The Numbers

It was a remarkable end to an unprecedented few months in Canadian politics. Mark Carney’s Liberals came up just short of a majority with 169 seats, while the Conservatives won 144 seats but did not see their leader, Pierre Poilievre, win his. The New Democrats put up their worst performance in all of their history and saw leader Jagmeet Singh go down to defeat as well. But with seven seats, the N...

Mark Carney’s Liberals still hold a lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in our projections with only days to go before this campaign is all over. Will anything change between now and Monday? On this episode of The Numbers , we go over our projections and discuss whether or not the polls are really tightening. We then take a look at where each party stands and assess what would be a good or...

We’re in the final week of this federal election campaign and the polls are still showing that Mark Carney’s Liberals remain the heavy favourites against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But if the Liberals are in majority territory today, just how much of a cushion do they really have? This week on The Numbers , we delve into the national polling numbers and our (somewhat differing) projections....

The polls suggest the race could be getting closer between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But the Liberals are still way ahead in Quebec. Did last night’s French-language leaders’ debate change that? On this episode of The Numbers , we discuss what happened during the debate and whether it’ll have any impact on the polls. We also chat about what appears to be a tighte...

After a period of broad consensus, there’s been a few divergences in the polls. Are we seeing real movement between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, or just some normal fluctuations between random surveys? We try to make sense of some of the numbers. Plus, we discuss our projections (is Saskatchewan really in play?) and chat about how Carney and Poilievre did on the muc...

At Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative rally in Brampton on Wednesday, some supporters wore sweaters and held banners asking a simple question: “do you believe the polls?” Yes. Yes, we do. On this episode of The Numbers , we break down what the polls are showing and explain why every indicator suggests not only that Mark Carney’s Liberals are leading, but that they are in a very good position to win a...

Do we have a polling controversy on our hands? Maybe! Over the last few days, we’ve seen a few polls published that portray some starkly different public opinion environments. Are Mark Carney’s Liberals leading by double-digits, or are Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives keeping them to a close race? Or is it somewhere in between? On this episode of The Numbers , we try to make some sense of the dive...

While the consensus in the polls pretty clearly points to an advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, what should we make of those individual surveys that show the race to be far closer — perhaps even tied? And how should we interpret the polls that show the Liberals surging in regions they haven’t won in decades? In this episode of The Numbers , we try to make s...

It’s clear enough that Mark Carney’s Liberals would be the favourites to win this election if it were held today. But as support for the party in parts of the country grows to levels not seen in decades, just where those Liberal seat gains will happen is tough to predict. On this episode of The Numbers , we discuss how the electoral map is shifting. We also chat about whether or not Jagmeet Singh’...

Early campaign polls show that the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh are in freefall, propelling Mark Carney’s Liberals to new highs in support. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are holding steady, but that just means they are losing ground as the Liberals keep moving ahead. On this episode of The Numbers , Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss what the latest polling numbers say about how this campa...

The writ has dropped and the campaign buses are rolling. It also means the pollsters are polling — and, as hard as their numbers are to believe after what has been an extraordinary few months, you better believe them. The Liberal edge is real. But can it be sustained for the next five weeks? On this episode of The Numbers , we discuss whether or not Mark Carney’s Liberals have hit their ceiling an...

A flurry of polls conducted just ahead of Sunday’s expected writ drop show the Liberals in the lead — and potentially in majority territory. Have the Liberals really gone from catastrophic to the favourites in a matter of weeks? On this episode of The Numbers , we break down the polls showing Mark Carney’s Liberals to be ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and try to make sense of what is ha...

Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership race in emphatic fashion on Sunday and an election call seems only days away. This week on The Numbers , we dissect the results of the Liberal leadership contest and what the latest polls are saying about Carney’s chances against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Plus, we take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec and British Columbia. Wan...

A series of polls published last week put the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. This week, the numbers are putting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives back in front by a sizeable margin. Has the Liberal surge already ended? This week on The Numbers , we dissect the latest federal polling numbers. We also do a round of over/unders on Sunday’s Liberal leadership race where Mark Carney is heavil...

Doug Ford gambled when he called an early election, but it paid off in spades last night as his Progressive Conservatives won their third consecutive majority government. It wasn’t necessarily the bigger mandate he wanted, but a win’s a win. And that was a win. The surprise of the night, though, was the performance of Marit Stiles’s NDP. The party’s vote went down significantly, as the polls predi...

It’s been a whirlwind few weeks in the polls as the Liberals have closed the gap on the Conservatives. At first, the Liberals were merely on track for a smaller defeat than before. But now the polls are pointing to the possibility that the prime minister after the next election might not be Pierre Poilievre. It could be Mark Carney. This week on The Numbers , we delve into the wild federal polls t...

As the Liberals close the gap on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats are in danger of being completely eclipsed. Polls even suggest that if Mark Carney becomes the new Liberal leader, the NDP could be pushed into single digits. And in Ontario, Marit Stiles’s NDP could lose half of its seats (or more) as the fight for second place appears to be Bonnie Crombie’s and the O...

The Liberals have made significant gains in a number of recent polls, closing the gap with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, in some case, to single-digits. And when Mark Carney is substituted-in for Justin Trudeau, that gap disappears entirely. Have we entered an entirely new federal race? On this week’s episode of The Numbers we also discuss some of the latest polling numbers out of the dynamic...

The trend is getting irrefutable — the Liberals have reversed their slide since Justin Trudeau’s resignation. But just how competitive is the race really getting, and how much of it is based on the idea of Mark Carney rather than the reality? On this week’s episode of The Numbers , we discuss some of the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean. We also discuss the fourth quarter fundrais...

One thing seems clear these days: the polls aren’t very clear these days. While there appears to be some indication of a Liberal uptick since Justin Trudeau’s resignation, there are big disagreements about just how big that uptick is. Not only is there a discrepancy in the federal polls, there are diverging polls in Ontario’s election campaign, too. Could the two be related — and just what can we...

Citing the need for a new, stronger mandate to take on Donald Trump’s tariffs, Doug Ford looks poised to call an Ontario election more than a year ahead of schedule. It’s a campaign that would play out while Justin Trudeau is still prime minister and Pierre Poilievre isn’t. Is this a smart political gambit for Ford’s PCs, or could it blow up in the premier’s face? This week on The Numbers , we dis...

This week on The Numbers , we take a look at the winnowing field of Liberal leadership contestants. We also discuss some new polling numbers that suggest the Conservatives have grown their support since Justin Trudeau announced he was resigning as prime minister. Plus, is Doug Ford preparing to send Ontarians to the polls? You can also watch this episode on YouTube . Want even more of The Numbers...

This week on The Numbers , we discuss the impact of Justin Trudeau’s resignation as prime minister and Liberal leader, as well as the early moves in the contest to replace him. What do the polls say about the chances his successor will have against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives? And who will that successor be? We hold an auction to choose our picks for the most likely winners of the Liber...

It’s that time of year again! Time for us to match wits as we try to predict the political year to come. How many seats will the Conservatives win in the next federal election? Will the Liberals’ vote share be above or below the historic low set in 2011? How many leaders will resign on election night? And who made the best predictions for 2024? In addition to taking out the crystal ball for the fe...

It’s hard to find the right adjectives to describe what happened with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government this week following the resignation of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. But we try our best to make sense of what just happened and what could happen next. We also talk about some of the first post-resignation polling numbers that have been published since it all went down. Pl...