CommBank View: Economics & Markets

In this Podcast, Economists Harry Ottley and Stephen Wu and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss last week’s RBA Minutes and consumer sentiment data and preview a busy week ahead. The data flow this week is headlined by the April monthly CPI indicator and retail trade figures.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Mar...

Last week was action packed for the Aussie economy. In this week’s podcast, Economists Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley sit down to break it all down. They discuss the major takeaways from the 2024/25 Federal Budget and review the softer data on wages and the labour market from last week. They then briefly preview a much quieter upcoming week with the RBA minutes the highlight. Data on consumer sentime...

The 2024/25 Federal Budget was handed down on 14 May 2024. After two consecutive surpluses, a larger than expected profile of budget deficits are forecast for 2024/25 and the years ahead as the Federal government lifts spending on new initiatives while previous revenue gains from a stronger than anticipated economy dry up. In the podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Halmarick, Chief...

The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) fell by 1% in April and annual growth also softened, down to just 2.6%, from 3.9%/yr in March. In this podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist discuss the April results and the new additions to the HSI this month. For April, Food & beverage goods, Hospitality, Recreation and Transport all recorded falls. Wh...

In this podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen sits down with Economist Stephen Wu to discuss a busy last week for the Australian economy and financial markets. They cover last week’s May RBA Board Meeting and the fall in retail trade volumes. They also preview an important week ahead with wages and labour force data due, and the 2024/25 Federal Budget on Tuesday night.   ------ DISCLAIMER ------...

In this edition of the podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist discuss the subdued results of the March CommBank Household Spending Insights series. An early Easter boosted Food & beverage goods spending and higher petrol prices boosted Transport spending. Recreation and Household goods spending was weak. The upcoming Budget and the latest RBA Minutes we...

Media coverage in the past month have highlighted diverging views towards the Government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES).  The NVES will, for the first time in Australia’s history, set tailpipe emission targets for new light vehicles sold in Australia.  Indeed, the NVES will send a strong signal that Australia will prioritise low-emissions vehicles.  But what are the likely short-term imp...

Introduction to mandatory climate reporting in Australia could mean large businesses would need to estimate and report scope 3 emissions.  What are scope 3 emissions? And how do they differ by industry? To answer these questions, John Oh, Sustainable Economist and Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics sit down to discuss their latest note ‘A guidebook to finding hot spots...

February 2024 showed further evidence of a slowdown in consumer spending according to the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. A fall of 0.3%/mth occurred in February, with the peak in the index occurring in November 2023. There was evidence of a Taylor Swift, and other musical acts induced lift in spending with parts of Recreation and Hospitality seeing a strong increase. However other es...

The CommBank Household Spending Insights shows a solid lift of 3.1% in seasonally adjusted terms over January 2024. The last three months of spending has been volatile, due to shifting summer spending patterns. Overall though the HSI shows spending running at 3.6%/yr, which when taking into account inflation and population growth suggests spending is weak on a real per capita basis. Stephen Halmar...

In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong from the International and Sustainable Economics team discuss our updated outlook for the major economies and their central banks.  We now predict the FOMC will pull off a ‘soft landing’ in the US economy.  Japan, Canada, the Eurozone and the UK will skirt close to recession in 2024.  Meanwhile, China is expected to keep growing...

In our latest podcast the Australian Economics team run through a detailed outlook for the Australian economy over 2024. Gareth Aird, Belinda Allen, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss GDP, the RBA, inflation, wages, the labour market, home prices, investment and housing construction. We expect GDP growth to run below trend in 2024 and for the unemployment rate to grind higher. Our base case is th...

The November edition of the CommBank Household Spending Insights shows a solid lift of 1.8% in seasonally adjusted terms. The impact of Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotional activities can be seen through the data with a lift in the Retail category of 3.5% in the month and a 9.3% lift in Household goods. In our latest podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist, and Belinda Allen, Senior Econo...

In our latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist discuss some of the opportunities and challenges for electric vehicle charging in Australia.  The build out of electric vehicle charging looks different within and outside the major capital cities.  Inside the major cities, home and work places will provide significa...

In our latest podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist, and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the October edition of the CommBank Household Spending Insights report. The October results showed a fall of 1.0% in the month and annual growth sitting at 2.0%/yr. Weakness in Recreation, Hospitality and Food & beverage goods led the falls. While Utilities, Transport, Education, Insurance an...

The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) index for September 2023 rose by 0.5%/mth in seasonally adjusted terms, to 137.4.  This was the same monthly increase as the revised outcome for August. Gains in September were led by Hospitality (fast food and restaurants), Food & beverage goods (liquor stores), Transport (higher fuel prices) and Education.  It is worth noting, however, that 5 of...

In this podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the revamped CommBank Household Spending Insights report. The data is now seasonally adjusted and weighted to the ABS census. For August, the Commbank HSI rose by 0.7%/mth to 137.0pts. Gains in August were led by Education (surge in international students), Transport (the higher price of petrol), Recrea...

  In this podcast, we discuss the RBA’s most recent cash rate decision and the latest economic growth figures. The RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.1% at their September Board meeting. This was the third consecutive on-hold decision, although the RBA continued to retain a tightening bias. The RBA seem comfortable that interest rate hikes are working to slow aggregate demand and inflation in t...

The Chinese economy is weak and the government’s policy response has been underwhelming. Despite its reluctance, the government may be forced to unveil a large economic stimulus package in coming months to aid the economy.  In this podcast, we discuss some of the key considerations in China’s fiscal and monetary policy debate.  We also discuss our updated outlook for the Chinese economy.    ------...

The RBA left the cash rate on hold at 4.10% in August, the second consecutive on hold decision. The material lift in interest rates so far, lags in the transmission of monetary policy and uncertainty around the economic outlook drove the on hold decision. There are also growing signs inflation is coming down and consumer demand is moderating. We now expect the RBA to pause for an extended period a...

Electric vehicle (EV) uptake can help decarbonise transport in Australia.  Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainability Economics and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss the financial, emissions and driving-range trade-offs associated with EV purchase and ownership.  They also discuss the range of government incentives available for EV uptake in Australia.   ------ DISCL...

The RBA left the cash rate on hold in July at 4.10% as we had expected. In this podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, run through the three main reasons why the RBA left the cash rate on hold. The material lift in interest rates to date, the deceleration in the pace of the monthly CPI and the opportunity to wait and assess the economy and the outlook fed...

Inflation, while coming down, remains too high for central banks’ comfort.  A recession is likely needed in some economies to bring inflation back to target.  Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainability Economics and Carol Kong, Economist discuss their updated forecasts on the global economy and foreign central banks’ policies.    ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this repo...

The Nature Repair Market Bill was introduced to parliament on the 29 March 2023.  Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainability Economics and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to discuss how the Nature Repair Market offers an alternative to the existing offset markets.  They identify demonstrated-outcome and standardised units of measurement as two important elements required for...

In a special Budget night podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the 2023/24 Budget in detail. Stephen and Belinda discuss what drove the surplus forecast for 2022/23, the first in 15 years and the key policy initiatives to reduce cost of living pressures. A key focus of the Budget was smaller budget deficits and debt projections due to changes in e...