Many Happy Returns

We confess which core allocations tempt us to jump ship, and try to work out whether we’re responding to a real change in our lives or just a strategy that’s had a good run. --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at pensioncraft.com ▶️ Subscribe on YouTube --- Disclaimer This podcast is for informational and entertainmen...

The cost of insuring against Big Tech defaults has hit record highs, as massive data centre spending eats up free cashflow. Further down the AI food chain, markets are pricing in serious odds that CoreWeave defaults, and treating Oracle more like a junk borrower than a tech giant. Is the credit market spotting cracks the stock market has missed? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this epi...

The Blue Whale Growth Fund has delivered outsized returns since its inception nine years ago. Recently those returns have come from concentrated bets on the picks and shovels behind the AI boom. We talk to Stephen Yiu, Chief Investment Officer, about how he picks stocks, when he decides to sell, and what the recent chip sell-off means for a fund built on AI hardware. --- Thank you to Trading 212 f...

After a decade in the doghouse, small-cap value has had its best run in years, but almost nobody noticed. So is this a real premium that’s finally paying out, or just a good year for cheap stocks? We ask what actually drives returns and how you can buy them. --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 2...

A Swiss government bond pays half a percent a year. A British one pays more than five. Easy choice, you'd think. But yields can cut both ways. A low yield can mean the world trusts you with its money, or that your economy has stagnated. And high yields can be a sign of a strong economy, or that bond investors are getting nervous. So, low yields or high ones, which would you rather live with? --- T...

Many companies make their money from friction — forgotten subscriptions, tricky cancellations, loyalty penalties. Now AI agents promise to do all the tedious admin and save you money. So is this the end of the laziness tax? Are we about to see subscription-based moats collapse? --- Thank you to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. I opened my 2025/2026 ISA with Lightyear. If you want to try them...

Three hikes and a hold in eight days, all in answer to the same energy shock. So why did the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan raise rates, while the Bank of England sat tight, despite facing the worst inflation path of the four? So would you vote to hike? --- Thank you to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. I opened my 2025/2026 ISA with Lightyear. If you want to try them out as well, use PEN...

Markets are meant to be efficient, yet somehow they keep producing meme-stock frenzies, CEO vanity projects, and wild booms and busts. We're joined by Alex Edmans — Professor of Finance at London Business School and author of The Madness of Markets — joins us to discuss why even smart investors lose their heads. --- Thank you to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. I opened my 2025/2026 ISA with...

The Financial Stability Board says frontier AI is the most immediate threat to the financial system — above sovereign debt, private credit and equity valuations. As AI learns to find and exploit vulnerabilities faster than humans can patch them, are our banks about to be hacked? --- Thank you to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. I opened my 2025/2026 ISA with Lightyear. If you want to try the...

Bond ladders are a great way to feel in control of your money. A neat row of gilts maturing year after year, each one handing back its capital right on schedule. But before you buy your first rung, it's worth asking what the ladder is for, what you’re giving up for that certainty, and whether something simpler would do. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Has a developed market ever defaulte...

Humanity has just fallen below replacement fertility for the first time in history. A new paper challenges everything we thought we knew about population decline and economic growth. So what happens to your portfolio when the pie stops growing? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Did the Black Death make Europe rich? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional...

The Japanese and US governments just spent an estimated $80 billion propping up the yen — and within a fortnight, the market had pocketed half of it. We ask whether politicians can ever actually beat currency traders. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Why can't the government just pick whatever exchange rate it likes? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractio...

Corporate America has just delivered its best earnings season in years — record beats, record margins, and growth numbers that look almost too good to be true. Which is convenient, because some of them are. Meanwhile, Europe is also delivering the goods. We discuss what's driving the blowout quarter on both sides of the Atlantic. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do companies report ev...

Your ability to manage money declines steadily after sixty. Yet your confidence in that ability doesn't decline at all, so mistakes get made with total conviction and go unnoticed, especially by you. What you can do now to protect your portfolio before you reach old age? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: How do you raise this with your parents without it becoming a fight? --- Thank you to Trad...

Economists have spent half a century building elegant models of how markets work, and the markets have spent half a century ignoring them. We investigate the great unsolved mysteries of investing. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: If nobody can explain why stocks beat bonds, why are we confident they’ll keep doing it? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Receive a £100 welco...

Andy Burnham once said Britain had to “get beyond being in hock to the bond market”. That’s easier said than done when gilt yields are 5%, debt interest is running above £100bn a year, and the autumn Budget has no headroom left. Can the UK escape fiscal fatalism? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: What's the oldest bond in the world? And is anyone still getting paid? --- Thank you to Raisin UK...

Warren Buffett says “never bet against America”. But plenty of people spent the last eighteen months doing exactly that — betting the dollar would be dethroned and the "Sell America" trade would finally pay off. They're still waiting. We ask whether the United States is still exceptional, or just expensive. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Is the US the best performing stock market ever? ---...

As the World Cup reaches the quarter finals, we name our starting XI of asset classes. From the goalkeeper who does nothing for eighty-nine minutes to the super-sub you should never mistake for a starter. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does the World Cup affect stock prices? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Receive a £100 welcome bonus when you register for a Rais...

Your "Human Capital" might be the largest asset you own, and it behaves like a bond. Seeing your career as a volatile asset might change how you think about saving, investing, and employment. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do I need Income Protection Insurance? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Receive a £100 welcome bonus when you register for a Raisin UK account...

On paper, now looks like a fine time to retire. Annuity rates are generous, gilts finally pay a real return, and even cash earns its keep. But retire into a richly-valued market and a bad first few years can ravage a pot you can't easily rebuild. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Can you un-retire? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth...

The AI boom has all the signs of a bubble. An exciting new technology, stretched valuations, extreme concentration, circular financing, and uncertain cash flows. But how does it all end? Tom Stevenson joins us to game it out: a dot-com-style pop? A slow puncture? Or is this time really different? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠...

The best investors aren't necessarily the cleverest, the best-paid, or the most daring. In fact the evidence suggests they're closer to the opposite. We look at the backgrounds and temperaments that may outperform. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Are cats better stockpickers than fund managers? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to...

The Powell era is over — a pandemic, two wars, and the worst inflation in four decades. We ask whether JPow did a good job, or just survived it. Now Kevin Warsh inherits the chair. But what actually changes? Beneath the handover lie bigger questions: what a central bank is really for, who it answers to, and whether any of it works the way they claim. --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring thi...

The largest IPO in history is three weeks away. SpaceX is aiming for a valuation of almost $2 trillion despite reporting massive losses. We ask what happens when our beloved index funds are forced to buy the AI giants, whatever the price? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Why does an IPO need 23 banks? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join Pension...

With gilt yields at their highest since 1998 — has the bond market finally lost patience with Britain? We ask whether this is really a UK problem, if the Bank of England is pouring petrol on the fire, and whether gilt yields above 5% are a bargain or a trap. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What's the difference between RPI and CPI? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-r...