Many Happy Returns

To succeed at investing, you need to get the big decisions right. But the details matter too. We explore ten under-appreciated aspects of stock markets that, while seemingly trivial, can greatly affect your returns. We look at everything from index construction to valuation measures to platform fees. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do global index funds use market-cap weighting rathe...

Since starting PensionCraft, I’ve spoken to more than a thousand people about their finances, helping with their investing goals, strategies, and fears. We discuss common challenges investors face and how they chart the right course. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why is it so hard to talk about money? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join...

After a century of rapid population growth, the world is getting older. But with fewer workers to subsidise healthcare and pensions, some speculate that shifting demographics spell trouble for the economy and our investments. We debate whether the golden age of stock markets can survive the great Demographic Drag? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How did old people survive before pensions...

Despite all the predictions of doom, the American economy has achieved a macro miracle. Inflation has been tamed without the insidious side-effects of higher unemployment or a recession. But how has the Fed pulled off a soft landing, and can we hope for the same in the UK? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do economists always get it wrong? Selected links How did the US achieve a soft...

12 tricky questions to test anyone's knowledge about money, markets and investing in 2023. Can you triumph in our Christmas pub quiz?! And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the Santa Rally and is it real? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube --- Disclaimer This po...

We celebrate the life of Charlie Munger and look to learn from his wisdom. Warren Buffett's long-time right-hand man helped build Berkshire Hathaway and was a brilliant investor in his own right. But perhaps he will be best remembered for his willingness to share his wisdom, wit and one-liners. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the “Lollapalooza Effect”? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pen...

Markets are full of numbers. Big ones. Small ones. Nonsensical ones. But what is the most influential number in investing? Is it the oil price? Or the interest rate set by the Fed? Or perhaps the strength of the dollar? We debate seven different rates and prices in attempt to crown The World’s Most Important Number. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Why does the Fed set its policy rate as a ta...

The Fear of Missing Out tempts us all. Amid fast-moving markets and 24-hour news, FOMO can be an investor's worst enemy, derailing decision-making and undermining long-term goals. We discuss the strategies that help us stick to the plan. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: When is the right time to sell an investment? Thanks to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. Sign up at lightyear.app....

What do you get if you combine the world’s most important financial market, hedge funds, enormous leverage, and doom loop dynamics? Welcome to the Treasury ‘basis trade'. We discuss the risks that lurk behind the Treasury market and why regulators are sounding the alarm. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the difference between duration and maturity? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensionc...

Over decades, index funds have delivered superior returns and surged in popularity. But some claim the rise of passive investing has come at the cost of less competitive markets and inflated prices for consumers. We look at the evidence that common stock ownership might harm economic efficiency. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How high would bond yields have to go for you to sell your st...

The “Magnificent Seven” stocks have reigned supreme this year, accounting for almost all of the S&P 500’s returns. But what if these titans of tech begin to stumble? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How long do companies last? Thanks to IG for sponsoring this episode. Find out more about IG Smart Portfolios via https://upl.inc/h46sgc IG is also offering new IG Smart Portfolio accounts...

Ever feel like investing in something unusual? From unlisted shares to commercial property to infrastructure, Investment Trusts could be your answer. Performance has waned of late, and many are available at chunky discounts. Is now the time to buy in? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a “Long Term Asset Fund”? Thanks to IG for sponsoring this episode. Find out more about IG Smart P...

Regulatory changes and rising interest rates have squeezed rental yields, leaving investors to wonder: Is the buy-to-let dream over? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does real estate outperform the stock market over the long-term? Thanks to IG for sponsoring this episode. Find out more about IG Smart Portfolios via https://upl.inc/h46sgc Selected links Monthly Lettings Index (Hamptons) Mo...

Government bonds are considered the world's safest asset, setting the "risk-free rate" against which all other investments are judged. But with rising national debts and dwindling credit ratings, are they really above question? We discuss the implications for investors if government bonds are actually at risk of default. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why choose bonds over simply holdin...

Is Vanguard still the king of passive investing? Vanguard pioneered passive index funds, driving down fees and maximising returns for ordinary investors. But with the rise of innovative new brokers in the UK, has Vanguard lost its mojo? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is one fund really enough? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCr...

Smaller companies look much better value than the giants of the S&P 500. Yet despite attractive prices, small cap indices continue to get cheaper, further widening the gap. Is bigger really better? We look at what's holding small caps back and if they are about to gain momentum. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How big can one company grow? Selected links Large Cap vs Small Cap valuat...

Last week, an unexpected cooling of inflation allowed the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged. But with CPI still running more than three times above its target, has the Bank wimped out before the battle is won? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Instead of hiking interest rates to fight inflation, why doesn't the government simply urge people to spend less? Selected links Mon...

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published revised GDP figures, upending the post-pandemic economic narrative. It turns out that Britain’s economy recovered much quicker than previously thought and is no longer an international outlier. So how did the ONS find a load of economic output down the back of the sofa? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What could we measure instead of GDP...

You don’t get to invest with the benefit of hindsight. Mistakes are made, and you have to live with them. But it begs the question: if you could travel back in time, what investing advice would you give your 21-year-old self? Would you champion index funds? Warn about risk? Or maybe suggest just getting started? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Am I rich? Selected links Household total we...

In the early 2000s, the BRICS nations were the pick of emerging markets: vast, rapidly growing economies that promised stellar long-term returns. But it hasn’t played out like that. At least, not yet. Just last week, BRICS expanded its fold with six new members. But does the alliance actually make a difference? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What are frontier markets? --- Get in touch...

During my 15 years in investment banking, I witnessed the brilliance of analysts, the buzz of the trading floor, and the chaos of the financial crisis. Today, we draw back the curtain on the world of high finance. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What are “systemically important banks”? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Be...

For the best part of a century, buying cheap stocks was a reliable way to beat the market. But since the financial crisis, value investing has significantly underperformed. Even Warren Buffett — its most famous advocate — has lagged the market. So is value investing dead? Or is it just sleeping? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is book value? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com...

Stock markets go up because companies grow their earnings over the long term. But this year, the S&P 500 is rallying despite stocks reporting their third straight quarter of falling profits. Has the market just not noticed? We discuss whether an earnings recession should worry us and if it’s about to turn around. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are share buybacks equivalent to divide...

For decades, China has been the engine of global growth, doubling its GDP every eight years. But now it faces weak demand, slowing productivity and an ageing population. We debate if China can beat the “middle-income trap” and what it means for investors. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is China’s currency called the Yuan or the Renminbi? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-...

What if you could invest in the stock market but not risk losing money? Yes, yes, your alarm bells should be ringing! But that's exactly what some new funds claim to offer. We take a hard look at structured products and buffer ETFs and ask if they really make sense for investors. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is Monte Carlo Simulation? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 m...