This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

As member states gathered for the NATO conference in Ankara this week, leaders faced a series of questions over the future of the security alliance. As President Trump flew into Turkey criticising allies over spending commitments and their support in the Iran conflict, could they rely on the US commitment to NATO any longer?  And with Russia’s war on Ukraine ongoing, and the looming threat th...

The United States’ war with Iran is a reminder that it’s easier to start a war than to end it. Many other lessons from the conflict are also being analysed right now, from how relatively low-cost weapons change the economics of war, to how even a far-away war can affect all of us in our daily lives. Dr Neda Bolourchi, Middle East historian and nonresident fellow with the Institute for Global Affai...

Ukrainian drone swarms have hit targets in major Russian cities, while disrupting its military assets and vital oil supplies. Could this be a turning point in the war more than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion began?  Gavin Esler is joined by John Lough, senior research fellow at the New Eurasia Strategies Centre and associate fellow in the Russia Eurasia programme at Chatham House. •...

News of the framework for a peace deal between Iran and the United States - if it holds - might be the beginning of the end of a conflict that has unsettled not just the Middle East and the world economy but also Washington’s relationships with its allies.  Even if President Trump claims some kind of victory in Iran - with stories about arguments and possible rifts between Trump and Israel’s Prime...

Germany is rearming as the Russian threat looms over Europe and much of the continent’s security rests on its success. Backed by an emergency ‘Zeitenwende’ fund and an ever-expanding defence budget, Germany is undertaking a profound military transformation with the aim of becoming Europe’s strongest conventional army. What does this mean more broadly? And where do they need to focus? Jörg Lau, for...

Beyond the pomp and pageantry of Vladimir Putin’s Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, what do Russia and China need from each other? And how strong is their relationship? Plus, coming hot on the heels of Donald Trump’s own Beijing visit, what does it mean for the geopolitical balance in an era of great power competition? Gavin Esler joins Joseph Webster, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and edito...

In a new book, Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations Mark Leonard argues that we have entered an age of ‘un-order’ – when the rules and norms of the international order no longer hold sway. Can democratic leaders find a way to meet the challenges of an era of widening conflict, geopolitical competition and political d...

As drones and missiles darken the skies above conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, is a transformation in modern warfare leading to a new arms race? And as technology and tactics evolve, which weapons and defence systems are being bought, and who is buying them?  Gavin Esler discusses the realities of the arms trade in 2026 with Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher in the Arms Transfers Programm...

Putin thought that Ukraine would quickly fold under a massively superior Russian onslaught. Instead, the War has seen Ukraine reinventing itself as a world expert in drone warfare, exploiting cheap replaceable tech and digital networks to strike deep and painfully into Russia. Ukraine now leads the world in the air defence expertise required in today’s conflict zones – and nations across Europe an...

Though Saddam Hussein tried to develop them and North Korea is accused of stockpiling them, biological weapons have been considered taboo for decades. Theoretically they’re banned. But intelligence agencies and military leaders are increasingly warning of wider clandestine programmes to develop deadly mass toxins, and A.I. is lowering the barriers to entry dramatically. As governments scramble to...

Acts of sabotage and arson spreading across Europe are persistently connected to Russia. Gavin Esler is joined by Shaun Walker, the Guardian's central and eastern Europe correspondent, to discuss the Kremlin’s shadow warfare network and the chaos state-sponsored terror is causing across the continent.  • Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people? Some 3.5 MILLION people downloa...

The final episode of a four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… This time: International leaders cling to the idea that Trump’s violent overthrow of the world order and embrace of raw power will prove temporary. But what if it isn’t? What if we’ve entered a new age where might makes right? And after Iran and Venezuela, is there any coherent vision behind America’s new foreign policy – or is it j...

A four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon. How will we cope with the end of the Pax Americana – and what comes next?  This time: As Trump flips the table and walks away from America’s old international role, China want to take advantage. The People’s Republic is squaring up to the US on multiple fronts – economic, technological, cultura...

A new four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon. How will we cope with the end of Pax Americana – and what comes next? Gavin Esler dives deep into a harsh new era of international relations.  In this second episode, has Trump broken the trust-based world order – or just exposed it? Are we building a hostile world of fortresses? What would...

A new four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Get the complete series now when you support us on Patreon. Trump’s reckless war on Iran was the culmination of a year of aggressive rhetoric and scorn for allies from the White House. It also cemented a new American ethos: the United States will do whatever it wants, whenever it wants, without concern for friends and allies. The Atlanticist nightma...

A brand new four-part mini-series from This Is Not A Drill...as we face the end of Pax Americana, what comes next? Get all episodes now via our Patreon or subscribe to the Podmasters Originals channel on Apple Podcasts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As America turns against the world, China is seeing more and more opportunities to grow. Its soft power influence is growing and cultural influence is blooming globally. How is this happening and what impact will it have? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Yu Jie, senior research fellow on China in the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House, to discuss.  • Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, infl...

America’s war on Iran has triggered deadly consequences across the Middle East, with attacks on oil supplies causing a global economic shock. Now, as authorities investigate terror-related violence and sabotage in the US and Europe, are we headed for a new era of terror similar to what followed America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? And in a world critically dependent on digital infrastructure, h...

Facing aerial bombardment and the economic shock of an oil crisis, the Gulf States have found themselves on the front lines of war in the Middle East. As missiles and drones attack oil and civilian infrastructure, how will Iran’s neighbours respond to the latest major escalation in long-term regional rivalry? And what are the consequences for the stability and prosperity of an entire region? Gavin...

Donald Trump has claimed he will choose when the Iran war is over – but does he really have that choice?  Faced with Iranian retaliation and a conflict spilling out across the Middle East, what is in his control and what isn’t? And as Iran’s regime continues to attack US allies in the region, closing the Straits of Hormuz with global economic repercussions, is the US administration stumbling into...

The US/Israeli war with Iran has led to a wave of conflict across the Middle East. In Lebanon, missile attacks on Israel from Hezbollah militants have been met with an Israeli assault – which has led to hundreds of deaths and more than 750,000 displaced from their homes.  Reporting from Beirut, Oz Katerji talks to Lebanese political writer and organiser Karim Safieddine. They discuss the future fo...

Iran has retaliated against US and Israeli attacks, widening the conflict across the Middle East. As the crisis deepens, is Donald Trump risking the kind of endless war he campaigned against? And for Iran, how long can its regime last in the face of the assault, and what does its retaliation risk?  Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at RUSI....

Trump’s stunning surprise attack on Iran could be the most consequential world event since 9/11. Will the President’s goal of smooth regime change work when it failed every other time, or trigger a regional conflagration? Iran’s hated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead but the Islamic Republic is showing no sign of collapsing. And now Hezbollah has attacked other Arab states as well as British an...

It has been four years since the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Does Vladimir Putin still believe he is leading Russia to a military victory, or is he now banking on winning at the negotiating table? Gavin Esler talks to Samuel Greene, Professor of Russian Politics at King’s College London. You can read more from Professor Greene at his Substack, TL;DRussia.  Advertisers! Want to reach sm...

What a difference a year makes - or does it? The 2025 Munich Security Conference was shocked by divisive words from the US Vice President JD Vance. But at this year’s gathering, Marco Rubio represented America and struck a more conciliatory tone. What does this mean for Europe? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr. Liana Fix, senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss.  Advert...