Die ekonomie minuut

Die Minister van Finansies het vanmiddag vas gestaan in sy eerste mini-begroting. Vooraf was daar baie spekulasie dat hy dalk sal skietgee met die program van fiskale konsolidasie en van sy ekstra belasting inkomste sal gebruik vir toelae, of ʼn ekonomiese stimulusprogram. Sy begroting sal dalk Suid-Afrika se sosialiste ontstel, maar hy het al die regte dinge gesê.

The Minister of Finance held the line in his first mini-budget this afternoon. Beforehand, there was a lot of speculation that he might ease the fiscal consolidation program and use some of his windfall tax revenue for grants, or an economic stimulus program. His budget may upset South Africa's socialists, but he said all the right things.

Die paar dae voor die MTBR het almal iets te sê. Daar was al sprake dat alle toelae met ʼn familie toelaag vervang gaan word, vakbonde vra vir ʼn R1 miljoen miljoen stimulusprogram om die ekonomie aan die gang te kry, en so tussen die beurtkrag deur wonder mense of daar ʼn oplossing vir Eskom se probleme in die begroting gaan wees.

The few days before the MTBPS everyone has something to say. There have been rumours that all grants will be replaced with a family grant, unions are asking for an R1 million million stimulus program to get the economy going, and so in between rounds of load shedding, people are wondering if there is a solution to Eskom's problems in the budget.

When the Minister of Finance delivers the mini-budget, economic scenarios play an important role. If the economy grows, he gets more tax revenue and all the important ratios, such as the budget deficit to GDP and debt to GDP, look better. This year, Minister Godongwana is in a favourable position because economists expect the economy to grow by 5% by 2020. We should be concerned about future growt...

Wanneer die Minister van Finansies die mini-begroting lewer, speel ekonomiese vooruitsigte ʼn belangrike rol. As die ekonomie groei kry hy meer belastinginkomste en al die belangrike verhoudings, soos die begrotingtekort tot BBP en skuld tot BBP, lyk beter. Hierdie jaar is Minister Godongwana in ʼn gunstige posisie want ekonome verwag dat die ekonomie met 5% gaan groei in 2020. Dit is die groeivooru...

This week, the economic news is going to be about the medium-term budget policy statement. Last week I talked about how important it is for the Minister of Finance to continue with the fiscal consolidation needed to reduce government debt. But let's take a step back and explain what the MTBPS is.

Hierdie week gaan die ekonomiese nuus gaan oor die medium-termyn begrotingsbeleidsraamwerk. Ek het verlede week al gesels oor hoe belangrik dit is dat die Minister van Finansies voortgaan met die fiskale konsolidasie wat nodig is om die staatskuld te verminder. Maar kom ons gee ʼn tree terug en verduidelik wat is die MTBR.

If you're one of the regular listeners of this podcast, you know that inflation in the US is a big topic. If inflation rises there, the Federal Reserve will end its expansionary monetary policy. This can be a shock to stock markets and emerging market currencies. Whether US inflation is sustained, or transitory, is of significance for us in South Africa.

As jy een van die gereelde luisters van hierdie podcast is sal jy weet dat inflasie in die VSA ʼn groot onderwerp is. As inflasie daar styg gaan die Federale Reserwebank hulle uitbreidende monetêre beleid beeindig. Dit kan ʼn skok wees vir aandelebeurse en ontluikende markte se geldeenhede. Of Amerikaanse inflasie volgehoud, of van ʼn verbygaande aard is, is baie belangrik vir ons in Suid-Afrika.

Yesterday I talked about next week's mini-budget and whether the Minister of Finance can use his tax windfall to expand social grants. Making the Covid allowance for unemployed adults permanent, or introducing a basic income grant, will require more money than a one-year surge in commodity prices can yield. A better plan is to borrow less, because South Africa has a debt problem.

