The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47k5xcW David Bahnsen recaps The Bahnsen Group’s annual “money manager week,” describing its history since 2006 and explaining how he, Brian Szytel, and Kenny Molina held nearly 30 meetings and later debriefed with their investment committee. He highlights a major, disappointing lesson from an emerging markets manager whose portfolio shifted heavily into AI/semico...

Brian Szytel recaps a volatile market day marked by value outperforming growth, dividend payers beating growth-oriented stocks, and equal-weight indices outperforming cap-weighted, alongside notable bond-market swings following hotter-than-expected CPI and a sharply higher PPI print. He reviews key economic data: initial jobless claims in line, retail sales far above expectations, and improving ma...

On October 14, Dividend Cafe recapped a down market day with the Dow nearly flat, the S&P down over 1%, and the Nasdaq down about 1.9% as tech and semis led declines. Markets reacted to September CPI, with headline inflation up 0.6% (in line) but core CPI up 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and year-over-year core at 2.6% versus 2.5%, with broader components like airfares, transportation, and shelter...

Brian Szytel recaps a modestly lower, mixed market day with the S&P flat, Dow down 180, and Nasdaq down about 40, led by weakness in semis and some AI names. With CPI due tomorrow, markets were largely rudderless; rates fell across the curve, especially long-end, further flattening the yield curve. Early bank earnings were generally positive even as financial stocks fell. He notes year-to-date...

In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen notes the stock market was open while the bond market was closed for a government/bank holiday, which he считает distortive given markets’ sensitivity to yields, and points viewers to Friday’s bond-yield episode. He recaps markets: Dow +196, S&P slightly down, Nasdaq down nearly 0.5%, with energy leading (oil above $93) and technology lagging. He emp...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2 David L. Bahnsen previews a fuller recap of portfolio-manager meetings next week and focuses this episode on the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields, especially the 10-year. He argues the 75-basis-point jump is not credibly explained by worsening U.S. deficits or national debt, noting total public-plus-private debt-to-GDP is unchanged versus 20 years...

Brian Szytel records shortly before the close on October 8, noting a modest down day with the Dow and S&P off about a third of a percent and the Nasdaq down about two-thirds, as value holds up better than growth amid sharply higher oil (WTI around $92, Brent around $106) and slightly higher rates. He observes the yield curve has been flattening over the past two weeks as long rates come down s...

Brian Szytel reports a modest down day in equities after all-time highs, with oil trending lower (WTI ~88, Brent ~100), a slightly flatter yield curve, and the 10-year around 5.28%. He cites limited economic news beyond FOMC minutes reaffirming a 25 bp hike and expectations for another hike this year, alongside a well-received ~40B 10-year auction. He describes a bifurcated backdrop: higher-for-lo...

David Bahnsen delivers the Daily Recap from New York City while Brian Szytel meets with a manager, noting that he, Brian, and Kenny Molina are in their annual week of meetings with many money managers, having completed 16 meetings in two days and not yet halfway through. He says early takeaways include the biggest area of disagreement among managers being differing views on AI, while the common co...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Tqofwe The Monday Dividend Cafe is recorded mid-day during a “money manager week” of meetings at Apollo, Blackstone, and Golden Tree. With earnings season starting, quarterly earnings expectations have risen 1.8% in five days, with upward revisions concentrated in technology and downward revisions in consumer staples and industrials, shaping the bar for surprises...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4iVv0QW David Bahnsen announces a temporary shift from the usual Dividend Cafe format: a normal episode on Monday, a future deep dive on long-term bond yields, and a later recap of the firm’s annual New York meetings with money managers. He marks the closing (September 30) of The Bahnsen Group becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Hightower Advisors, explaining wh...

Brian Szytel hosts The Dividend Cafe from New York City on the first day of Q4, noting a benign market day (Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq flat) and a slightly steepening yield curve. He argues that higher long-term rates repricing toward nominal growth is natural, not inherently sinister, and says the first “cracks” to watch would be widening high-yield credit spreads, which remain very tight, suggesti...

On Sept. 30, Brian Szytel reports a bifurcated market into quarter-end, with the Dow down about 200 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise, led by large-cap growth; yields steepen as the 10-year and 30-year move higher. A cooler-than-expected PCE inflation report (core and year-over-year) lowers implied odds of an October Fed hike to about 35%, though Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could shift ex...

