This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

How will Trump and the GOP’s monumental defeats in the midterms impact US foreign policy? Will the resounding rebuke of Trumpism and Democratic control of both Houses of Congress force Trump to change course? In today’s episode: how will America’s domestic political turmoil affect the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, and US relationships in a divided world? Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Leslie Vinjamu...

Trump’s erratic actions around Ukraine look less and less like sincere bids to end the war and more like attempts to cosy up to Putin, sell out Ukraine and save himself in the midterms. And Putin is using his increased impunity. Within hours of any meeting between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and the Russians there’s another devastating Russian missile attack on Ukraine. Is the Trump Administration...

A new Great Game is under way. As the frozen poles start to melt, a new “ice silk road” is emerging in the newly-navigable Arctic Ocean – and it’s subject of intense commercial and military competition between China, Europe, the US and Russia. Trump’s on-off threats to Greenland are still causing consternation across Europe and NATO, China sees a new opportunity for dominance, and to Russia t...

Trump’s sanction-busting diesel deal with Vladimir Putin has sent shockwaves across the world. As Ukraine braces for a Russian winter offensive, have US threats to withhold intelligence and access to weapons sold out the Ukrainian people? Gavin Esler is joined by Steven Pifer, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe and a former US ambassador to Ukraine,...

On August 4th a drone strapped with explosives failed to detonate when it struck a Ukrainian plane at Leipzig Airport. German security services investigating the device pointed the blame at Russia’s GRU. Putin is ramping up his hybrid warfare against NATO allies, including cyber attacks, arson, sabotage and drone incursion. Just how far is he willing to go to test Europe? Gavin Esler talks to...

A surge in violence in Yemen has seen Houthi forces seize land on the Red Sea coast – reigniting a war with Saudi Arabia and threatening a further global energy shock. The Iranian-aligned group has increased its foothold in Yemen, now locked in civil war for more than a decade, and launched drone attacks on Saudi oil pipelines. With global trade still reeling from the crisis in the Strait of Hormu...

The civil war in Myanmar is Asia’s deadliest ongoing conflict – yet despite violence which has killed more than 100,000 people it rarely dominates international headlines. In today’s episode Oz Katerji talks to Matthew Campbell, reporter at Bloomberg Businessweek, about the drivers of this complex, factionalised war, the battle for the country’s rare natural resources, and the reaction of the inte...

Completing the four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Warfare is evolving faster than ever in this dangerous world. Gavin Esler explores a new generation of weapons and how they’ll fight – or prevent – the next wars. This time: Artificial Intelligence is reshaping everything and its effects on warfare are already profound. Hyper-fast intelligent systems can bring together drones, con...

A four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Warfare is evolving faster than ever in this dangerous world. Gavin Esler explores a new generation of weapons and how they’ll fight – or prevent – the next wars. This time: When missiles and drones become cheaper and more widely-available, air defence becomes top priority. What does it mean when ruinously expensive interceptors like the Patri...

A new four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Warfare is evolving faster than ever in this dangerous world. Gavin Esler explores a new generation of weapons and how they’ll fight – or prevent – the next wars. This time: In an age of brutal medium-sized regional conflicts, nuclear deterrence is suddenly less important – and missiles are back. From massively destructive hypersonic...

A new four-part series from This Is Not A Drill… Putin thought he could conquer Ukraine with a tank, air and infantry-led attack straight out of the Second World War. Instead Kyiv turned the tables on Russia with the fastest, most intensive transformation of warfare in half a century. In this mini-series Gavin Esler explores this new generation of weapons and how they’ll fight – or prevent –&...

Is everything we knew about warfare changing right before our eyes? The war in Ukraine began with tanks and infantry...and now drones dominate in the battle for dominance. In a brand new four-part series New Weapons for New Wars, we explore what the present and indeed, the future of the battlefield looks like. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Space is now an essential part of military planning and operations. Recent reports suggest Russia and China have discussed targeting Starlink satellites, highlighting their increasing importance in conflicts.  Are ‘space wars’ no longer science fiction but part of military planning? Joining Gavin Esler to discuss the implications and the dangers of this new potential battleground is Dr Mark H...

