RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know: • First, our tiers of fear, sentiment, and valuation analysis suggest that the stock market could stabilize soon, even if Thursday’s close doesn’t turn out to be the low. But thinking about the next few months and into early next year, it’s important to remember that fundamentals still matter as our valuation and sentiment work are not “washed out.” • Second, we li...

This week, we have a special edition in which we highlight some new analysis that we've collaborated on with some of our colleagues. You’ll be hearing from Simon Simoski from my team, along with Sara Mahaffy (RBC Canadian Equity and Sustainability Strategist) and Chris Louney (RBC Commodity Strategist). They’ll be discussing their big findings for global asset classes, within US and non-US equitie...

The big things you need to know: First, we are staying on the sidelines with Tech following our mid October downgrade, while also reiterating our overweight on Health Care. Second, we add to our thoughts on the midterms, highlighting how recent developments impact our view of the set up, and what we’ve learned from our ongoing review of the big issues in close races that could be relevant to secto...

The big things you need to know: First, we review our thoughts on the US midterm elections, where we think it makes sense to be prepared for all outcomes. We run through our thoughts on the implications of each outcome for the US equity market based on the historical playbook and our analyst survey work, and also review our analysis of what stock market relevant issues have been in focus in battle...

The big things you need to know: First, 3Q26 reporting season is off to a slightly soft start on the stats, with company commentary generally still highlighting resilience in the economy and consumers and tailwinds from AI, with some caveats, while giving investors plenty to think about in terms of risks that may lie ahead. Second, recurring topics in conversations last week with US investors incl...

The big things you need to know: First, we enter 3Q26 reporting season seeing risks in both directions. Second, the investors we met with in Canada last week were best described as cautiously optimistic, with earnings, midterms, and confusion over recent resiliency in the equity market all top of mind. Third, other things that jump out this week include the recent surge in US performance relative...

The big things you need to know: First, our analysts are moderately constructive across the globe, though we did detect a bit more optimism outside of the US. Second, Energy, Health Care, and Technology stand out at the global sector level for capturing some of the most optimistic views on all of our main questions. Third, within the US, muted midterm views remain in place at the broader stock mar...

The big things you need to know: First, Friday’s weaker than expected jobs report, which was still viewed as healthy by our economists, left us feeling incrementally better about Small Cap. Second, other things that jump out in our updates this week include the stall in stock market optimism among consumers in the latest Conference Board survey, recent deterioration in our earnings yield gap model...

The big things you need to know: First, we reviewed the drawdowns in the S&P 500 of 11% or more dating back to 1956, an exercise that helps to clarify why US equities have been resilient recently (in particular, strong earnings and capex dynamics). Second, other things that jump out in our updates include the link between crude oil and 10-year yields, the renewed leadership of the US and mega...

The big things you need to know: First, our review of S&P 500 performance during the Fed hiking cycles that have occurred since the mid 1990s reminded us that the stock market tends to stumble at lift off, with a median initial drop of 9.6% (ex 2022, which was an extreme outlier). This keeps us vigilant for a near-term tier 1/garden variety pullback of 5-10% in the S&P 500. Second, other t...

The big things you need to know: • First, with the US summer ending and fall getting underway, we refresh our thoughts on the US equity market outlook in terms of both the near term (where we think risks of a tier 1 / garden-variety pullback have grown) and the longer term (where we remain constructive and reiterate our 12-month S&P 500 price target of 8,150, noting that upside risk exists if...

The big things you need to know: First, we took a look back at equity market and sector performance in 2H18 and 2H22, around the last two midterm elections. Conditions were choppy with two distinct drawdowns interrupted by a meaningful rally. Consumer Staples and Health Care outperformed during the drawdowns while Financials, Industrials, and Materials outperformed in the rebounds. Second, other t...

The big things you need to know: First, takeaways from last week’s meetings with Australia-based investors, in which our conversations focused on inflation / interest rates / the Fed, the US midterm elections, and the rotation trade. Second, key big-picture themes in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls included a cautiously optimistic tone among companies, consumer descriptions that seemed a li...

The big things you need to know: First, valuation opportunity is opening up in the US equity market from a variety of perspectives. Second, in the aftermath of Wednesday’s Fed meeting, we highlight how the stock market tends to experience choppy performance in the first few months under a new Fed Chair. Third, other things that jump out in our updates this week include the return of high EPS quali...

The big things you need to know: First, the stats for 2Q26 reporting season have continued to come in mixed, arguing for selectivity rather than a leadership rotation, in our view. Second, last week’s earnings commentary from S&P 500 companies reiterated the themes of resiliency and AI tailwinds, but didn’t give us much insight on how to think about recent war developments. Third, we review ho...

The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, the early stats from 2Q26 reporting season look a little mixed as reporting season kicks into high gear. Second, early earnings commentary from the companies that reported over the past week highlights a cautiously optimistic tone, consumer resiliency, and complicated AI impacts. Third, other things that jumped out in our lat...

The big things you need to know: First, we are making several changes to our S&P 500 sector views with upgrades to Tech to overweight and Consumer Discretionary to market weight, alongside downgrades of Communication Services to market weight and Utilities to underweight. Second, the expected growth rate for 2Q26 S&P 500 EPS has continued to drift up ahead of reporting season, but trends i...

The big things you need to know: First, across the globe our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months and see attractive valuations in the industries they cover. Second, Europe and Canada captured the most optimistic performance outlooks among our four coverage regions, but the US was not far behind. Third, our Canadian and US analysts expressed a favorable view of their...

The big things you need to know: First, we are lifting our 12-month S&P 500 price target to 8,150 from 7,900. We also think the recent outperformance of non-US developed markets and value could last a bit longer but ultimately expect equity market leadership to return to the US and big cap growth after the recent valuation problem is resolved. Second, we run through our thoughts on the upcomin...

Two big things you need to know: First, forward P/Es have generally been de-frothed, but haven’t looked deeply compelling for the major US indices. Second, the valuation case for the broadening trade still has some room (Small Caps, certain cyclical sectors, non-US developed market equities), but requires close monitoring.

It’s been a year, and it’s only June. We built a framework to help investors navigate the fear and stuck with our constructive longer-term view. If you’ve found our research, and this podcast, helpful, we’d appreciate your vote in the Extel (formerly II) All America Research survey. Voting is open and closes this Friday, June 12th – please cast your vote now. Here is a one-minute video explaining...

The big things you need to know: First, lingering concerns about interest rates and the Fed flared up on Friday after a surprisingly strong NFP report. We run through our thoughts on why this hit the Nasdaq so hard and note that risk of a tier 1 / garden variety pullback (5-10% from peak) has risen in the near term. Second, other things that jump out include the recent drop in bitcoin, which suppo...

RBC’s Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This is a special edition of the podcast recorded live from the RBC Global Energy Power and Infrastructure Conference in New York on June 3rd, 2026. Lori teamed up with Callie Simpkins (Managing Director on RBCCM’s Cross Asset...

The big things you need to know: First, earnings sentiment (the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions) is now improving broadly within the equity market, which we think opens the door for a short-term pause in mega cap Growth leadership within the US and US leadership within global developed markets equities. Second, the Growth/Value trade within Large Cap has turned choppy again, which we think m...

The big things you need to know: First, we think the recent pick up in 10-year yields raises the risk of a tier 1 (5-10%) pullback in the S&P 500 in the short-term, but does not alter our longer-term constructive view on the S&P 500. Second, it was business as usual at the RBC Health Care conference last week in terms of company commentary. Third, other things that jump out from our latest...