CommBank View: Economics & Markets

Australia and New Zealand are navigating very different economic cycles, but both face the challenge of persistent inflation and higher interest rates. So what lies ahead for the two economies? Recorded live at the CommBank Global Markets Conference 2026, host Mandy Drury is joined by CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman and ASB Acting Chief Economist Kim Mundy to explore the outlook for growth, i...

Global trade has made economies more connected than ever, but has that interconnectedness also left Australia more vulnerable to disruption? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics Vivek Dhar about why oil prices remain elevated, how Iran's influence over the Strait of Hormuz is shaping the market and what a potential US-Iran deal could mean for the outl...

The RBA and US Federal Reserve are raising interest rates, but could bond yields already be approaching their peak? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Market and Rates Strategy Adam Donaldson and Head of FX, International and Geoeconomics Joseph Capurso about the outlook for interest rates in Australia and the US, and how much further central banks may need to go to bring inflation unde...

Australia’s housing market is losing momentum, so how far could prices fall and what will eventually turn the market around? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Trent Saunders about why housing weakness has spread beyond Sydney and Melbourne, why rental conditions remain so tight and the role interest rate cuts could play in an eventual recovery. They also unpack why CommB...

What’s next for Australian property and what will it take to build the homes and infrastructure the country needs? In this special episode, CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman sits down with Mirvac Group CEO & Managing Director Campbell Hanan to discuss the forces shaping Australia’s property sector, from the housing-market slowdown and supply constraints to the outlook for commercial...

Australia’s economy may be slowing overall, but the picture looks very different depending on where you live. So which states are performing the strongest, and what’s driving the divide? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Economist Harry Ottley about why Queensland has taken the top spot in CommBank’s latest state rankings, the investment boom supporting South Australia and th...

Australia is one of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, so why could the east coast face gas shortages later this decade? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics Vivek Dhar about why east coast gas prices have nearly tripled over the past decade, the infrastructure constraints threatening future supply and what a proposed domestic gas reservation sc...

Bond yields are hitting multi-year highs around the world, so what is the bond market telling us about where interest rates are headed? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Market and Rates Strategy Adam Donaldson about what’s driving the global bond sell-off, why higher yields aren’t simply an inflation story and the structural forces pushing interest rates higher. They unpac...

Inflation has come in softer than expected, but is Australia really getting closer to the end of the fight against rising prices? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about the latest inflation data, why price pressures are expected to ease only gradually and why the RBA isn’t ready to declare victory just yet. They also unpack what could still tri...

Markets are hitting new highs despite war, inflation and higher interest rates, so what’s keeping asset prices rising? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Director, Fixed Income and Interest Rate Strategy Dr Hamid Yahyaei about liquidity, why it matters for financial markets and how an abundance of money and credit can push investors towards assets even when the headlines are bad. They als...

China’s exports are booming while its property market and consumers remain under pressure, so what’s really happening in the world’s second-largest economy? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Economist & Currency Strategist Carol Kong about China’s increasingly two-speed economy and why Beijing is moving away from the stimulus-led growth model of the past. They discuss t...

Australia is attracting billions of dollars in data centre investment, but can the country deliver the infrastructure needed to support the AI boom? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Economist Lucinda Jerogin about Australia's rapidly expanding data centre pipeline, what is driving demand and why the sector is set to become the biggest contributor to business investment growth over the next tw...

The Middle East conflict has entered a new phase, but where could it go from here and what would it mean for the global economy? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about why the Memorandum of Understanding collapsed, the three most likely paths for the conflict and why a diplomatic solution may become more likely over the coming months. Mandy a...

Australia is entering a major defence investment cycle, but what will it mean for the economy and which businesses and industries stand to benefit? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist, Business & Industry Ryan Felsman about why the global peace dividend is over, Australia's growing defence investment, the role of AUKUS and the challenges of building Australia's sovereign defence...

The global economy is entering a new era, but what does that mean for interest rates, inflation and long-term growth? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Market Strategy & Rates Research Adam Donaldson about the long-term forces reshaping interest rates. They discuss the rising neutral interest rate, the impact of AI investment, defence spending and the energy transition, and why central...

Australia’s economy is slowing, but what does the global outlook mean for the path ahead? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about why housing has become the key headwind for the Australian economy. They discuss weaker market momentum, consumer spending, the outlook for interest rates and whether AI investment can help offset softer domestic dema...

Markets began the year expecting US interest rate cuts, so why are they now preparing for hikes instead? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist & Currency Strategist Kristina Clifton about the changing outlook for US monetary policy and what it means for global markets. They discuss why expectations for the Federal Reserve have shifted so dramatically, how stronger US growth an...

Productivity growth has slowed across Australia and much of the developed world, but what will it take to turn the trend around? CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman sits down with Productivity Commission Chair Danielle Wood about the forces shaping productivity growth in Australia and globally. They discuss the causes of the productivity slowdown, the opportunities and challenges presented by art...

With major changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax set to dampen the appeal of residential property for investors, where will capital flow to instead? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Director, Commercial Property Kevin Stanley about why commercial property may become a more attractive option for some investors as a result of the recent tax reforms. They discuss the outlook for rent...

Australia's housing market has remained remarkably resilient, but is the slowdown only just beginning? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Trent Saunders about the latest trends in the housing market and why sentiment is starting to weaken. They discuss softer auction clearance rates, longer selling times and how higher interest rates and recent housing tax reforms are weighing...

Have energy markets become too complacent about the risks of the Iran conflict? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank's Head of Commodities & Sustainability Research Vivek Dhar about why oil and fuel prices have eased despite ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. They discuss the role of global inventories, the risk of another energy price shock, and why the next few weeks could prove c...

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global energy markets, but could agriculture be the next sector caught in the firing line? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Agricultural & Sustainability Economist Dennis Voznesenski about how the conflict in the Middle East is driving up fertiliser and fuel costs for farmers and exposing Australia’s reliance on imported agricultural...

The latest summit between Presidents Trump and Xi maintained the fragile trade truce between the US and China, but how much progress was really made on the issues shaping the global economy? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about what the summit means for the future of US-China relations, including the ongoing disputes over semiconductors, ra...

The Federal Budget attempts to tackle everything from inflation and housing to long-term budget repair, but how much will it really change the outlook for the Australian economy? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman and Head of Market Strategy & Rates Research Adam Donaldson about the key measures in this year’s Budget and whether the Government struck the ri...

The Reserve Bank has delivered another interest rate hike, but is the tightening cycle now nearing its end and how concerned should policymakers be about stagflation risks? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about the RBA’s latest decision to lift the cash rate to 4.35% and why inflation remains the central concern for policymakers. From rising i...