CommBank View: Economics & Markets

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the major influences on the currencies this week including tariff news, Australian inflation data and several central bank interest rate announcements.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123...

While President Trump continues to dominate world news and global markets, the domestic focus this week will be on the critical Q4 2024 CPI data which could make or break the case for a February rate cut. In this week's podcast, Economist, Harry Ottley and Senior Economist, Stephen Wu take a deep dive on what we are expecting when the data prints at 11:30am Wednesday Sydney time.   ------ DISCLAIM...

The outlook for the Australian economy looks brighter in 2025 driven by expected interest rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of Australia. In our latest podcast the Australian Economics team deep dives into the outlook for growth, the labour market, inflation, wages, investment and housing.     ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Ec...

Carol Kong and Kristina Clifton discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including President Trump’s inauguration, New Zealand’s Q4 24 CPI and the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 1...

The choppy holiday spending period continued in December with a fall of 1.8% in the month in the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. This fall followed gains in October and November. Four categories fell in the month with Household goods recording the largest fall. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details of the HSI as well as the outloo...

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso talk about the top three influences on currency markets this week including the US CPI, Australian labour force data and China’s fourth quarter GDP which will tell us if the Chinese authorities met their 2024 economic growth target of ‘around 5%’.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets R...

In this week’s episode – the first for 2025 – Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss last week’s November inflation report and why it’s positive news for the Australian inflation story. They also dive into the various spending measures and cover what to look out for in this Thursday’s jobs report.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic &am...

It was a wild week for Australian financial market participants. The much-awaited dovish pivot from the RBA Board arrived on Tuesday with both the statement and post-meeting press conference striking a more optimistic tone on inflation and the outlook for policy. But this renewed market optimism around the prospect of a February rate cut took a hit when the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in data o...

Black Friday sales saw a lift in the CommBank Household Spending Insights in November 2024. The HSI rose by 1.3%/mth led by Household goods. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details in this podcast and discuss the outlook for December and 2025 given the interest rate outlook.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is ap...

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US CPI, Australian labour market data and three central bank interest rate announcements.    ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australi...

A busy week locally with the Q3 24 GDP data. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the weak result and discuss the consumer spending component of the data given its importance. Another busy week looms with the RBA Board meeting and November labour force data.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distribu...

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week, including US labour market data, Australian GDP and political uncertainty in France.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 4...

In this week’s podcast, Senior Economist Stephen Wu and Economist Harry Ottley take a close look at the monthly CPI data from last week, with mostly good news to report. They also talk through the RBA Governor’s speech at the CEDA Annual Conference. They then turn to the week ahead and preview the all important Q3 24 National Accounts.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is appro...

In 2025, mandatory climate reporting will be introduced and phased in over three years, impacting approximately 4,000 – 5,000 of the largest entities in Australia. In this episode, Commonwealth Bank’s sustainability economist, John Oh, sit down with Dennis Voznesenski to breakdown what climate reporting is, why mandatory climate reporting is being introduced, and whether the impact will be positiv...

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the outlook for the major economies in 2025, and expectations for central bank interest rates.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to th...

It’s been three weeks since the re-election of President Donald Trump.  Two key proposed taxation policies have been increased tariffs and increased tax cuts for businesses and consumers that will be likely be implemented in 2025 and 2026, respectively.  To put all of this into context, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to...

In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, the US PCE deflator, the Australian October CPI and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research...

Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu reflect on last week’s RBA Board meeting minutes which created some confusion over the interest rate outlook. In particular the minutes noted the RBA is forward looking but at the same time noting they need to see more than one ‘good CPI print (CPI is a lagging indicator). They also preview the October monthly CPI where an unchanged headline rate of inflation is expect...

In a special podcast episode Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive into how the Australian economy could be impacted by a potential escalation in a trade war. In short the direct impact from US tariffs should be limited, but the indirect impact from a slowdown in China could be larger. While there remains uncertainty over the timing, size and duration of tariffs, there are mitigating factors that...

In this week’s podcast, Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the ongoing capital flows into US dollar assets, the UK CPI and the possibility of FX intervention in Japan.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“t...

Stephen Wu and Belinda Allen deep dive into last week’s labour market and wages data. Softer wages growth but an unchanged unemployment rate hints there is more capacity in the labour market then the data suggests. This week is quiet with some RBA speeches and the Minutes out.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Market...

The CommBank HSI rose by 0.8% in October on stronger spending on Household goods, Recreation and Communications & Digital. Spending has been choppy in recent months with Utilities spend lower on rebates. Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the key insights from the series and what it means for the RBA.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to th...

Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso talk about the key influences impacting on currencies this week including continued news on the US election, Chinese economic stimulus news and Australian and UK labour market data.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of...

In this week’s Podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley from the Aussie economics team break down a wild week in world politics, markets, and the local economic news flow. They discuss if we have changed our view on the Australian economy based on the US election result, as well as the RBA Board’s decision to leave the cash rate on hold last week. Finally, they preview an...

In this week’s episode we discuss the key drivers of the Australian dollar this week including the US election,  RBA and Federal Reserve interest rate announcements, and the expected Chinese economic stimulus announcement.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Ban...