CommBank View: Economics & Markets

In our quarterly update with Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist we discuss how Covid-19 is still impacting particular commodities including cotton and sugar.   We also discuss how supply and demand fundamentals for agri-commodities are tracking for wheat, corn and oilseeds. Importantly, as Tobin discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist this may foreshadow a Turf War in season 2021. Finally Tobin and...

The October labour market data was a clear surprise to the upside. While we have a non-consensus optimistic view on the economic recovery in 2021 and the recovery in the labour market, even this data surprised us. In the podcast Belinda Allen, Kristina Clifton and Nicolas Guesnon discuss how the labour market is performing, what the outlook is and also whether the uneven downturn in the labour mar...

In our latest podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the latest Household Spending Intentions report. The data shows mixed results across the main spending categories – as the effects of the Victorian shutdown lingered. Home buying, Retail and Travel spending intentions tracked sideways in October, while Entertainment spending intentions improved.  H...

The Australian economic recovery looks set to be strong in 2021 and we upgrade our economic forecasts as a result. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen Senior Economist discuss the five green shoots underway in the Australian economy; the path of COVID-19, consumer sentiment, income support, the housing market and domestic tourism and what it means for the ec...

The bounce in global economic activity over Q3 20 was better than expected, but this is not expected to last. However it will mean the total economic contraction in 2020 is less than first feared.  We now expect both the UK and the Eurozone to enter a double dip recession and further stimulus by both central banks. Kim Mundy, Senior Economist discusses the outlook with Belinda Allen, Senior Econom...

As expected the RBA cut interest rates and launched a $A100bn quantitative easing program at its November Board Meeting. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist take you through the details of the decision and why the RBA decided to ease policy now as the economic outlook improves. Gareth and Belinda also discuss what the RBA is trying to achieve and what othe...

COVID-19 case numbers are rising again in the US and Europe.  The new outbreaks lead to questions over whether lockdown measures will be implemented, and the impact on the economy.  Carol Kong from the International Economics team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how this wave is different to the first wave and what the global economy needs to help it recover. Ideally a vaccine and more...

Another extraordinary data release with a 1.6% lift in third quarter headline inflation in Australia. Join Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen Senior Economist as they discuss the trends evident in inflation. COVID-19 has impacted consumer prices including child care, food, rent and household furnishings. While the inflation outlook appears muted there are some risks worth...

In a change of pace in this podcast, Martin Whetton, Head of Fixed Income and Currency Strategy and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the rise of investing based on Environment, Social and Governance factors. In a rising trend, particularly in Europe, more government bonds are being issued in this space based on the demand from investors. COVID-19 appears to have accelerated this trend and M...

The September edition of the Household Spending Intentions report shows Stage 4 lockdowns in Victoria continued to impact the series in September. Overall a bumpy recovery is underway in Australia and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the outlook from here and what role the further easing of fiscal policy and the now expected easing by the RBA will play...

In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist that delays in vote counting in the upcoming US Presidential election are likely because of a large increase in mail-in votes. There is also a high risk the losing candidate disputes the election, further lifting uncertainty. With less than 3 weeks to go, state polls in swing states...

The 2020/21 Budget has detailed an extraordinary deficit of $A213.7bn, which at an estimated 11.0% of GDP is the largest budget deficit since the end of WWII.  In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the budget numbers, the new policy announcements and sense check the economic assumptions. Debt will rise from here but the economic return on th...

It is shaping up to a big Tuesday 6th October with both the 2020/21 Federal Budget handed down as well as the October RBA Board Meeting. In this podcast with Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist they outline the key details to watch in the Budget beyond the headline deficit number. Key policies expected include income tax cuts, a business investment allowan...

In our latest podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics discusses whether a vaccine will “cure” the world economy. Together with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, they detail that vaccine effectiveness, production and distribution are all not guaranteed.  The success of each of these will have consequences for the pace of recovery in the world economy. Just as important will be consum...

Australia’s economic contraction for 2020 is now expected to be less severe than previously thought.  Our shift in view has primarily been driven by an upgrade to our GDP estimate for Q3. Two key pieces of economic data provided the evidence to upgrade – CBA Credit / Debit card spending and hours worked. Both have tracked stronger than originally expected.  The news is encouraging.  In this podcas...

The August edition of the Household Spending Intentions report shows the impact of Vic lockdowns on a number of categories. The improvement seen during July in Home Buying, Retail, Travel, Entertainment and Education spending intentions all stalled in August.  Health and Fitness spending intentions picked up in August, while Motor vehicle spending intentions continued to edge higher. More income s...

The impacts of COVID-19 on the broader economy are well known, but there are also large impacts on the agriculture industry. In this podcast Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how eating at home rather than out is changing demand for particular types of food. Other issues discussed include labour supply, supply chain risks, lost demand and of course the weather...

The decline in dwelling prices nationally since the outbreak of COVID-19 has been smaller than anticipated.  But capital city variation has been wider than expected.  In this podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the drivers of dwelling prices and the recently revised forecasts. A smaller peak to trough fall is now expected and a solid recov...

The US Presidential Election is on 3 November 2020. In this podcast with Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, they discuss how the election outcome is closer than generally believed.  Joe also discusses how the US voting system is different to Australia and why that matters. COVID-19 could also change the vote count at this year’s election. Belinda a...

It was a hotly anticipated set of numbers and in the end the Australian economy recorded a 7% fall in Q2 GDP. A recession is underway but it is a very unique recession as it was manufactured by government policy to control the spread of COVID-19. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the major themes in the data which included a large...

With the Australian economy set to record a deep contraction in 2020 and a slow recovery in 2021, the conversation turns to what other policy options can be employed by both fiscal policy and monetary policy. In this podcast with Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Head of Research and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, two options of ‘unconventional unconventional’ monetary policy are discussed;...

We take a step back from the day to day economic data flow in this podcast and have a think about the medium term economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss five implications: elevated labour market spare capacity and very weak wages growth; record low interest rates; very weak credit growth; reduced net ove...

The 2020 global economic outlook has been downgraded again in 2020 as rising coronavirus cases occur and high frequency data softens. In this podcast Kim Mundy from the International Economics team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the global outlook for 2020 and 2021, where the risks lie, both upside and downside. Kim also shares an outlook snapshot for China, the US, Europe, Japan and...

Prior to the imposition of the stage 4 lock-down in greater Melbourne, the CBA Household Spending Intentions series for July showed solid improvement in the majority of spending categories. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the report and what categories saw gains and losses in the month. With stage 4 lock-down now in place in Metropolitan Melbourne, St...

It was another data heavy week for Australia. The focus was on the labour market. In short, wages growth slowed faster than anticipated, the July labour market data was better at the surface but high frequency data suggests this will not last. Kristina Clifton and Belinda Allen from the Australian Economics team dissect the data and what it means for the outlook as well as discuss what the latest...