Brian Szytel reviews modest market declines (Dow -131, S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.10%) with major indexes still up YTD, and focuses on the bond selloff pushing the 10-year yield to about 5.24% amid speculation about 6%. He argues higher yields reflect both higher nominal growth near 6% and a Fed intent on reducing its balance sheet, with limited ability for Treasury financing tactics to meaningfull...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4AC4xy1 From Las Vegas ahead of an investment conference, the host recaps a volatile market day (Dow -347, S&P -0.77%, Nasdaq -0.92%) while the S&P sits near all-time highs despite very weak breadth: ~60% of S&P 500 names are down 20%+ and the market has seen repeated 52-week lows exceed highs; he clarifies a misunderstood stat showing the weighted ave...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4rwGwnT David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe and explains he chose to focus on an energy investment theme rather than the week’s surge in bond yields. He argues investors and media overemphasize headlines about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and WTI prices, while the energy sector remains largely ignored due to its small S&P 500 weight (about 3.5% versus...

On Thursday, Sept. 24, Brian Szytel recaps a down Dow day with the S&P and Nasdaq flat as markets rebounded late on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks potentially easing the Strait of Hormuz situation; WTI still rose about 3% to roughly $95. He highlights the bigger story as higher interest rates, with the 10-year yield up another 10 bps to about 5.21% and up 120 bps year-to-date, arguing media ma...

Brian Szytel reports a broad market decline driven by a bond selloff, with yields rising across the curve in a bearish flattener; the 10-year finished near 5.11%, while the 2s/10s spread remained about 21 bps. He attributes the rate move to stronger flash PMI data in services (58.7 vs. 55.7) and manufacturing (57 vs. 53.5), alongside hotter input inflation tied to fuel and transportation. Energy m...

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the S&P 500 finished flat, the Dow fell 185 points, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.5% as long-end yields eased slightly and the 10-year held near 4.95%. He notes financial conditions have loosened a bit since the Fed’s recent hike, with stocks higher, tight credit spreads, and long yields down, while markets still price more restrictive Fed policy even as W...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4y9YwqV David Bahnsen delivers a quick Monday Dividend Cafe update from Chicago after travel disruptions, covering a strong market day led by communication services and technology while energy fell on a nearly 5% drop in oil; he notes the S&P 500 is near an all-time high even as market breadth has deteriorated sharply. He discusses rising margin debt and how i...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4j4mxuI David Bahnsen discusses the Fed’s quarter-point rate hike, arguing it was largely “performative” because markets had already tightened financial conditions and the Fed is now following rather than leading. He notes the fed funds futures market implies an 87% chance of another hike this year and reviews the political speculation around Chairman Kevin Warsh...

Brian Szytel reports a pre-close market rebound from Newport Beach on Thursday, September 17, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P up over 1%, the Nasdaq up about 1.5%, and the 10-year yield falling to 4.95% as the curve flattens; oil prices eased and recent sector rotation briefly reversed as tech regained bids and equal-weight indexes underperformed cap-weighted. On the economic calendar...

Brian Szytel recaps a volatile Fed day in which the FOMC unanimously raised rates 25 basis points, moving the range from 3.50–3.75 to 3.75–4.00, a move largely priced in. He notes dot plots implying one more hike before year-end (around 4.00–4.25), with market reaction reflecting short-term yields up slightly, long-term yields down slightly, and the 10-year unchanged near 5.01. Markets sold off (D...

Brian Szytel reviews a down market day driven by oil staying above $100 (Brent 108, WTI 105), ongoing Middle East tensions, and the 10-year Treasury closing near 5%, noting equities are only a few percent off highs. Using an S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of about $406/share next year, he argues a 5% pullback implies ~17.5x forward earnings and a 10% drawdown ~16.6x—normal moves that would...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dB7zsq David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from the Newport Beach studio, recaps the show’s weekly content cadence, and reviews a relatively calm market day after a volatile weekend. Nasdaq and S&P finished down about 0.5% with semiconductors down 5.6%, tied to a weekend letter from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging major AI labs to slow development...