CommBank View: Economics & Markets

Australia’s economy is slowing, but what does the global outlook mean for the path ahead? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about why housing has become the key headwind for the Australian economy. They discuss weaker market momentum, consumer spending, the outlook for interest rates and whether AI investment can help offset softer domestic dema...

Markets began the year expecting US interest rate cuts, so why are they now preparing for hikes instead? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist & Currency Strategist Kristina Clifton about the changing outlook for US monetary policy and what it means for global markets. They discuss why expectations for the Federal Reserve have shifted so dramatically, how stronger US growth an...

Productivity growth has slowed across Australia and much of the developed world, but what will it take to turn the trend around? CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman sits down with Productivity Commission Chair Danielle Wood about the forces shaping productivity growth in Australia and globally. They discuss the causes of the productivity slowdown, the opportunities and challenges presented by art...

With major changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax set to dampen the appeal of residential property for investors, where will capital flow to instead? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Director, Commercial Property Kevin Stanley about why commercial property may become a more attractive option for some investors as a result of the recent tax reforms. They discuss the outlook for rent...

Australia's housing market has remained remarkably resilient, but is the slowdown only just beginning? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Trent Saunders about the latest trends in the housing market and why sentiment is starting to weaken. They discuss softer auction clearance rates, longer selling times and how higher interest rates and recent housing tax reforms are weighing...

Have energy markets become too complacent about the risks of the Iran conflict? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank's Head of Commodities & Sustainability Research Vivek Dhar about why oil and fuel prices have eased despite ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. They discuss the role of global inventories, the risk of another energy price shock, and why the next few weeks could prove c...

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global energy markets, but could agriculture be the next sector caught in the firing line? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Agricultural & Sustainability Economist Dennis Voznesenski about how the conflict in the Middle East is driving up fertiliser and fuel costs for farmers and exposing Australia’s reliance on imported agricultural...

The latest summit between Presidents Trump and Xi maintained the fragile trade truce between the US and China, but how much progress was really made on the issues shaping the global economy? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about what the summit means for the future of US-China relations, including the ongoing disputes over semiconductors, ra...

The Federal Budget attempts to tackle everything from inflation and housing to long-term budget repair, but how much will it really change the outlook for the Australian economy? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman and Head of Market Strategy & Rates Research Adam Donaldson about the key measures in this year’s Budget and whether the Government struck the ri...

The Reserve Bank has delivered another interest rate hike, but is the tightening cycle now nearing its end and how concerned should policymakers be about stagflation risks? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about the RBA’s latest decision to lift the cash rate to 4.35% and why inflation remains the central concern for policymakers. From rising i...

For this special bonus episode, CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman sits down with the Treasurer of Australia, Dr Jim Chalmers. They discuss the long-term direction of the Australian economy in a world shaped by geopolitical tensions, technological change and shifting global dynamics. From the breakdown of the rules-based order to the risks and opportunities of a “churn and change” en...

The US dollar has long dominated global markets, but is that starting to change and what would it mean for the global economy? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist and Currency Strategist Kristina Clifton about what de-dollarisation really means and why it’s back in focus. From rising geopolitical tensions to renewed pressure on the US Federal Reserve under President Trump,...

Australia’s consumer spending has remained surprisingly resilient, but early signs suggest that may not last. Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Ashwin Clarke about how households are responding to rising cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. From higher petrol prices to broader cost-of-living impacts, they unpack how global shocks are filtering through to ev...

Australia’s housing market has remained resilient, but is the strong growth in home prices set to slow as interest rates rise? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Trent Saunders about how the housing market has evolved and what’s driving price growth across the country. From rising interest rates to strong population growth and ongoing supply constraints, they unpack...

The global economy is facing a new wave of uncertainty, but how much will the Middle East conflict slow growth and push interest rates higher? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Foreign Exchange, International & Geoeconomics Joseph Capurso about the impact of the conflict on the global outlook, with growth now expected to come in below trend over the next two years. From rising ener...

The Middle East conflict has entered its second month, but is a resolution any closer or are markets underestimating the risk of a prolonged war? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about why a quick end to the conflict remains unlikely despite ongoing claims of progress. From the resilience of the Iranian regime to the lack of alignment between...

Inflation has become one of the defining challenges for the Australian economy, but why did it take off and has Australia already hit its economic “speed limit”? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about how inflation re-accelerated and why the Reserve Bank of Australia had already begun tightening policy even before the latest escalation in...

The conflict in the Middle East is rattling global energy markets, but how big could the disruption really be? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics Vivek Dhar about risks to global oil and gas supply as tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz. Vivek explains how prolonged conflict could push oil and LNG prices sharply higher, forcing demand dest...

Artificial intelligence is dominating headlines, but is it the next economic bubble or a breakthrough that could power global growth for decades? In this episode of CommBank View: Economics & Markets, host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman about the forces driving the AI boom. From huge investments in data centres to the US-China AI race, hear how AI could deliver a...

Global markets are moving quickly. Policy settings are shifting, and the economic outlook is becoming more complex. Introducing “CommBank View: Economics and Markets”, a new podcast from the CommBank Global Economic and Markets Research team, hosted by Mandy Dury. Each week, CommBank economists will provide in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic forces shaping...

In this week’s podcast, CBA  economists Belinda Allen and Ashwin Clarke discuss a busy week of data and RBA communications. CPI remains too high and capex intentions were upgraded, keeping the RBA on alert. Next stop is December quarter GDP figures.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business divis...

In this week's podcast, CBA economists Belinda Allen, Trent Saunders and Harry Ottley discuss a busy week in labour market data that continues to suggest it remains too tight. They also preview the key January CPI due next week.  Disclaimer:  Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth...

In this week's podcast, CBA economists Ashwin Clarke and Harry Ottley break down a week full of economic data and RBA communication.  ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).   Before listening...

The RBA increased the cash rate to 3.85% this week. In this week's podcast, Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley discuss the why interest rates are heading higher in 2026.    Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 1...

The Q4 25 CPI data was strong in line with CBA expectations. In this podcast, economists Trent Saunders and Harry Ottley dissect the inflation data and explore what it means for the RBA meeting next week.    Disclaimer:   Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 4...