As Russian casualties mount in brutal frontline assaults on Ukraine, Putin’s recruitment is growing ever more desperate. With international sanctions biting and Ukraine’s own campaigns targeting critical Russian infrastructure - can Putin sustain his war? Can he find the manpower – or can he afford it? To discuss the latest from Russia, Gavin Esler is joined by Dr Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow...

Donald Trump’s failing war on Iran has emboldened China. Beijing is trying to build relationships to counter Washington, as it looks to fill a vacuum in power globally left by the United States as it shifts its geopolitical strategy. Gavin Esler is joined by Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, to discuss how China is trying to capitalise on America’s failings.&nb...

Just days into the Iran conflict, strikes had taken out much of the country’s military leadership. Yet the conflict continues with a new regime installed in Tehran. With the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei unseen since the outbreak of war, who is really in charge now? And as peace negotiations continue to stall, what drives Tehran’s decisions? Gavin Esler discusses the latest from Iran with Pr...

A week of turmoil within Ukraine’s armed forces has seen protestors take to the streets and a chaotic series of changes at the very top of military command.  What comes next for the future of Ukraine's defence, after a week of damaging political upheaval? And what does it mean for Zelenskyy’s military strategy? Oz Katerji is joined by Jimmy Rushton, special correspondent at the Kyiv Independe...

European security is in a state of crisis that would have been hard to imagine when Emmanuel Macron took office as French President in 2017. What happens when a President whose term has been so dominated by the threat of Russia, the fate of NATO and fears for Europe’s independence comes to the end of his term? Fresh from the NATO summit, Macron turned his final Bastille Day into a statement of Eur...

As member states gathered for the NATO conference in Ankara this week, leaders faced a series of questions over the future of the security alliance. As President Trump flew into Turkey criticising allies over spending commitments and their support in the Iran conflict, could they rely on the US commitment to NATO any longer?  And with Russia’s war on Ukraine ongoing, and the looming threat th...

The United States’ war with Iran is a reminder that it’s easier to start a war than to end it. Many other lessons from the conflict are also being analysed right now, from how relatively low-cost weapons change the economics of war, to how even a far-away war can affect all of us in our daily lives. Dr Neda Bolourchi, Middle East historian and nonresident fellow with the Institute for Global Affai...

Ukrainian drone swarms have hit targets in major Russian cities, while disrupting its military assets and vital oil supplies. Could this be a turning point in the war more than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion began?  Gavin Esler is joined by John Lough, senior research fellow at the New Eurasia Strategies Centre and associate fellow in the Russia Eurasia programme at Chatham House. •...

News of the framework for a peace deal between Iran and the United States - if it holds - might be the beginning of the end of a conflict that has unsettled not just the Middle East and the world economy but also Washington’s relationships with its allies.  Even if President Trump claims some kind of victory in Iran - with stories about arguments and possible rifts between Trump and Israel’s Prime...

Germany is rearming as the Russian threat looms over Europe and much of the continent’s security rests on its success. Backed by an emergency ‘Zeitenwende’ fund and an ever-expanding defence budget, Germany is undertaking a profound military transformation with the aim of becoming Europe’s strongest conventional army. What does this mean more broadly? And where do they need to focus? Jörg Lau, for...

Beyond the pomp and pageantry of Vladimir Putin’s Beijing summit with Xi Jinping, what do Russia and China need from each other? And how strong is their relationship? Plus, coming hot on the heels of Donald Trump’s own Beijing visit, what does it mean for the geopolitical balance in an era of great power competition? Gavin Esler joins Joseph Webster, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and edito...

In a new book, Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations Mark Leonard argues that we have entered an age of ‘un-order’ – when the rules and norms of the international order no longer hold sway. Can democratic leaders find a way to meet the challenges of an era of widening conflict, geopolitical competition and political d...