CommBank View: Economics & Markets

Australia’s trade relationship with China continues to be in the headlines. It is well known China is Australia’s number one export destination with approximately 40% of Australia’s exports going to China. The next question is, how are they used? In this podcast with Kevin Xie, China Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist a detailed discussion takes place on how China uses Australia’s expor...

It was another extraordinary week for the Australian economy and the challenges of forecasting in a pandemic were on display once again. In this podcast with Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, the RBA’s Statement on Monetary policy and new economic forecasts are discussed and how they differ from the Global Economic & Market Research teams. The stage 4 l...

It was another week for extraordinary economic data in Australia. The June quarter inflation print was the weakest since the Great Depression. But what does this mean for the inflation and wages outlook? Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the inflation data, what income is being seen in CBA bank accounts as well as what we can expect from the Augu...

In our latest Podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics discusses “helicopter money” with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist.  This topic has received more attention in recent months due to some prominent economists and central bankers openly discussing its costs and benefits. In the Podcast they discuss the difference between helicopter money, monetary financing and quantitative easing...

Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the July Economic and Fiscal Update released on 23 July. The size of the deficits and increase in Australian government debt are large and must be placed in context of the economic situation Australia is currently experiencing. Stephen and Belinda also discuss the importance of thinking about the economic return on this...

In this podcast with Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist an update on CBA Household Spending Intentions in June is provided which gives a great benchmark for household behaviour pre recent coronavirus cases in Victoria. Stephen and Belinda also discuss what the weekly card spend data is showing in July so far and an update on what we are seeing in Victoria. RBA G...

In our latest Podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics talks with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist about whether there is light at the end of the tunnel for the global economy. The current global recession is peculiar and so too will be the recovery. The recovery will contain high unemployment, low inflation and low interest rates.  But the recovery could soon run out of puff as pen...

In the second part of the Pathway to Recovery series Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist delve into other reforms that are needed to help the Australian economy recover. The importance of infrastructure development, energy policy and industrial relations are discussed. Bankruptcy’s have fallen sharply during Covid-19 as a temporary change in the regulatory framew...

The return of parts of Victoria to Stage 3 lockdown has led to a revision in Australia’s economic outlook. It also serves as a timely reminder of the risks to the economic outlook. In this podcast, part one of a two part series title Pathway to Recovery, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the current economic outlook as well as the role of monetary polic...

The Covid-19 pandemic is causing a variation in the outlook for each State economy in Australia. In this Podcast, Kristina Clifton and Belinda Allen discuss the major themes impacting each State and what the outlook is. Victoria appears to be lagging and is most at risk given the recent lift in coronavirus numbers as well as exposure to foreign students. Western Australia and Queensland are helped...

The Covid-19 pandemic has revived long standing warnings about the impending demise of the Eurozone. Elias Haddad, Senior Strategist based in London and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss whether the Eurozone will come out of this crisis with deeper ties. The other big uncertainty hanging over the European continent is the state of the post-Brexit trade negotiations. Discussions around future...

The Australian economy is encountering a deep economic contraction. However the situation the Australian economy finds itself in now, is better than the one first feared back in March 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic was unfolding. In this podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the revised Australian economic outlook and the seven green shoot...

The International Monetary Fund downgraded its global growth outlook in June, but how does it compare to our outlook? Kim Mundy from the International Economic team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the IMF downgrade as well as the outlook for the following economies; the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, China and New Zealand and where the risks lie to the outlook. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Befor...

As we look to a recovery in the Australian economy each industry will face different hurdles in its performance. Border closures, social distancing requirements, changing work patterns and confidence levels are all drivers to watch. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the outlook for construction, accommodation & food services...

Coronavirus case numbers are rising again in the US, leading to concerns over a double dip recession. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how a second wave of coronavirus could impact the US economy. They use other countries like Sweden and China to discuss the outlook as well as how the US economy is currently performing. ---...

The patterns of spending in the Australian economy continue to be impacted by the policies to slow the spread of Covid-19 – with some big changes now evident. This podcast features Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic & Markets Research and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discussing the May edition of the HSI and interesting developments in Home Buying and Retail spending...

Covid-19 and widespread border closures has dramatically reduced international tourism. In this podcast, Kim Mundy from the International Economics team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the impact from international tourism on major countries including Australia, NZ, UK and the US. Some scenarios on when borders are reopened are also detailed and how this will impact on economic growth....

Australia’s GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2020 as drought, bushfires and Covid-19 saw a fall in private demand. While public spending is at its highest share of the economy on record. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how the Australian economy is tracking, what we can expect in Q2 and the rest of 2020. The RBA also left the cash rate on hold in J...

The global economy contracted sharply in April and there are some signs that was the worst point. A recovery will come, but there are question marks over the pace of recovery. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss if there are green shoots in the global economy as well as what pace the recovery will take. Factors such as reshori...

In this podcast with Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, we delve into insights provided by income data flowing into CBA bank accounts. The data shows the large positive shock underway from government benefits (JobSeeker and other support payments) is more than offsetting a loss from wages and salaries. While this is positive now and will help support spe...

Australia’s economy will face a deep recession in the June quarter. We expect each state to experience a downturn and then recovery, but the pace of each will differ between states. Kristina Clifton, Senior Economist shares her thoughts on how the pace of easing of restrictions, foreign student share, migration  numbers and tourism of exposure will all impact growth. Head of International Economic...

A quirk of the timing of Australia’s economic downturn could see one single quarter of contraction in economic activity. This would mean Australia could avoid a ‘technical’ definition of a recession. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, explain why this is an outdated definition and whichever way the data lands over coming months Australia will be in recession. T...

The RBA released updated economic forecasts on 8th May. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the details and also how they differ to the Global Economic & Markets Research teams economic forecasts. April labour market data is due 14th May and the news will be sobering. This podcasts discusses the outlook for the labour market and how internal CBA hi...

The Australian economy is set to record a sharp contraction in economic growth in 2020. We expect a slower recovery than the RBA in 2021. We will find out more detail this week on the RBA’s forecasts in the quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy. In this podcast between Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist a number of different policy options are discussed as to w...

In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics discuss how the expected coronavirus recession will differ to your typical recession experienced both in Australia and globally. We discuss how economic activity, unemployment and inflation is expected to perform versus a normal recession. The short answer is it will be deeper, take longer to recove...