Ek het gister gesels oor volgende week se mini-begroting en of die Minister van Finansies sy belasting meervaller kan gebruik om sosiale toelae uit te brei. Om die Covid-toelaag vir werklose volwassenes permanent te maak, of om ʼn basiese inkomstetoelaag in te stel gaan meer geld vra as wat ʼn een-jaar opleweling in kommoditeitspryse kan oplewer. ʼn Beter plan is om minder te leen, want Suid-Afrika h...

With fuel prices rising and load shedding back, your next concern may be next week's mini-budget, but many economists think it doesn't have to be. It is all about how the minister will spend his tax windfall.

Met die brandstofprys op rekord hoogte en beurtkrag wat weer terug is, is jou volgende bekommernis dalk volgende week se mini-begroting, maar baie ekonome dink dat dit nie hoef te wees nie. Dit gaan alles oor hoe die minister sy belastingmeevaller bestee.

Terwyl ons wag vir die uitlae van die plaaslike verkiesings is daar darem ekonomiese nuus om dop te hou: ABSA se aankopebestuurdersindeks, Naamsa se data oor voertuigverkope, en die brandstofprys.

While we are waiting for the results of the local elections, there is some economic news to keep an eye on: ABSA's PMI, Naamsa vehicle sales, and the petrol price.

Economists did not said much about today's local elections. Probably because it is not directly related to fiscal policy, or the country's credit rating, or inflation. Last week we were more worried about load shedding than about the election. But although economic policy is not made at the local level, it is where large parts of it play out. The availability of electricity and water has a lot to...

Ekonome het nie veel te sê gehad oor vandag se plaaslike verkiesings nie. Seker omdat dit nie direk ʼn invloed het op fiskale beleid, of die land se kredietgradering, of op inflasie nie. Die laaste week was ons meer bekommerd oor beurtkrag as oor die verkiesing. Maar hoewel ekonomiese beleid nie op plaaslike vlak gemaak word nie, is dit tog waar groot dele daarvan uitspeel. Die beskikbaarheid van e...

With local elections around the turn and load shedding the order of the day, this week's economic data did not really make the news. Stay tuned for more about PPI and the SARB's business cycle indicators.

Met die plaaslike verkiesing om die draai en beurtkrag aan die orde van die dag het hierdie week se ekonomiese data het nie werklik die nuus gehaal nie. Bly ingeskakel vir meer oor die PPI en die SARB se sakesiklusaanwysers.

Die laaste paar dae word daar weer baie geskryf oor dit wat nodig is om die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie op dreef te kry. Party kommentators vra vir drastiese stappe, ʼn basiese inkomstetoelaag, of dat ons net eers die skuldlas onder beheer moet kry. Sommige sal sê arbeidsmarkhervorming, maar is verstaanbaar versigtig om te verduidelik presies wat verander moet word. Die een aspek is die stelsel van ko...

In the last few days, a lot has been written about what is needed to get the South African economy up and running. Some commentators are asking for drastic steps, others for a basic income allowance, or that we should just get the debt burden under control first. Some would say labour market reform but are understandably cautious to explain exactly what needs to be changed. The one aspect is the s...

In the run-up to the COP26 climate change summit, it is clear that coal-fired energy generation is out of fashion. But new research shows that cattle emit far more greenhouse gases than previously thought and the most effective way to reduce your carbon footprint is to eat pork instead.

In aanloop na die COP26 beraad oor klimaatsverandering is dit duidelik dat energie-opwekking met steenkool uit die mode is. Maar nuwe navorsing wys dat beeste heelwat meer kweekhuisgasse vrystel as wat vroeer gedink is en die mees effektiewe manier om jou koolstofvoetspoor te verklein is om eerder varkvleis te eet.

Ek praat die laaste tyd baie oor inflasie en hierdie week se groot aanwyser is September maand se produksieprys indekssyfer wat Donderdag bekend gemaak word. Ekonome hoop om te sien of die stygings in brandstofpryse en bottelnekke in voorsieningskettings druk plaas op produksiepryse.