CommBank View: Economics & Markets

The delta outbreak in NSW, Vic and the ACT and the resultant lockdowns have dramatically impacted the economic landscape for each state economy. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics speaks with Belinda Allen, Senior Economist and Stephen Wu, Economist about how each state economy is tracking on the COVID front. In particular they dive into the detail on consumer spending, hous...

The Q2 21 National Accounts figures were largely academic given the evolving COVID-19 outbreak courtesy of the delta strain. The Australian economy grew in the second quarter, but lockdowns impacting more than 50% of the population will see growth record a large fall in the third quarter. Vaccination rates are rising, but so are case numbers which means that when restrictions are eased, Australia...

Our latest podcast aims to answer the question on everyone lips – will lockdowns be necessary in 2022? Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how vaccination rates and herd immunity are tracking in various advanced economies and the need for booster shots. Lockdowns likely will be less prevalent in 2022, though could still be used, and should be...

Our latest podcast takes a step away from what is happening in Australia and focuses on the Chinese economy. China experienced an outbreak of the delta variant in July and that has led to social distancing and mobility restrictions. As a result high frequency data has slowed, particularly retail spending. In this podcast Belinda Allen, Senior Economist speaks to our Senior Asia Economist, Kevin Xi...

Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how an improvement in economic conditions in July 2020 and the lockdowns this year have dramatically impacted the readings for the Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions in July 2021. The spread of the delta variant of the COVID-19 virus has shifted the near term economic outlook to the negative and this will c...

Globally, action to limit climate change is growing.  One example is the fact that the number of greenhouse gas pricing initiatives have jumped since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.  In our latest podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Senior Economist Kim Mundy talk about why and how countries are pricing emissions.  Although narrow scopes and low prices have limited emissions reduct...

The RBA has been the centre of attention this week. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the latest Board Meeting and updated forecasts. In short the RBA remain upbeat on the medium term outlook for the Australian economy and we agree. However the RBA appears too optimistic in the near term given the lockdown in Greater Sydney is set...

The extended lockdown in Greater Sydney will change the course of the Australian economy over coming months. Prior to this, the Australian economy was set to record a strong recovery and the unemployment rate was on track to move well below 5% by year end. However the recent COVID-19 outbreak in Greater Sydney, and it being the delta variant and the ensuing strict lockdown measures, has led us to...

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for June 2021 continued to be significantly affected by base effects when compared to June last year – with declines in spending intentions for Home buying, Retail, Travel, Entertainment and Motor vehicles.  Both Health & fitness and Education spending intentions were higher. In this podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda...

The Australian employment report for June was another strong print, with the unemployment rate falling to a decade low of 4.9%. But the near term economic outlook has shifted with Greater Sydney entering its fourth week of lockdown and another snap lockdown in Victoria.  In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss what the lockdown may mean...

The highly anticipated July policy decisions by the RBA did not disappoint.  In this podcast Gareth Aird. Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the two key decisions made by the RBA; sticking with the April 24 bond and tapering its bond purchase program as well as the modification of the forward guidance on the cash rate. The RBA remains dovish on the outlook for...

We have upgraded our views for global economic growth to 6.8% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. In this podcast with Kim Mundy, Senior Economist & Currency Strategist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the upgrade and themes behind it including the vaccine roll out and a lift in the size of the government sector in driving the recovery. Financial markets have drawn a straight line from economic r...

The Australian labour market has tightened at a phenomenal pace and underutilisation in May was at its lowest since early 2013. The forward looking indicators of labour demand are very strong yet labour supply is constrained, which means the labour market will continue to tighten very quickly and wages growth will accelerate.  We expect the RBA to begin normalising monetary policy in late 2022 and...

The May labour market report was very strong on all accounts. Employment rose by 115k, the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% and the participation rate lifted. Underemployment fell further and suggests the labour market is tightening quickly. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the labour market report and the outlook for employment. G...

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for May 2021 showed the generally positive consumer environment continued in the month, when comparing the spending categories relative to May last year.  Base effects continue to impact the data as the slow reopening of the economy began a year ago. In this podcast Kim Mundy, Senior International Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Econom...

Inflation and the prospects of rising inflation have been the hot topic of 2021. In this podcast Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the arguments for an increase in inflation large enough to cause central banks to tighten monetary policy. Loose fiscal policy, immigration and tourism, accumulated household savings, rising commodity prices, su...

The Q1 21 GDP figures were just released.  They showed that the economic recovery continued strongly over early 2021.  GDP is now about 0.8% above where it was tracking pre-COVID-19.  Strong commodity prices are also giving the economy a boost and nominal GDP rose by 3.5% in the quarter.  In the podcast Kristina Clifton and Belinda Allen, both Senior Economists discuss the GDP results. They also t...

In our regular quarterly podcast with Tobin Gorey, Ag Strategist topics such as supply constraints, rising farm prices in Australia and seasonal labour issues are all discussed. Tobin details how supply constrains have been building in recent seasons and when combined with rising demand is creating the ‘Turf War’ and rising prices. With recent residential property price rises, Tobin, with Belinda...

The inflation outlook is a key focus for markets and economists right now. The economic data released in Australia over the past week largely pertained to the labour market which feeds into the inflation debate. The slew of data was all supportive of our view that wages growth and inflation outcomes will exceed the RBA’s forecasts over the next few years. In this podcast Gareth Aird, Head of Austr...

The April edition of the Household Spending Intentions report shows strong improvement across all spending categories relative to April last year.  This comes as no surprise, given April 2020 was the low point for spending at the start of the Covid-19 lockdowns. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss how comparing April 2021 outcomes to 2019 helps to see som...

In our special Budget 2021/22 edition of the podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dissect the numbers, key policies and economic forecasts. The Australian economy is now growing strongly and the Budget position improved in 2020/21. However the deficit for 2021/22 was larger than expected at $A106.6bn, which was little changed from the MYEFO estimate of $A1...

It has been a big week for the RBA with the May Board meeting and the Statement on Monetary Policy. The RBA will decide on its 3-year yield target and the third round of bond purchases in July. In the meantime the RBA significantly upgraded their assessment of the Australian economic outlook, yet forecasts of inflation and wages growth remain low. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Beli...

Strongly rising dwelling prices have raised the possibility of macro prudential policies being reintroduced. In this podcast Kristina Clifton and Belinda Allen from the Australian Economics team discuss who has responsibility to monitor developments in the housing market in terms of financial stability. They also discuss what the key metrics are to watch including loan to value ratios, interest on...

Our latest podcast covers a number of key thematics in markets in 2021: the outlook for the US economy, decarbonisation and greening of the global economy and what these means for commodities. Joseph Capurso, Head of International Economics and Vivek Dhar, Mining and Energy Commodities Strategist speak with Belinda Allen to detail President Biden’s latest infrastructure and jobs plan and discuss w...

The Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions series for March 2021 showed improvement across five of the seven spending categories.  In this podcast Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen discuss how some of the annual percentage changes are now being distorted by the impact on spending from the onset of the Covid-19 restrictions of a year ago. March 2021 saw strong gains in s...