Many Happy Returns

Gilt yields are surging, straining government finances and raising fears of tax rises or spending cuts. But is this a UK-specific problem? And will the Bank of England be forced to respond? We're joined by Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment bank Panmure Liberum. Simon writes on economics for The Times and previously worked in senior government roles at the UK cabinet...

Since the sweeping reforms of the 1980s, China's rapid industrialisation and extraordinary growth have transformed it into a true global power. But the engine of China's economic miracle is starting to sputter. Sluggish demand, mounting debt, and unfavourable demographics suggest trouble ahead. We're joined by George Magnus, a leading China expert who has written extensively on the risks facing th...

Investor sentiment is more bullish than ever, with a record share of Americans expecting the S&P 500 to rise in 2025. Is this the peak of euphoria? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between hard and soft data? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading 212 Invest...

Compared to developed countries, emerging markets have rarely looked cheaper. With valuations, economic growth, and demographic trends in their favour, is now the time to invest? Or could climate change, protectionism and debt hold them back? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is South Korea an emerging market? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fract...

Germany is one of few Western countries to remain truly industrialised, boasting a massive manufacturing base and trade surplus. And yet, things have gone off the rails, with the economy contracting and the governing coalition collapsing. We're joined by Wolfgang Münchau, whose new book argues we are witnessing the end of the German economic miracle. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we as...

Sensationalist headlines often lead to poor investment decisions, causing many investors to fixate on issues that have little impact on long-term returns. So, where should investors really focus their attention? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Should you invest if you’re very nervous? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode.  Raisin UK is a free, easy-to-use online sa...

Political risk is one of the most unquantifiable aspects of investing — and one of the most consequential. Shifts in regulation, tax and trade policies can shake economies and upend asset prices. Our guest today is economist Larry Hatheway, who argues that markets vastly underestimate the dangers of a second Trump presidency. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Are trade deficits a p...

How should you invest when everything is expensive? Stock market valuations are stretched, gold is up 40% on a year ago, and bitcoin has hit an all-time high. With some analysts forecasting a ‘lost decade’ for US stocks, is it time to look elsewhere? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why is Warren Buffett holding so much cash? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode.  R...

Gilt yields rose after the Autumn budget as markets absorbed sharp rises in investment, taxes and borrowing. Does Liz Truss’s mini-budget still haunt UK debt markets? And is there a risk that investors will shun UK debt? In today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does public investment ‘crowd out’ or ‘crowd in’ private sector activity? --- Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Raisin UK i...

Investing is an uncertain journey, where chance, risk, and luck are constant companions. But can understanding probability help us live with the unknown? We're joined by Sir David Spiegelhalter , Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge and author of 'The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk, and Luck'. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask:...

The US Presidential election is less than two weeks away, and the result hangs in the balance. While markets appear calm, a second Trump term could have profound effects on global economies and investments. We discuss how the so-called 'Trump Trade' might impact different assets and sectors. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is a strong or weak dollar better? --- Thank you to Trading 212 f...

Investing, at its core, is about postponing consumption in the belief that time is your friend. Yet time has powerful effects on all aspects of markets, magnifying returns, blunting volatility, and warping the very value of money itself. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why can’t we time the market? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional shar...

Despite record tax revenues, Britain's public services are struggling. So what's gone wrong and how do we fix it? We sit down with Paul Johnson , Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and author of Follow the Money, to unpick the issues behind Britain's stagnation. We explore the structural challenges facing the UK economy, strategies to revive growth, and which taxes might rise in the upco...

China’s economic boom has slowed as debt, deflation, and demographics weigh on the economy. Beijing belatedly announced a massive stimulus package, cutting interest rates and funnelling money into the stock market. But will it be enough to turn around the world's second biggest economy? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between fiscal and monetary policy? --- Thank yo...

Europe has suffered relative decline in recent decades, beset by sluggish economic growth, ageing populations, and stagnant wages. Meanwhile, the success of US Big Tech firms has seen America come to dominate global markets. We dig into a new report from the European Union to see if it offers a way to get Europe growing again. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is “productivity”? --- T...

Sometimes you need a safe place to stash your cash. Savings accounts, bonds and money market funds are all options but how can you maximise returns? And should you ‘lock in a rate’? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s wrong with Premium Bonds? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode.  Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account with Sax...

Creating a financial plan for your future requires estimating numerous unknown variables. How fast will your investments grow? How much will inflation erode your savings? Will taxes increase? We discuss the most important risks to consider and how to build a reliable plan in an uncertain world. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Will care costs ruin the plan? --- Thank you to Saxo for spons...

Mean reversion is one of the most powerful forces in financial markets. When returns, valuation or concentration rise to extreme levels, it’s usually only a matter of time before they come back into line with history. We discuss which aspects of markets are subject to mean reversion, and how long we might have to wait. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: If you love mean reversion so much, w...

Asset bubbles are an occasional, inevitable, and sometimes devastating feature of financial markets, making and breaking fortunes along the way. But what is the greatest bubble of all time? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are markets rational? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just create and verify a Trading...

Nine out of ten people are invested in their employer’s default pension strategy. However, a hands-off approach might not suit your personal circumstances, goals, or risk appetite. So, what should you consider before switching your pension? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is it worth filling gaps in your National Insurance record? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode....

Volatility comes with the territory when owning risky assets, yet investors still seek ways to hedge against it—or even profit from it. So, how can you capitalise on market turbulence, and is it worth the effort? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the MOVE index? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim free fractional shares worth up to ‎£⁠100. Just cre...

Stock markets have been pummelled in recent days — is this is a flash crash or the start of something bigger? And why has fear spread so suddenly? We look at the potential culprits, including weak economic data, central bank surprises, and sky high valuations. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Should you buy the dip? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for sponsoring this episode.  Claim fre...

Copper is integral to the global economy, and its importance will only increase as the world decarbonises its energy infrastructure. Bulls have long argued that supply will fail to keep up with rising demand, driving copper prices higher. So why have prices slumped in recent months? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Who is ‘Doctor Copper’? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode....

A botched software update hobbled IT systems around the world, grounding planes and taking TV stations off-air. But it’s not just computer systems that can crash and burn from an innocuous mistake — welcome to the ‘single point of failure’. We discuss underappreciated risks that could devastate your personal finances. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any investment completely safe? ---...

Last week saw a massive shift in markets, with unloved sectors and smaller stocks outperforming the mega-caps by a record amount. Is Big Tech’s dominance drawing to a close? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are small-cap funds forced to sell their winners? --- Thank you to Saxo for sponsoring this episode.  Sign up to claim GBP 200 back in online trading fees when you open an account...