Die ekonomie minuut

People everywhere are making predictions about what will happen in the future, but how much of it is cheap talk? If you are convinced that the Springboks will beat the Wallabies you can bet money on it, but what about all the predictions about interest rates and how much they will rise this year? In the US there is now a market for this, and it is known as Kalshi.com. * The Economics Minute is sup...

Oral is mense besig om voorspellings te maak oor wat in die toekoms gaan gebeur, maar hoeveel daarvan is goedkoop praatjies? As jy oortuig is dat die Springbokke die Wallabies gaan klop kan jy geld daarop verwed, maar hoe gemaak met al die voorspellings oor rentekoerse en met hoeveel dit hierdie jaar nog gaan styg? In die VSA is daar nou ‘n mark vir dit, en dit staan bekend as Kalshi.com. * Die Ek...

Dit is die beste om aan die begin van hierdie episode te sê ek is nie ʼn landboukundige nie. Ek volg wel die nuus dat die Minister van Landbou gister aangekondig het dat as gevolg van bek-en-klouseer word daar vir 21 dae ʼn verbod ingestel op die verskuiwing van beeste. Dit beteken dat boere nie beeste kan skuif tussen weidings nie en dat geen veilings gehou kan word nie. Waar die kontanvloei dun is...

It is best to say at the beginning of this episode that I am not an agronomist. I do follow the news that the Minister of Agriculture announced yesterday that due to foot-and-mouth disease, a ban on the movement of cattle will be introduced for 21 days. This means that farmers cannot move cattle between pastures and that no auctions can be held. Where cash flow is thin this will put pressure on in...

Mens kan sê dat die rand-dollar wisselkoers is op ʼn wipplank rondom R16 vir ʼn dollar. Vroeg in Juniemaand het dit R15,30 gehaal maar teen middel Julie was dit R17,15. Daarna het die rand weer versterk tot rondom R16,20 verlede week. Ons sal almal graag wil weet wat volgende gaan gebeur. Dink maar aan die landboubedryf waar die somerplantseisoen se insetkoste, soos brandstof, beinvloed word deur di...

One could say that the rand-dollar exchange rate is on a seesaw around R16 to a dollar. In early June it reached R15,30 but by mid-July it was R17,15. After that, the rand strengthened again to around R16.20 last week. We would all like to know what will happen next. Just think of the agricultural industry where the summer planting season's input costs, such as fuel, are influenced by the exchange...

Verlede week is die laaste van die tweede kwartaal se produksie-aanwysers bekend gemaak met data oor produksie in die vervaardigingsektor en mynbou in Juniemaand. Mynbouproduksie het vir die vyfde maand in ʼn ry afgeneem en jaar-op-jaar was uitset 8% laer. Vervaardigingsaktiwiteit het met 3,5% afgeneem in Juniemaand. * Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

Last week, the last of the second quarter's production indicators were released with data on production in the manufacturing sector and mining for the month of June. Mining production declined for the fifth month in a row and year-on-year output was down 8%. Manufacturing activity decreased by 3.5% in June. * The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

In die Ekonomie professie word vroue nie so goed verteenwoordig soos in ander beroepe nie. Baie van die ou Proffies is mans en die kommentariaat wat jy gereeld oor die radio hoor, is mans. Maar ek dink dit is besig om beter te word en so, ter viering van vrouedag hierdie week, wil ek graag ʼn klompie vroue ekonome noem wat besig is om ʼn impak te maak en as inspirasie kan dien vir die volgende gener...

Women are underrepresented in the Economics profession. Many of the old Profs are men and most of the commentariat that you often hear on the radio are men. But I think it's getting better, and thus, in celebration of women's day this week, I'd like to name a group of female economists who are making an impact and can serve as inspiration for the next generation of young ladies who are now in my c...

Die afgelope paar weke het die media groot dekking gegee aan die uitdagings wat die landboubedryf en beleidmakers in die gesig staar in die internasionale handelsomgewing. Minister Patel het die teen-stortingtariewe op ingevoerde hoendervleis tydelik opgehef, ander ingestel op ingevoerde aardappelskyfies, en sitrus en wol-uitvoere het onder skoot gekom van fitosanitêre vereistes in Europa en Sjina...

Over the past few weeks, the media has given extensive coverage to the challenges facing the agricultural industry and policymakers in the international trade environment. Minister Patel temporarily lifted anti-dumping tariffs on imported chicken meat, imposed others on imported potato chips, and citrus and wool exports came under fire from phytosanitary requirements in Europe and China. * The Eco...

What happens in the US economy this year has a great influence on the rest of the world and us here in South Africa. If their inflation rate remains high, they will have to raise interest rates further. Then we also have to raise our repo rate and the exchange rate and stock market will remain volatile. If they manage to make a soft landing with inflation coming down without a major recession it w...

