RBC's Markets in Motion

The big things you need to know: First, reporting season stats have come in “slightly squishy” in our view, suggesting to us that the choppy price action in the S&P 500 of late has been about more than geopolitical concerns. Second, what we read in earnings call transcripts this past week continues to suggest that the macro backdrop is mixed, though we are not seeing any indications of major p...

The big things you need to know: First, the various earnings stats we track point to a sleepy start to reporting season, suggesting to us that geopolitics hasn’t been the only thing contributing to the US equity market’s recent gyrations. These stats also highlight how the mega cap growth trade has seen its dominance on the earnings front erode in some ways, helping fuel the rotation trade to Valu...

The big things you need to know: First, our thoughts on earnings heading into 4Q25 reporting season – questions we think need answering and stats we’re watching. Second, other updates include our thoughts on implications in house views on the Fed for our own US equity market outlook, why we think last week’s economic data releases support the strong start to the year in US equities, why we think S...

The big things you need to know: First, after updating our models for end of year, we are reiterating our 7,750 12-month S&P 500 price target, noting that the signal from our sentiment model deteriorated since our last update in early December while the signal from our GDP model strengthened. Second, a few things that jumped out in our other updates included the recent divergence in the size a...

The big things you need to know: First, we are upgrading S&P 500 Health Care to overweight from market weight. Second, we are upgrading S&P 500 Communication Services to overweight from market weight. Third, our other S&P 500 recommendations are unchanged. We remain overweight Financials and Materials, underweight Consumer Discretionary, and market weight all other sectors. Among our m...

The big things you need to know: First, several things that US equity markets have been linked to (breadth, bitcoin, private market fears, Fed cut expectations, consumer sentiment) have gotten better in recent updates. Second, a few signals from our year-ahead outlook analysis have shifted over the past week. Third, there have been a few interesting twists and turns in positioning since Thanksgivi...

The big things you need to know: First, our 12-month-forward price target for the S&P 500 is 7,750, approximately the median and average of five different models that we use, which focus on sentiment, valuation, the appeal of stocks relative to bonds, the economic outlook, and monetary policy. Second, some of the key headwinds / downside risks and tailwinds / upside risks we’re monitoring incl...

The big things you need to know: First, with the S&P 500 having finally entered what we consider to be tier 1 / garden-variety-pullback territory on Thursday, we review what we’re watching to help us gauge if / when the pullback has run its course. Second, with old leadership within US equities under pressure, we review which trades are working best right now (or might be starting to work) amo...

The big things you need to know: First, earnings sentiment staged a partial comeback last week as the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500 moved up again slightly vs. the prior week but remained below its August high. Second, we run through the latest big picture takeaways from S&P 500 earnings calls. Third, other things on our mind include our work the valuation profile o...

The big things you need to know: First, the percent of S&P 500 companies beating consensus EPS forecasts remains well above 2Q25 levels despite slipping a little last week. Meanwhile, the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions improved slightly but remains well below the high of the last reporting season. Second, macro commentary in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls remained mixed and vari...

The big things you need to know: First, 3Q25 reporting season has gotten off to a strong start on beat rates for the major indices, but we are continuing to see deterioration in the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, the biggest market cap names in those indices, and the rest of both indices when their top weights are excluded – something we continue to se...

The big things you need to know: First, solid commentary from the S&P 500 Financials that reported last week helped get 3Q25 reporting season off to a good start, though it was overshadowed by private credit concerns. Second, we reviewed stock market performance in early 2023 around the regional banking crisis as a starting point for thinking about risks to the broader US equity market. Third,...

The big things you need to know: First, earnings sentiment has been fading for the broader US equity market and is at a critical juncture for the biggest market cap names and Tech sector within the S&P 500. Second, macro signals were mixed from the S&P 500 companies that reported over the past few weeks. Third, our thoughts on Friday’s weakness in the S&P 500.

The big things you need to know: First, across all industries and regions, our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months. Second, at the global sector level our analysts have the most positive performance outlooks for REITs, Materials and Financials. Third, our analysts were slightly less optimistic on forward performance for Europe/UK than other regions. Fourth, our analy...

The big things you need to know: First, many of the US equity investors we met with last week were frustrated and wary. Second, other things that jump out in our work include a speech by the USTR to the financial community in NYC last week, the recent fade in the broadening trade and Small Cap leadership, the continued easing in earnings sentiment, and expectations around the shutdown’s duration i...

The big things you need to know: First, we review what clients were most interested in talking about on our trip to the UK last week, which included differences between US and UK investor sentiment, valuations, geographical funds flows, and sectors. Second, we recap the macro tidbits we picked up from last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls (where the auto-related names had a negative tone), our ta...

The big things you need to know: • First, weakness in Homebuilders doesn’t bode well for the recent outperformance of Small Caps. • Second, we’ve continued to see some slippage in earnings sentiment (the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions) for the S&P 500, which has been driven by companies outside of the biggest market cap names. • Third, bulls picked up sharply in the AAII survey last wee...

The big thing you need to know: The big thing you need to know: We are introducing preliminary forecasts for the S&P 500 for 2026 of 7,100 (a 2H26 price target) and $297 (full-year 2026 S&P 500 EPS). We think they should be viewed as a very early indication of how our models are tracking at the moment.

RBC’s   Markets in Motion   is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. The big things you need to know: First, we see Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report as having added some additional uncertainty to the US equity market outlook at a time when we’ve been on guard for choppines...

The big things you need to know: First, 2Q earnings season wrapped up with downward pressure on 2026 sector EPS forecasts & Small Cap operating margin forecasts. Second, following Friday’s news that the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit had ruled against the reciprocal tariffs, we think corporate uncertainty around tariffs will remain elevated.

The big things you need to know: First, a better longer-term EPS outlook and more resilient operating margin forecasts help explain the recent outperformance of mega cap growth stocks and growth-oriented sectors Second, Small Caps recently saw a brief/mild outperformance pop on mounting Fed cut optimism, but we remain neutral on Small Caps given elevated valuations and below-average consensus GDP...

The big thing you need to know: First, with reporting season starting to wind down, Health Care and Tech stand out positively on a few of our earnings-related sector stats. Second, we recap what we read in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls. The overall tone improved vs. the prior week, but we still detected plenty of uncertainty as reporting season winds down particularly on demand, the consu...

The big thing you need to know: Our overall impression from 2Q25 reporting season is that companies are managing through tariffs fairly well so far, but it’s still too early to assume tariffs won’t generate inflation pressures. We run through four takeaways on what we learned in 2Q25 reporting season last week regarding the overall tone, the state of demand, the consumer, and the timing of tariff...

The big things you need to know: First, we run through our first impressions from week 1 of 2Q25 reporting season in terms of both the stats and company commentary. Out of the gate, our impression is that it’s been fine but not fabulous. Second, we review what else jumps out to us on our high frequency indicators which includes the underperformance of quality factors, average levels of bullishness...

The big things you need to know: First, we are lifting our year-end 2025 S&P 500 price target to 6,250, essentially taking our price target back to where it was in mid-March. Second, there is no change to our 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast of $258, which is slightly below consensus. We also review what we’ve learned from the early reporters, which makes us think it’s too early to stop worrying...