CommBank View: Economics & Markets

This week, CBA economists Harry Ottley and Stephen Wu discuss the RBA minutes released last week and look ahead to a busy week for Australian economic data.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au . Information in this podcast is of a gen...

We discuss the top four influences on currency markets this week, including a speech by FOMC Chair at Jackson Hole, the minutes of the RBA’s August meeting, Japan’s consumer price index and European wages.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia AB...

In this week’s podcast, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley talk through last weeks labour force survey and why despite strong employment outcomes, the unemployment rate continues to rise. They also discuss the impact a loosening labour market is having on wages growth and preview the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out tomorrow.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are...

The first look at household spending in July showed no change according to the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. The index was flat in seasonally adjusted terms, with annual growth sitting at 4.5% in original terms. Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details in the latest podcast and note there was no noticeable impact from the start of...

It was a big week with the RBA August Board Meeting and a hawkish tone in the statement and the press conference. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist deep dive into the meeting as well as the forecast updates in the Statement on Monetary Policy. The week ahead is also busy with the release of July employment data as well as the June quarter Wage Price Inde...

In this week’s episode we discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets, including the US CPI, Australian employment and wages, and UK employment and CPI.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the B...

This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the key influences on currency markets, including rising concerns of a US recession, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s impending interest rate decision, and New Zealand’s key employment data.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division o...

Finally the Q2 24 CPI printed last week. A softer than expected CPI print  removed the chance of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu wrap up the data as well as preview the RBA meeting which should be a low key affair. We stick to our base case that an easing cycle can commence in November 2024.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to...

This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the three major central bank meetings this week, that could influence the Australian dollar.  They also discuss the upcoming Australian CPI, which is widely regarded to make or break the case for an Reserve Bank of Australian interest rate hike next week.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Glob...

The long awaited Q2 24 CPI will be out Wednesday this week. How inflation prints will make or break the case for the RBA to increase interest rates at the August Board Meeting. In this podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley chat through why the CBA house view remains that a further interest rate rise will not be required but remains a clear risk. They also discuss the J...

This week Joseph Capurso and John Oh sit down to discuss a range of economic data and political events that could influence the Australian dollar. They discuss the recent announcement of President Biden stepping down from the elections, upcoming data releases in the US and Europe.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Res...

In this podcast, Economists Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss last week’s June labour force survey and March quarter building activity data. Despite rising unemployment, the labour force report does not stand in the way of a rate hike of the Q2 24 inflation data is sufficiently strong. Current and future residential building activity remains constrained by various forces, with improved outcomes...

This week Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso sit down to discuss a range of economic data and political events that could influence the Australian dollar.   They discuss the assassination attempt on President Trump, the Third Plenum in China, New Zealand and the UK CPIs.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”),...

Last week was quiet with three private sector surveys on the soft side and the release of the CommBank Household Spending Insights data for June. Harry Ottley, Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist talk through this data as well as preview the all important June labour market data this week. The outcome of the labour market data could have implications for our Reserve Bank of Australia vie...

The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) rose by 0.6%/mth in June with the gains driven by Recreation, Hospitality and Food & beverage goods. Only partly offsetting these gains were falls in Transport, Education, Household goods and Utilities. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into details as well as the weakness in spending by renters who are si...

Carol Kong (Economist and FX strategist) and Kristina Clifton (Senior international economist and FX strategist) discuss the outcome of the French parliamentary election and implications for EUR/USD.  They preview the US June CPI and FOMC Chair Jay Powell’s testimony which will likely be the main drivers of currencies this week.  They also run through a few reasons for why they expect further upsi...

On this weeks podcast, Harry Ottley (Economist) and Belinda Allen (Senior Economist) discuss last week’s RBA minutes and retail trade numbers. They also outline our updated home price forecasts and preview a quieter week ahead.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found a...

Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, joins John Oh, Sustainable Economist to discuss potential changes to Australia-Europe ties. In the episode, they find that the competition between the west and China in ‘green technology’ may encourage greater trade and investment between Australia, the European Union and the United Kingdom.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listenin...

In the weekly Global Economic and Markets Research podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist joins Belinda Allen, Senior Economist. They recap the stronger than expected May CPI Indicator and what it means for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Stephen has just returned from the US and shares his thoughts on the US economy, politics ahead of the US election in November as well as industry policy, cl...

Whilst electricity prices look to have settled in the coming 2024/25 financial year, further electricity rises look to be a credible risk.  However, there are several options available for small businesses to reduce their exposure to volatile electricity prices.  To discuss these options, John Oh, Sustainable Economist and Dennis Voznesenski, Agricultural and Sustainable Economist, sit down to dis...

In this podcast, Economist Stephen Wu and Head of Australian Economics Gareth Aird sit down to discuss last week’s RBA Board meeting and the upcoming inflation data. Despite some tweaks to the post-meeting Statement, the RBA’s messaging remains the same: they are data dependent and will wait and see what the inflation data says. The CPI indicator out later this week will inform forecasts for the a...

In this podcast, Harry Ottley (Economist) and Belinda Allen (Senior Economist) from the Aussie economics team review last week’s May labour force survey and preview the June RBA Board meeting. Last week, the unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in the last major economic data release before this week’s RBA Board meeting. Despite the fall in the unemployment rate, the labour market is broadly evolving as...

The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) rose by 1.1%/mth in May in what has been a choppy few months for the index.  Annual growth now sits at 4.3%/yr. In this podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, and Harry Ottley Economist discuss the results from May and how looking through the volatility in recent months paints a subdued environment for the consumer. Circuit breakers start 1 July th...

In this weeks podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird break down the soft Q1 24 GDP figures from last week and preview the critical May labour force survey that is due on Thursday.     ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.c...

The Australian economic data flow over the past week has highlighted three key themes. Soft retail sales data reinforced a weak household sector. A stronger than expected monthly CPI print led to questions over the stickiness of inflation. While capex data reinforced the positive contribution that investment is making in the economy. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Wu,...