Many Happy Returns

As the World Cup reaches the quarter finals, we name our starting XI of asset classes. From the goalkeeper who does nothing for eighty-nine minutes to the super-sub you should never mistake for a starter. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does the World Cup affect stock prices? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Receive a £100 welcome bonus when you register for a Rais...

Your "Human Capital" might be the largest asset you own, and it behaves like a bond. Seeing your career as a volatile asset might change how you think about saving, investing, and employment. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do I need Income Protection Insurance? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Receive a £100 welcome bonus when you register for a Raisin UK account...

On paper, now looks like a fine time to retire. Annuity rates are generous, gilts finally pay a real return, and even cash earns its keep. But retire into a richly-valued market and a bad first few years can ravage a pot you can't easily rebuild. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Can you un-retire? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth...

The AI boom has all the signs of a bubble. An exciting new technology, stretched valuations, extreme concentration, circular financing, and uncertain cash flows. But how does it all end? Tom Stevenson joins us to game it out: a dot-com-style pop? A slow puncture? Or is this time really different? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠...

The best investors aren't necessarily the cleverest, the best-paid, or the most daring. In fact the evidence suggests they're closer to the opposite. We look at the backgrounds and temperaments that may outperform. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Are cats better stockpickers than fund managers? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to...

The Powell era is over — a pandemic, two wars, and the worst inflation in four decades. We ask whether JPow did a good job, or just survived it. Now Kevin Warsh inherits the chair. But what actually changes? Beneath the handover lie bigger questions: what a central bank is really for, who it answers to, and whether any of it works the way they claim. --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring thi...

The largest IPO in history is three weeks away. SpaceX is aiming for a valuation of almost $2 trillion despite reporting massive losses. We ask what happens when our beloved index funds are forced to buy the AI giants, whatever the price? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Why does an IPO need 23 banks? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join Pension...

With gilt yields at their highest since 1998 — has the bond market finally lost patience with Britain? We ask whether this is really a UK problem, if the Bank of England is pouring petrol on the fire, and whether gilt yields above 5% are a bargain or a trap. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What's the difference between RPI and CPI? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-r...

For two decades, calling a UK house price crash has been a reliable way to look clever and be wrong. But while nominal prices have barely moved, a slow grind is reshaping affordability, rents and the housebuilding sector. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are short-term fixed-rate mortgages a problem? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares wo...

Stocks have rallied to record highs while the Iran war is merely paused, oil prices are elevated, and inflation remains sticky. But while equity investors cheer the recovery, is the bond market quietly telling a different story? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the crack spread? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠1...

"Do Your Own Research" is one of the most parroted phrases in investing — slapped on every stock tip, TikTok video and crypto tweet. But what does good research actually look like for a retail investor? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do contrarian investors actually make money? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Jus...

The investing world runs on numbers. We look at the statistical tricks that make bad investments look good, mediocre track records look brilliant, and risks disappear entirely. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: What makes a finding 'statistically significant'? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode. Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Tra...

After weeks of market turmoil, asset prices across the board are lower than they were. But is anything actually cheap yet? We grab our valuation toolkit and go bargain hunting across stocks, bonds, and commodities to find out what's on sale. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Does valuation tell you anything? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional...

Your portfolio was probably designed for falling interest rates and cheap oil. That is no longer the world we live in. Equity indices have minimal energy exposure. Bonds amplify losses during a rising rate environment. And even gold is down 20% from its peak. So what you can actually do when the big asset classes are struggling? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: What is the Bloomberg Aggregate...

You've seen the oil price soar. But crude is just the start—the Iran conflict is sending shockwaves through natural gas, fertiliser, helium and a host of other commodities we take for granted. What does it all mean for inflation, interest rates, and how you might want to position your portfolio? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Does the futures curve predict where prices are going in the futu...

What does popular finance content reveal about everyday investors? Damien Jordan from Damien Talks Money joins us to explore the gap between the videos people click on and the information they actually need. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Has making finance content changed how you invest? --- Thank you to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. I opened my 2025/2026 ISA with Lightyear. I...

No one likes to lose money. And some funds are designed to deliver a positive return whether markets go up, down, or sideways. Sounds easy. It isn't. We’re joined by Jasmine Yeo, fund manager at Ruffer, to discuss the art of capital preservation. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: If markets usually go up, why spend so much time thinking about what could go wrong? --- Thank you to Lightyear...

The US Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs in a landmark 6-3 ruling, and Trump responded by immediately imposing new ones under a different law. We look at what the ruling actually means and whether any of this changes the outlook for investors. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the "spaghetti bowl" effect? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim...

Bitcoin has had everything going for it: a crypto-friendly president, ETF approval, congressional legislation, institutional adoption, a strategic reserve executive order. And yet the price has halved from its all-time high. So what’s going on? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What happens when it costs more to mine a bitcoin than it’s actually worth? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for spon...

A trillion dollars was wiped off software stocks after Anthropic released an AI legal tool. Suddenly the market is asking: if AI agents can do the work, why pay for the software? The "SaaSpocalypse" has dragged everything from Microsoft to Salesforce down double digits, leaving Wall Street split on whether this is an existential risk or a massive overreaction. And in today’s Dumb Question of the W...

After an incredible run, gold and silver just suffered their worst day in over forty years. Gold fell 11%. Silver dropped 30%. So what caused the crash? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do we spend billions digging gold out of a hole, just to put it back in a different hole? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100...

After a decade of UK underperformance, Vanguard is going global. The UK’s most popular fund range is dialling back the domestic tilt, and launching a purely market-cap weighted alternative. We look at what's changing, whether you need to do anything, and if home bias is actually a mistake. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why are multi-asset funds limited to stocks and bonds? --- Get in t...

President Trump is threatening tariffs on eight NATO allies to force a deal on Greenland. Europe says it isn’t for sale. So what happens when an immovable object meets an unpredictable force? Tit-for-tat counter-tariffs, an untested “trade bazooka,” or the nuclear option: leveraging $8 trillion in US assets. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Can a Treasury auction fail? --- Get in touch 📧...

The US has captured Venezuela’s president, the White House is openly threatening to invade a NATO ally, and the Fed Chair is under politically-motivated criminal investigation. Apart from that, everything's fine. But should you actually change anything about your portfolio? Or is "carrying on as normal" always the answer? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any asset risk-free? --- Get in...

Where does investing end and gambling begin? From Premium Bonds to meme stocks to deep-out-of-the-money options, today’s markets are full of bets that look a lot like lottery tickets. The line between rational risk-taking and pure chance has never been blurrier. So what really separates a calculated investment from a coin flip? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are boring stocks better? --...