CommBank View: Economics & Markets

All eyes were on the Q3 24 CPI data last week. While inflation continues to moderate, the disinflation process is not occurring quickly enough to warrant a rate cut by year end. As a result, we have shifted our base case and now expect the first interest rate cut to arrive in February next year. In this week’s podcast, Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird, Senior Economist, Stephen Wu and Eco...

In this episode, Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton talk through the key economic data in Australia and the US that can drive currencies this week.  They also discuss their expectations for the Japanese yen given the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting and political uncertainty.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“G...

After a quiet weekly locally the data flow ramps up with the release of the important September quarter inflation figures. Senior Economists Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive in the expectations for the Q3 24 CPI and what it means for the RBA. Retail trade data and the ABS HSI measure is released for September and can partially settle the debate about the consumer response to the income tax c...

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences impacting currency markets including the upcoming US election, interest rate differentials which have moved in favour of the Australian dollar, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this week.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GE...

The strength of the labour market continues to surprise. In this week’s podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss the recent strength in the Australian labour market and outline the implications for the RBA. They also talk through some of the thematic research the Aussie economics team published last week on inflation, rents and population.   ------ DISCLAIMER ---...

The global interest rate cut cycle has started.  And there are many more interest rate cuts ahead across most major economies.  CBA’s view is that the interest rate cuts will improve global economic outlook in 2025.  In the latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss CBA’s latest view and breakdown developm...

The CommBank HSI fell by 0.7% in September as consumers pulled back spending after the Father’s Day boosted splurge in August. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Harry Ottley, Economist discuss the all the key takeaways from the September HSI in today’s podcast.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research...

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including Chinese fiscal stimulus, Australian labour market data, the NZ CPI and the ECB’s interest rate announcement.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Com...

In this weeks podcast, Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird and Economist Harry Ottley talk through the RBA’s less hawkish communication from last week and touch on the private sector surveys that were released. They then move on to preview this week, with the September labour force survey in focus.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full...

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences impacting on currencies markets including Middle East conflict, potential fiscal stimulus from China and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business...

In this weeks podcast, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley talk through the current crosscurrents in the spending data in Australia and explain why the date of fathers day likely boosted the August retail trade figure. They also break down the other economic data from last week and preview a busy upcoming week of communication from the RBA.      ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, y...

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top there influences on currencies this week including US labour market data, the possibility of more Chinese economic stimulus and the new Prime Minister in Japan.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Austr...

Last week the RBA held rates and the August monthly CPI dipped to 2.7%/yr, both as expected. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu from the Australian Economics team deep dive into the RBA meeting, including a less hawkish press conference as well as the broadening disinflation trend in the August data. Stephen also discusses how the energy rebates will impact household consumption over the third quarter,...

In this podcast, Kristina Clifton sits down with Carol Kong to talk through all the stimulus measures announced by the Chinese authorities this week and their implications for the Chinese economy.   We continue to expect the government will deliver more fiscal stimulus soon.   The risk remains China’s economic growth will undershoot our forecast of 4.9% this year if our expected fiscal stimulus fa...

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the US inflation, and the RBA and PBoC’s interest rate decisions, and the likely impact on the Australian dollar.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Befo...

This week, Stephen Wu, Senior Economist and Harry Ottley, Economist discuss last week’s Aussie labour market data and explain how it was the trigger to push back CBA’s forecast for interest rate relief. They also look ahead and preview the RBA Board meeting and monthly CPI data this week.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic...

This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the three major central bank meetings and impacts on currency markets.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this podcast, yo...

In the Australian Economics Weekly podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist reflect on the weak consumer and business sentiment surveys released past week. Particularly the price signals from the business survey bode well for the inflation outlook. All eyes will be on the August labour market data released this week. We expect the unemployment rate to...

An early Father’s Day saw a lift in spending in August. The CommBank Household Spending Insights Index rose by 1.8%/mth with gains in spending on Household goods and Hospitality. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in this latest podcast. Education spending also rose while Utilities spend fell due to government rebates. Annual growth remains s...

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets, including the consumer price index in the US, the Chinese economic data dump for August, and the European central bank’s monetary policy announcement.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEM...

This week Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive in the June quarter GDP data. A soft result overall with growth of just 0.2% for the quarter and just 1% for the year. Weak consumption, strong public demand are discussed as well as the latest on household incomes, savings and productivity growth. A quiet week ahead locally with survey data out and also the CommBank Household Spending Insights data...

  This week Belinda Allen, Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird deep dive into the July CPI data as well as the upcoming June quarter GDP data. Stephen notes disinflation broadened in July, beyond the electricity rebates. July retail trade was soft given the start of income tax cuts. While Gareth discuss the June quarter GDP print which should show continued modest growth in the Australian economy.     ----...

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets: Australian GDP data, a series of US labour market reports and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth B...

Electrifying Australian cars have involved the uptake of various low-emission technologies ranging from hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs).  In the latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss the themes of electrification in Austra...

In this week’s episode, Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso discuss the top four influences affecting currency markets: Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, the US personal consumption expenditures inflation report, the Australian monthly CPI indicator for July, and European consumer price index for August.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distr...