CommBank View: Economics & Markets

We have lowered our Australian unemployment rate forecast to 5% at end 2021. Listen to Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how the forward looking indicators of labour demand prompted the updated view. As a result wages growth has been revised up, as has underlying inflation. Gareth also provides the latest thinking on the RBA’s policy suite and wh...

A big question for this year is how fast will the US economy grow? In this podcast with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Kim Mundy, Senior Economist & Currency Strategist discuss three key growth elements and their potential to overheat the US economy in 2021; The American Rescue Plan Act, the vaccination roll-out and the infrastructure plan. Importantly the outlook for the US economy will be c...

There is an emerging theory that another commodities super-cycle is underway. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discusses the hypothesis with Vivek Dhar, Mining and Commodities Strategist. Three factors are discussed; the transition to a decarbonised economy, supply constraints & investment spend and reflation. Altogether Vivek thinks the rise in commodity prices over the last year i...

In a change of pace this week we discuss feedback from recent trips around Australia visiting corporate clients. Both Martin Whetton, Head of Fixed Income & Currency Strategy and Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics have travelled to different parts of Australia including WA, Queensland and South Australia.  They have also spoken to clients in Victoria and NSW. The feedback has been overwhelm...

In our latest podcast, we continue with our recent thematic research on environmental issues. Given the current global focus on net zero carbon emission targets, we take a step back and discuss how to measure an economy’s carbon footprint and how carbon is produced and consumed. Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen then discuss Australia’s carbon footprint, what it mea...

In a step away from the economy, this podcast delves into what the end of LIBOR means for financial markets. Martin Whetton, Head of Fixed Income & Currency Strategy, discusses with Belinda Allen Senior Economist what LIBOR is and why it is ending. For any issuers or borrowers in debt markets this is an important topic to be aware of and Martin discusses what LIBOR will be replaced with, when and...

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for February 2021 showed mixed results across the seven spending categories, but overall continued to point to ongoing improvement in household spending in the Australian economy. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the major results with a focus on Home Buying, Health & fitness, Entertainment and...

We cover two different issues in our latest podcast between Belinda Allen and Nic Guesnon from the Australian Economics team. Firstly the impact of the end of JobKeeper is discussed and how this will impact the labour market. We expect around 110k jobs could be lost by the end of the wage subsidy and a number of key industries are likely to wear the brunt. Secondly we discuss the performance of th...

Recent financial market activity, particularly the bond market would suggest that lifts in short term rates are coming down the pipeline by central banks. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss what central bankers are focussed on when looking at tightening monetary policy. A focus on actual inflation rather than expected inflati...

In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist unpack both the Q4 20 GDP result as well as the RBA March Board meeting.  The Australian economy has had a V-shaped economic recovery and we remain optimistic on the outlook for 2021. The RBA is expected to continue with its very easy monetary policy stance, albeit the bond market is pricing in the chance...

In this podcast Kim Mundy, Senior Economist - International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the upgraded forecasts for global economic growth in 2021 and 2022. There are three main reasons for the improved outlook: vaccinated populations, large savings buffers and fiscal stimulus. The path of the virus does remain front and centre. Kim also provides the growth outlook for the...

In this podcast with Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist extend on our research on the circular economy by analysing how circular the Australian economy is. We estimate that due to Australia’s relatively high extraction of resources and materials, Australia is at a higher risk from disruption caused by a transition to a circular economy. This could h...

In our quarterly update with Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist we discuss the improving macroeconomic environment and the emerging topic of interest, inflation. Tobin discusses if there are any signs of inflation in the agriculture space and what that might mean. Tobin and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist also provide an update on the turf war and if we are likely to see any developments in 2021. Tobin al...

Continuing with our recent focus on sustainable economic growth, this podcast with Carol Kong from our International Economics & Currency Strategy team and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist delves into recent fiscal stimulus plans and how “green” these are. While carbon emissions did drop during 2020 and some recovery plans have been greener than others, more can be done and there are benefits both...

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for January 2021 showed relatively widespread improvement in spending intentions at the start of the year – despite some Covid-19 related lockdowns in various parts of the country. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results for January which show Home Buying, Travel, Health & fitness, Enterta...

Momentum in the Australian property market has surged and leading indicators point to strong price rises. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how the property market has performed recently and how new lending, interest rates and other indicators of momentum point to strong price rises in 2021 and 2022. Risks remain, both to the upsi...

US President Joe Biden cemented his commitment to tackling the climate emergency on his first day in office.  In this podcast Kim Mundy, Senior International Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, discuss the core elements of President Biden’s climate policy. His policies are ambitious, with a global, not just a US focus.  Many economies, including Australia, could be impacted. For Austral...

Hydrogen has gathered significant attention lately as the focus shifts to more sustainable economic growth and decarbonising economies. In this podcast, Vivek Dhar, Mining and Energy Commodities Strategist discusses with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist why hydrogen is getting more attention, who will use it and what the demand prospects are like. Vivek also discusses if it is economical to produce...

How to make economic growth more sustainable is increasingly in focus.  Environment, Social and Governance factors are becoming more integrated into the investment landscape.  In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the traditional model of economic growth, the linear model and introduce the Circular Economy and the four Rs, reduc...

The base case remains for low inflation in 2021 underpinned by soft wages growth, low inflation expectations and a firmer Australian Dollar. However large fiscal stimulus leading to strong income growth has raised the prospect of some demand pull inflation. In this podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics discuss the case for both low inflation and hig...

In our first podcast for 2021, Kim Mundy and Belinda Allen delve in to the December edition of the Household Spending Intention (HSI) series. The last edition for 2020 showed that at the end of last year there was a very welcome improvement in spending intentions for Travel, Health & Fitness, Entertainment and Motor Vehicles. Home Buying and Retail spending intentions were flat on the month, follo...

In our latest podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the November edition of the Household Spending Intentions report. The data showed a solid improvement in Home Buying and Retail spending intentions – as the Australian economy continues its recovery. Entertainment and Motor Vehicle spending intentions were both modestly higher in November.  Travel...

The public sector infrastructure pipeline has risen significantly. This will help transition the Australian economy away from income support measures and contribute significantly to Australia’s economic growth in 2021. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Kristina Clifton and Nicolas Guesnon discuss the importance of infrastructure and then delve into how the various state economies are performing in 20...

Australia’s economic recovery commenced in Q3 20 with a lift in GDP of 3.3%/qtr. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the result and discuss the uneven nature of the various state economies as well as how household spending, business investment, residential construction and public spending impacted the result. Importantly the trend...

It has been over three weeks since the US election and the official transition from President Trump to President-elect Biden is underway. The outlook for the US economy under a Biden Administration will largely depend on the makeup of the US Congress, which is still being decided. If the Republicans regain control of the Senate this will limit the amount of policy change for Biden. At this stage w...