Die ekonomie minuut

Randaksepbank en die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek het gister aangekondig dat hulle sakevertroue-indeks onveranderd gebly het vanaf die derde na die vierde kwartaal, op 43 punte. ʼn Telling onder 50 beteken dat sakelui bedruk is oor ekonomiese vooruitsigte.

If you have been wondering how strong the external forces are that are affecting the South African economy, you only need to look at the rand-dollar exchange rate. The rand weakened over the last month from R14.72 per dollar to R15.81 yesterday. Several factors play a role, but it seems that the rand will be under pressure for the foreseeable future.

As mens gewonder het hoe sterk die buitelandse kragte is wat inwerk op die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie hoef jy net na die rand-dollar wisselkoers te kyk. Die rand het oor die laaste maand verswak van R14,72 per dollar na R15,81 gister. Verskeie faktore speel ʼn rol, maar dit lyk of die rand onder druk gaan wees vir die afsienbare toekoms.

We all know all too well that food prices have increased sharply this year. The impact of this on households depends people's shopping baskets. The consumer price index looks at the average household where food accounts for 15% of total spending. There are other approaches that focus specifically on poor households. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, or BFAP, publishes a Thrifty Healthy...

Ons almal weet maar te goed dat voedselpryse hierdie jaar skerp gestyg het. Die impak hiervan op huishoudings verskil soos wat mense se inkopiemandjies verskil. Die verbruikersprysindeks kyk na die gemiddelde huishouding waar voedsel 15% van totale besteding beloop. Daar is ander benaderings wat spesifiek op arm huishoudings fokus. Die Buro vir Voedsel- en landboubeleid, afgekort BFAP in Engels, p...

Last week, I only talked about inflation and the Reserve Bank's repo rate decision and some other economic news fell by the wayside. Here's a chance to catch up fast.

Verlede week het ek net gepraat oor inflasie en die Reserwebank se repokoersbesluit en van die ander ekonomiese nuus afgeskeep. Hier is ʼn kans om vinnig in te haal.

Yesterday the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank announced that the repo rate will be increased by 25 basis points, to 3.75%. The prime rate, therefore, rises to 7.25%. The explanation for this did not satisfy everyone. (should they just have said that they are now defending the mid-point of the target range?)

Die Monetêre beleidskomittee van die Reserwebank het gister aangekondig dat die repokoers verhoog word met 25 basispunte, of te wel tot 3,75%. Die primakoers styg dus tot 7,25%. Die verklaring hiervoor het nie almal tevrede gestel nie. (moes hulle maar gesê het hulle verdedig nou die middelpunt van die teikenband?)

Statistics South Africa yesterday announced October's consumer price index and inflation figures. Month-on-month, inflation increased by 0.2%, but the annualized rate was unchanged at 5%. It does not sound like news, but there are some interesting aspects to highlight.

Statistieke Suid-Afrika het gister Oktobermaand se verbruikersprysindeks en inflasiesyfer bekend gemaak. Maand-tot-maand het inflasie met 0,2% toegeneem, maar die jaarlikse koers was soos in Septembermaand 5%. Dit klink nie na nuus nie, maar daar is ʼn paar interessante aspekte om uit te lig.

In gister se episode het ek geargumenteer dat die binnelandse faktore wat druk plaas op inflasie nog nie so sterk is dat dit ʼn styging in die repokoers noodsaak nie. Ekonome verwag dat Oktobermaand se inflasie syfer, wat later vandag bekend gemaak word, ʼn klein maand-tot-maand styging van 0.2% gaan hê en dat die jaarliksekoers onveranderd gaan bly op 5%. Dus moet ons praat oor die buitelandse fakt...

In yesterday's episode, I argued that the domestic factors that put pressure on inflation are not yet so strong that they necessitate a rise in the repo rate. Economists expect that October's inflation figure, which will be announced later today, will show a small month-on-month increase of 0.2% and that the annualized rate will remain unchanged at 5%. So, we need to talk about the foreign factors...

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will hold its last meeting of the year on Thursday and economists are waiting to see if this will be the start of a series of repo rate hikes. They need to decide whether we are experiencing a sustained increase in the general price level that could potentially cause inflation to rise above the target band of 3-6%. This episode covers the domestic consi...

Die Reserwebank se Monetêre beleidskomittee hou Donderdag hulle laaste vergadering van die jaar en ekonome wag om te sien of dit die begin gaan wees van ʼn reeks verhogings van die repokoers. Hulle moet besluit of ons ʼn volgehoue styging in die algemene prysvlak beleef wat inflasie moontlik bo die teikenband van 3-6% kan laat styg. Hierdie episode gaan oor die binnelandse faktore wat 'n rol speel i...

Na al verlede week se episodes oor die mini-begroting en fiskale beleid skuif die fokus hierdie week na inflasie en die Monetêre beleidskomittee se repokoersbesluit. Oktobermaand se verbruikersprysinflasiesyfer word Woensdag bekend gemaak en die repokoersbesluit is Donderdagmiddag. Ek wil met bietjie agtergrond begin.

After last week's episodes on the mini-budget and fiscal policy, the focus this week shifts to inflation and the Monetary Policy Committee's repo rate decision. October's consumer price inflation figure will be announced on Wednesday and the repo rate decision is on Thursday afternoon. I want to start with some background.

Kommentators en markte het van die mini-begroting gehou, maar verteenwoordig dit dalk net een kant in 'n voortslepende stryd van idees binne die regering?

Commentators and markets liked the mini-budget, but does it only present one side in a war of ideas?

Die Minister van Finansies het vanmiddag vas gestaan in sy eerste mini-begroting. Vooraf was daar baie spekulasie dat hy dalk sal skietgee met die program van fiskale konsolidasie en van sy ekstra belasting inkomste sal gebruik vir toelae, of ʼn ekonomiese stimulusprogram. Sy begroting sal dalk Suid-Afrika se sosialiste ontstel, maar hy het al die regte dinge gesê.

The Minister of Finance held the line in his first mini-budget this afternoon. Beforehand, there was a lot of speculation that he might ease the fiscal consolidation program and use some of his windfall tax revenue for grants, or an economic stimulus program. His budget may upset South Africa's socialists, but he said all the right things.

Die paar dae voor die MTBR het almal iets te sê. Daar was al sprake dat alle toelae met ʼn familie toelaag vervang gaan word, vakbonde vra vir ʼn R1 miljoen miljoen stimulusprogram om die ekonomie aan die gang te kry, en so tussen die beurtkrag deur wonder mense of daar ʼn oplossing vir Eskom se probleme in die begroting gaan wees.

The few days before the MTBPS everyone has something to say. There have been rumours that all grants will be replaced with a family grant, unions are asking for an R1 million million stimulus program to get the economy going, and so in between rounds of load shedding, people are wondering if there is a solution to Eskom's problems in the budget.

When the Minister of Finance delivers the mini-budget, economic scenarios play an important role. If the economy grows, he gets more tax revenue and all the important ratios, such as the budget deficit to GDP and debt to GDP, look better. This year, Minister Godongwana is in a favourable position because economists expect the economy to grow by 5% by 2020. We should be concerned about future growt...

Wanneer die Minister van Finansies die mini-begroting lewer, speel ekonomiese vooruitsigte ʼn belangrike rol. As die ekonomie groei kry hy meer belastinginkomste en al die belangrike verhoudings, soos die begrotingtekort tot BBP en skuld tot BBP, lyk beter. Hierdie jaar is Minister Godongwana in ʼn gunstige posisie want ekonome verwag dat die ekonomie met 5% gaan groei in 2020. Dit is die groeivooru...