Many Happy Returns

Gilt yields rose after the Autumn budget as markets absorbed sharp rises in investment, taxes and borrowing. Does Liz Truss’s mini-budget still haunt UK debt markets? And is there a risk that investors will shun UK debt? In today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does public investment ‘crowd out’ or ‘crowd in’ private sector activity? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Raisin UK i...

Investing is an uncertain journey, where chance, risk, and luck are constant companions. But can understanding probability help us live with the unknown? We're joined by Sir David Spiegelhalter , Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge and author of 'The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk, and Luck'. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask:...

The US Presidential election is less than two weeks away, and the result hangs in the balance. While markets appear calm, a second Trump term could have profound effects on global economies and investments. We discuss how the so-called 'Trump Trade' might impact different assets and sectors. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is a strong or weak dollar better? --- Thank you to Trading 212 f...

Investing, at its core, is about postponing consumption in the belief that time is your friend. Yet time has powerful effects on all aspects of markets, magnifying returns, blunting volatility, and warping the very value of money itself. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why can’t we time the market? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional shar...

Despite record tax revenues, Britain's public services are struggling. So what's gone wrong and how do we fix it? We sit down with Paul Johnson , Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and author of Follow the Money, to unpick the issues behind Britain's stagnation. We explore the structural challenges facing the UK economy, strategies to revive growth, and which taxes might rise in the upco...

China’s economic boom has slowed as debt, deflation, and demographics weigh on the economy. Beijing belatedly announced a massive stimulus package, cutting interest rates and funnelling money into the stock market. But will it be enough to turn around the world's second biggest economy? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between fiscal and monetary policy? --- Thank yo...

Europe has suffered relative decline in recent decades, beset by sluggish economic growth, ageing populations, and stagnant wages. Meanwhile, the success of US Big Tech firms has seen America come to dominate global markets. We dig into a new report from the European Union to see if it offers a way to get Europe growing again. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is “productivity”? --- T...

Sometimes you need a safe place to stash your cash. Savings accounts, bonds and money market funds are all options but how can you maximise returns? And should you ‘lock in a rate’? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s wrong with Premium Bonds? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode.  Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Sax...

Creating a financial plan for your future requires estimating numerous unknown variables. How fast will your investments grow? How much will inflation erode your savings? Will taxes increase? We discuss the most important risks to consider and how to build a reliable plan in an uncertain world. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Will care costs ruin the plan? --- Thank you to Saxo for spons...

Mean reversion is one of the most powerful forces in financial markets. When returns, valuation or concentration rise to extreme levels, it’s usually only a matter of time before they come back into line with history. We discuss which aspects of markets are subject to mean reversion, and how long we might have to wait. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: If you love mean reversion so much, w...

Asset bubbles are an occasional, inevitable, and sometimes devastating feature of financial markets, making and breaking fortunes along the way. But what is the greatest bubble of all time? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are markets rational? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading...

Nine out of ten people are invested in their employer’s default pension strategy. However, a hands-off approach might not suit your personal circumstances, goals, or risk appetite. So, what should you consider before switching your pension? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is it worth filling gaps in your National Insurance record? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode....

Volatility comes with the territory when owning risky assets, yet investors still seek ways to hedge against it—or even profit from it. So, how can you capitalise on market turbulence, and is it worth the effort? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the MOVE index? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just cre...

Stock markets have been pummelled in recent days — is this is a flash crash or the start of something bigger? And why has fear spread so suddenly? We look at the potential culprits, including weak economic data, central bank surprises, and sky high valuations. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Should you buy the dip? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim fre...

Copper is integral to the global economy, and its importance will only increase as the world decarbonises its energy infrastructure. Bulls have long argued that supply will fail to keep up with rising demand, driving copper prices higher. So why have prices slumped in recent months? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Who is ‘Doctor Copper’? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode....

A botched software update hobbled IT systems around the world, grounding planes and taking TV stations off-air. But it’s not just computer systems that can crash and burn from an innocuous mistake — welcome to the ‘single point of failure’. We discuss underappreciated risks that could devastate your personal finances. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any investment completely safe? ---...

Last week saw a massive shift in markets, with unloved sectors and smaller stocks outperforming the mega-caps by a record amount. Is Big Tech’s dominance drawing to a close? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are small-cap funds forced to sell their winners? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode.  Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account...

After prices peaked two years ago, higher mortgage costs have caused the market to stall. But with rate cuts on the horizon, is normal service about to be resumed? We discuss how the change of government will affect the housing market. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does building more houses really lower prices? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode.  Sign up to claim G...

Diversification is the only free lunch in investing, yet many investors choose to overweight their domestic stock market. While the UK makes up a mere 4% of global markets, off-the-shelf portfolios often include shockingly large allocations to British firms. We discuss whether home country bias is a problem or if there are good reasons to favour domestic stocks. And in today’s Dumb Question of the...

We’re halfway through the year, and it’s time to take stock. The AI narrative continues to power the equity bull market. Central banks have started to cut interest rates. And the US Presidential election looms large. We debate if things are as good as they look and what risks lie ahead for the second half of 2024. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What isn’t priced in? --- Thank you to Tra...

Labour is 20 points ahead in the polls and looks set to form the next UK government. But how will their economic, tax and spending plans impact investors? We look at the promises included in Labour’s manifesto and what was left unsaid. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why are capital gains taxed at a lower rate than income? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  C...

Central banks in Europe and Canada cut interest rates for the first time since the pandemic, lowering borrowing costs and kicking off the easing cycle. Are the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve about to join them? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does it matter if inflation stays above 2%? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional shares w...

Should investors fear the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies? US President Joe Biden recently announced a slew of new tariffs on Chinese imports, including a massive 100% charge on electric vehicles. What comes next? And in today's Dumb Question of the Week: Is China uninvestable? ___ Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional shar...

The evidence suggests that certain types of stock tend to beat the market in the long run. Patient investors can reap higher returns by tilting towards stocks that are cheap, high-quality or rising in price. But how easy is it to identify undervalued companies? And what risks are involved in building a DIY portfolio? This week we speak to Ed Croft, the co-founder of Stockopedia, about multi-factor...

As interest rates have risen, more and more people are interested in buying bonds. Individual government bonds can be a useful tool to lock in a high rate. But do individual bonds really make more sense than bond funds? --- Get a FREE share 🎁 worth between £10 and £100, exclusively for Many Happy Return's listeners.  Ready to claim your FREE share?  1️⃣ Open a Freetrade account via&nbsp...