losing ground as the Liberals keep moving ahead. On this episode of The Numbers , Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss what the latest polling numbers say about how this campa...

The writ has dropped and the campaign buses are rolling. It also means the pollsters are polling — and, as hard as their numbers are to believe after what has been an extraordinary few months, you better believe them. The Liberal edge is real. But can it be sustained for the next five weeks? On this episode of The Numbers , we discuss whether or not Mark Carney’s Liberals have hit their ceiling an...

A flurry of polls conducted just ahead of Sunday’s expected writ drop show the Liberals in the lead — and potentially in majority territory. Have the Liberals really gone from catastrophic to the favourites in a matter of weeks? On this episode of The Numbers , we break down the polls showing Mark Carney’s Liberals to be ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and try to make sense of what is ha...

Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership race in emphatic fashion on Sunday and an election call seems only days away. This week on The Numbers , we dissect the results of the Liberal leadership contest and what the latest polls are saying about Carney’s chances against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Plus, we take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec and British Columbia. Wan...

A series of polls published last week put the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. This week, the numbers are putting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives back in front by a sizeable margin. Has the Liberal surge already ended? This week on The Numbers , we dissect the latest federal polling numbers. We also do a round of over/unders on Sunday’s Liberal leadership race where Mark Carney is heavil...

Doug Ford gambled when he called an early election, but it paid off in spades last night as his Progressive Conservatives won their third consecutive majority government. It wasn’t necessarily the bigger mandate he wanted, but a win’s a win. And that was a win. The surprise of the night, though, was the performance of Marit Stiles’s NDP. The party’s vote went down significantly, as the polls predi...