CommBank View: Economics & Markets

In this week’s Aussie Weekly podcast, CBA economists Harry Ottley and Trent Saunders unpack a strong December labour force report and what it signals about tightening conditions in the Australian economy. They also preview next week’s critical Q4 CPI release. The discussion also explores what the latest data means for the RBA’s reaction function, reinforcing the case for a 25bp rate hike at the Fe...

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the outlook for the US dollar, the implications for the Australian dollar and the broader outlook for Australian dollar cross rates.  Disclaimer: Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“th...

In the final podcast of the year, CBA economists Belinda Allen, Ashwin Clarke and Harry Ottley outline why an RBA rate hike in February is likely. They also preview what lies ahead for the Australian economy in 2026.    Disclaimer:   Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Aus...

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including a range of US economic data and central bank policy meetings in the UK, Eurozone and Japan.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 1...

CBA economists Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley dissect the hawkish RBA Board meeting and analyse economic data on the labour market and consumer spending.  ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”)...

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the central bank policy meetings in Australia, the US and Canada.  Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Ban...

September quarter National Accounts data was the key highlight this past week. Annual growth lifted to 2.1% reaching our estimate of Australia’s speed limit. Consumers are spending, businesses are investing and the public sector continues to add to growth. Belinda Allen and Ashwin Clarke unpack the data and discuss the implications for the RBA.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast...

CBA’s international economics team discuss their latest forecasts for the global economy and outlook for central bank interest rates.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this po...

Kristina Clifton and Samara discuss the top influences effecting currency markets this week including an improving global economy, Australian GDP data, and Canadian labour market data.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL...

It was a week full of surprises in Australia. The inaugural monthly CPI data came in stronger than expected for October. Business investment and construction work done blew away forecasts and suggest Q3 GDP will be strong. Trent Saunders and Belinda Allen unpack the data and contemplate what this means for the RBA.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed b...

Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including Australia’s October CPI, the Federal reserve’s Beige book, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy announcement and the UK Autumn Budget.  They also discuss the possibility of FX intervention in Japan. Disclaimer:  Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic &...

Wages data and the RBA minutes were broadly as expected so the focus now turns to next week's inflation data for October. This will be the first release of a full monthly CPI in Australia, bringing it in line with global best practice. In this week's podcast, inflation guru Trent Saunders and economist Harry Ottley discuss the new monthly CPI and what to expect from it and inflation over the next...

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the much-anticipated US payrolls data, Australia’s Wage Price Index and RBA meeting minutes, and the risk of FX intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business d...

In this week's podcast, Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley discuss what was a very strong week of Australian economic data in what is a capacity constrained economy. The highlight was a fall in the unemployment rate to 4.3% pointing to a resilient Aussie labour market.  ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by...

Kristina Clifton and Samara Hammoud discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including China’s monthly data dump for October and labour market data from Australia and the UK.     Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123...

In this episode, CBA economists Harry Ottley and Belinda Allen break down the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep the cash rate on hold at 3.6%. They discuss the RBA’s cautious approach, the balance between inflation pressures and a softening labour market, and what the latest data means for the economic outlook.    ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approv...

It was a busy week of economic news but the September quarter CPI stole the show. The policy relevant trimmed mean lifted by 1%/qtr and 3.0%/yr amongst broad based pricing pressures. In this podcast Belinda Allen and Trent Saunders unpack the result and why it means rate cuts are off the agenda for the RBA.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global...

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the latest US-China trade talks, Australian inflation data, and central bank meetings in the US, Canada, Japan, and the Eurozone.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth...

It was a quiet week locally but next week brings the all important Q3 25 CPI report. In this week's podcast, Economists Trent Saunders and Harry Ottley take a deep-dive on what to expect when the inflation data drops on Wednesday.    Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonw...

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including China’s data dump, Japanese politics, the ongoing US government shutdown and the latest inflation data from around the world.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Ban...

In this week’s podcast CBA economists Belinda Allen and Trent Saunders unpack the shock lift in the unemployment rate and what is means for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Belinda also dives into details of the CommBank Household Spending Insights data for September and Trent runs through some research on the neutral cash rate.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and d...

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including rising US-China trade tensions, FOMC Chair Powell’s remarks on the economy and monetary policy, and the evolving political situation in Japan and France.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business divi...

In this week’s podcast, CBA economists Belinda Allen and Harry Ottley discuss the latest consumer sentiment data, trends in household spending, the outlook for employment and the labour market, recent RBA communications, and key economic developments both in Australia and offshore. ------ DISCLAIMER ------  Important Information    This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic &...

Samara Hammoud and Carol Kong discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including the US government shutdown, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party leadership race results, and Canada’s labour market data.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Au...

In this week’s podcast, Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen unpacks the key takeaways from the September RBA Board meeting and explains why CBA now expects the next rate cut to come in February 2026. Senior Economist Trent Saunders and Economist Harry Ottley also share insights on the latest economic data and news, including household spending trends and the Commonwealth Treasury’s Final Bu...