The Numbers

It’s been a whirlwind few weeks in the polls as the Liberals have closed the gap on the Conservatives. At first, the Liberals were merely on track for a smaller defeat than before. But now the polls are pointing to the possibility that the prime minister after the next election might not be Pierre Poilievre. It could be Mark Carney. This week on The Numbers , we delve into the wild federal polls t...

As the Liberals close the gap on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats are in danger of being completely eclipsed. Polls even suggest that if Mark Carney becomes the new Liberal leader, the NDP could be pushed into single digits. And in Ontario, Marit Stiles’s NDP could lose half of its seats (or more) as the fight for second place appears to be Bonnie Crombie’s and the O...

The Liberals have made significant gains in a number of recent polls, closing the gap with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, in some case, to single-digits. And when Mark Carney is substituted-in for Justin Trudeau, that gap disappears entirely. Have we entered an entirely new federal race? On this week’s episode of The Numbers we also discuss some of the latest polling numbers out of the dynamic...

The trend is getting irrefutable — the Liberals have reversed their slide since Justin Trudeau’s resignation. But just how competitive is the race really getting, and how much of it is based on the idea of Mark Carney rather than the reality? On this week’s episode of The Numbers , we discuss some of the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean. We also discuss the fourth quarter fundrais...

One thing seems clear these days: the polls aren’t very clear these days. While there appears to be some indication of a Liberal uptick since Justin Trudeau’s resignation, there are big disagreements about just how big that uptick is. Not only is there a discrepancy in the federal polls, there are diverging polls in Ontario’s election campaign, too. Could the two be related — and just what can we...

Citing the need for a new, stronger mandate to take on Donald Trump’s tariffs, Doug Ford looks poised to call an Ontario election more than a year ahead of schedule. It’s a campaign that would play out while Justin Trudeau is still prime minister and Pierre Poilievre isn’t. Is this a smart political gambit for Ford’s PCs, or could it blow up in the premier’s face? This week on The Numbers , we dis...

This week on The Numbers , we take a look at the winnowing field of Liberal leadership contestants. We also discuss some new polling numbers that suggest the Conservatives have grown their support since Justin Trudeau announced he was resigning as prime minister. Plus, is Doug Ford preparing to send Ontarians to the polls? You can also watch this episode on YouTube . Want even more of The Numbers...

This week on The Numbers , we discuss the impact of Justin Trudeau’s resignation as prime minister and Liberal leader, as well as the early moves in the contest to replace him. What do the polls say about the chances his successor will have against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives? And who will that successor be? We hold an auction to choose our picks for the most likely winners of the Liber...

It’s that time of year again! Time for us to match wits as we try to predict the political year to come. How many seats will the Conservatives win in the next federal election? Will the Liberals’ vote share be above or below the historic low set in 2011? How many leaders will resign on election night? And who made the best predictions for 2024? In addition to taking out the crystal ball for the fe...

It’s hard to find the right adjectives to describe what happened with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government this week following the resignation of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. But we try our best to make sense of what just happened and what could happen next. We also talk about some of the first post-resignation polling numbers that have been published since it all went down. Pl...

This week on The Numbers , we break down the latest federal polling that continues to look rough for Justin Trudeau. Next week’s byelection in the B.C. riding of Cloverdale–Langley City also looks rough for the Liberals, as the Conservatives appear likely to flip the seat that has gone back and forth between the two parties since 2015. We also take a look at the latest premier approval ratings, ho...

Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau’s promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances? We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford a...

A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it? On this week’s episode of The Numbers , we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island. Want ev...

A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau? On this episode of The Numbers , we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova...

The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row? We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s...

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it. We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the...

The Sask. Party held on in Saskatchewan in what turned out to be a close election, but the polls nevertheless missed the mark by a wide margin. We break down the results. We also take a look at the final count in British Columbia and the snap election call in Nova Scotia, where Tim Houston is hoping to avoid an incumbent slump. Then, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether the Liberals hav...

This week on The Numbers , we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do? We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a...

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day. We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questi...

This week on The Numbers , we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault. In the mailbag,...

This week on The Numbers , we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to pro...

This week on The Numbers , we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign. In the mailbag, we answer a listene...

It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise. We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers. To join the Discord page for The Numbers , get early ac...

What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan. In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweeps...

A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive. (Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after w...