Many Happy Returns

How would your portfolio cope with a severe economic shock? We’ve picked out five different scenarios to stress test our finances, including recessions, depressions, and sky-high inflation. But how should we think about tail-risks, and what we can do to prepare? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why haven’t wealth preservation funds preserved wealth this year? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensi...

Politicians are tasked with steering the economy and spreading prosperity. But, shockingly, not all of their claims about money and markets stack up. We discuss common misconceptions in politics and the political truisms that mislead us about investing. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is insider trading? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm ---...

How can we maintain our quality of life in retirement without exhausting our funds? We don’t know how long we will live, and the unpredictability of inflation and market crashes combine to make retirement planning one of the most intricate puzzles in investing. We discuss how to manage the risks and what strategies can help us enjoy our golden years. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is it...

We’re halfway through the year, and it’s time to take stock. Central banks are approaching the end of the hiking cycle. The S&P 500 has entered a new bull market. And bonds are paying more than 5%. We discuss where the investing opportunities might lie and what risks lurk for the rest of 2023. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensio...

The UK has the highest inflation of any major economy, and markets expect the Bank of England to keep hiking interest rates in response. But how high could rates go? Will mortgages become unaffordable? We discuss the chances of a recession and whether house prices could crash. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do central banks raise interest rates incrementally rather than in one big j...

The US Securities and Exchange Commission charged Binance and Coinbase with operating illegal securities exchanges. These are the two biggest names in crypto, accounting for more than half of global trading. Does this mark the beginning of the end of the wild west era of crypto? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What exactly is a security? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-h...

Markets are eerily calm. Stock volatility is low, and the Vix fear gauge has plunged to pre-pandemic levels. But is this the quiet before the storm? With the US debt ceiling now resolved, some fear that replenishing the Treasury’s coffers could rattle the serenity of markets. Others fret about heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. So are markets too complacent? And in today’s Dumb Question of the...

When it comes to investing, time is your friend. If you get started early, compound returns do a lot of the heavy lifting for you! But what if you didn’t put money into the market when you were young… what if you start investing later in life? We discuss ways to reach our goals and the compromises we might have to make. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are target-date retirement funds a g...

Japanese stocks have hit their highest level in 33 years. With markets closing in on record highs seen in the 1980s, are Japanese stocks finally about to escape the shadow of the bubble? We dig into what’s behind the rally and if it has further to run. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a value trap? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Joi...

Investing is said to involve climbing a wall of worry… so where will the next crisis come from? A good place to look for clues is the Fed’s twice-yearly Financial Stability Report. The latest report highlights risks at banks, money-market funds and commercial real estate, but will they really cause the next crash? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Surely low liquidity just means the price...

The stock market has been on a tear, with the S&P 500 up more than 15% since its October lows. But is the rally supported by the fundamentals? Or is it about to go into reverse? Do company earnings and valuations justify the buoyant market? Or is it driven by hype around artificial intelligence? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Has TINA turned into TARA? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensio...

Inflation has started to subside but remains worryingly high across the world. Will central banks need to raise rates higher still? Will inflation fall back to its 2% target without a recession? And will the Bank of England stop saying mad stuff? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Will high prices be with us forever? When inflation falls, prices don’t fall, do they? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@...

Some people claim that active managers can capitalise on market crashes to beat the benchmark. But do they really save us from being savaged by bears? The analysts at S&P Dow Jones have been hard at work on their updated Index vs Active scorecard, and the numbers for 2022 are hot off the press. The latest data reveals that UK active funds experienced their worst underperformance on record. We...

An all-weather portfolio aims to deliver steady growth while minimising risk. Pioneered by Ray Dalio, the strategy emphasises diversification across asset classes to keep on chugging, through rain or shine. We discuss how to construct a portfolio for all seasons, and whether it lives up to its promise. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How does a tail-risk fund work? --- Get in touch 📧 mh...

Growth stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride — soaring during the pandemic, only to plunge as interest rates climbed. We consider two prime examples of the growth stock phenomenon: Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood's ARKK. We dig into the funds' investment philosophies, faltering performance, and whether they are set for a resurgence. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: W...

Contagion can be rapid, unpredictable and destabilising. When a financial institution gets into trouble, it can cause a chain reaction, punishing investors, banks and even countries. We discuss what factors cause these crises to spread and what we should do about it as investors. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a CoCo, and are they about to pop? Selected links The Unholy Trinity...

On Friday last week, Silicon Valley Bank—the 16th biggest bank in the United States—succumbed to a bank run and was declared insolvent. With markets gripped by fear, the US authorities stepped in on Sunday night to guarantee customer deposits and backstop the financial system. But why did SVB collapse? What happens next? And what are the risks to the broader financial system? And in today’s Dumb Q...

After more than a decade of near zero interest rates, it is now possible to earn some income from cash and short-term investments. But where should you park your cash? There are many options from bank accounts to money market funds to bonds. Each come with their own benefits, risks and quirks. But why we would even hold cash? And what makes 2023 a potentially lucrative environment for short-term i...

Forged in the final moments of exploding neutron stars, gold has the best origin story of any asset. To some, gold’s scarcity and history make it the only real form of money. To others, it's just a shiny rock. It's claimed to be an inflation hedge, a trusted store of value, and the asset to own when all else fails. But does gold have a role to play in our portfolios? And in today’s Dumb Question o...

Does growth beat value? Does equal weighting outperform? Will the US always be the leading market? Over the last 100 years, simply buying and holding the stock market would have made you rich. But that doesn’t stop people searching for ways to juice their returns. This week we discuss seven ways to slice the stock market. From sectors to factors to weightings, we look at different ways to tilt you...

One in five couples identify money as their greatest relationship challenge. And when it comes to investing, 40% of couples disagree on how much risk to take. So how should we grow wealth with our partners? And what strategies can help minimise disagreements along the way? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: On divorce, would you rather have the pension or the property? Selected links 2021 C...

To be better investors, we need to make better decisions. With a few simple steps, we can structure our thinking and improve our investments. We all struggle with bias and unstructured thinking. But there are systems we can use that nudge us into making higher-quality decisions. We discuss framing decisions to align with investing goals, overcoming analysis paralysis, and the 37 Percent Rule. And...

Justin Bieber sold his back catalogue for $200m. This follows eye-watering sales for megastars like Bob Dylan, Bruce Springsteen and Tina Turner. But why are music rights now the hottest asset on the planet? We discuss how the music industry has turned itself around, the risks of owning song rights, and whether royalties deserve a place in our portfolio. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: W...

Institutional investors, hedge funds, and professional managers dominate financial markets. Collectively, they make up 90% of trading and are sometimes called ‘smart money’. But are they really that smart? Do they know something we don’t? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a hedge fund? --- Get in touch 📧 mhr@pensioncraft.com 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft...

The United States is again toying with defaulting on its national debt. If the $31 trillion debt ceiling were breached without the limit being raised, it’s fair to say all hell would break loose. But how likely is a default? And what would happen to markets if the US really jumped off the cliff? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Who is the national debt owed to anyway? --- Get in touch 📧...