Wat in die Amerikaanse ekonomie gebeur het hierdie jaar ʼn groot invloed op die res van die wêreld en ons hier in Suid-Afrika. As hulle inflasie-koers hoog bly gaan hulle rentekoerse verder moet verhoog. Dan moet ons repo koerse ook moet verhoog en die wisselkoers en beurs gaan onstuimig bly. As hulle dit regkry om ʼn sagte landing te maak met inflasie wat afkom sonder ʼn groot resessie gaan dit vir...

Gister se episode het kortliks verduidelik hoe lyk die aanwysers van die aanbodkant van die ekonomie, maar dit is net een kant van die storie. As mens iets wil sê oor die BBP en ekonomiese groeivooruitsigte moet jy ook die vraagkant verstaan – met ander woorde, verbruiksbesteding, investering, owerheidsbesteding en netto uitvoer. Hier is ʼn kort opsomming van daardie aanwysers. * Die Ekonomie Minuu...

Yesterday's episode briefly explained what the indicators of the supply side of the economy look like, but that's only one side of the story. If one wants to say something about the GDP and economic growth prospects, one must also understand the demand side - in other words, consumption spending, investment, government spending and net exports. Here is a brief summary of those indicators. * The Ec...

Verlede week het my eerstejaarsstudente meer geleer oor hoe ons die ekonomie meet, spesifiek hoe groot dit is en of dit groei. Die maatstaf is natuurlik die Bruto Binnelandse Produk. Daar is ʼn verskeidenheid van faktore wat groei kan versnel of verlangsaam maar na ʼn bietjie beurtkrag het die klas verdaag sonder dat ons gepraat het oor hoe dit op die oomblik met ekonomiese groei gaan. Ek deel graag...

Last week, my first-year students learned more about how we measure the economy, specifically how big it is and whether it's growing. The measure is of course the Gross Domestic Product. There are a variety of factors that can accelerate or slow down growth, but after a bit of load shedding, the class adjourned without us talking about how the economy is going at the moment. I would like to share...

Yesterday an auntie stopped me in Dischem and asked when this podcast is going to share some positive economic news. Fortunately, BusinessDay then had just the story she was waiting for. It tells that Nedbank's latest Capital Expenditure Project Listing report shows that fixed investment could increase by 3.5% this year. * The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.

Gister het ʼn tannie my in Dischem voorgekeer en gevra wanneer deel hierdie potgooi bietjie positewe ekonomiese nuus. Gelukkig het BusinessDay toe net die berig waarvoor sy gewag het. Dit vertel dat Nedbank se nuutste kapitaalprojekteverslag wys dat vaste investering met 3,5% kan styg hierdie jaar. * Die Ekonomie Minuut word ondersteun deur die NWU Sakeskool.

The idea of a wealth tax pops up every now and then and was also mentioned at the ANC's policy conference as a way to finance a basic income grant. Exactly what is meant by the tax was not well explained, but the concept is that of a tax on the stock of wealth. It is not levied on income, but on the net worth of individuals. And this is where the problems begin. * The Economics Minute is supported...

Die idee van 'n welvaartbelasting duik elke nou en dan op en is ook weer by die ANC se beleidskonferensie genoem as ʼn manier om ʼn basiese inkomstetoelaag te finansier. Presies wat met die belasting bedoel word is nie mooi verduidelik nie, maar die konsep is dié van 'n belasting op jou totale rykdom. Dit word nie op inkomste gehef nie, maar op die netto waarde van individue. En dit is waar die prob...

Die ekonomiese nuus gaan deesdae oor die verlangsaming van die ekonomie. Hoëinsetkoste en hoë rentekoerse eis hulle tol en oral is daar tekens dat verbruikers hulle besteding terugsny en besighede probeer water trap. Hierdie week is belangrikse aanwysers is ABSA en die Buro vir Ekonomiese Ondersoek se aankopebestuurdersindeks en Naamsa se voertuigverkope data vir Juliemaand. * Die Ekonomie Minuut...

The economic news these days is about economic activity slowing down. High input costs and high interest rates are taking their toll and everywhere there are signs that consumers are cutting back on spending and businesses are trying to tread water. This week, key indicators are ABSA and the Bureau of Economic Research's purchasing managers' index and Naamsa's vehicle sales data for the month of J...

Policy uncertainty is when there is uncertainty about government policy or its consequences. This in turn could cause investment to be lower while investors wait and see what happens. So the ANC policy conference that took place this past weekend is also of interest to economists. * The Economics Minute is supported by the NWU Business School.