The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yeyV0d David Bahnsen uses the idea of asking 19-year-olds what’s popular to critique a growing tendency among investors to allocate capital based on youth trends and “shiny objects” rather than fundamentals. He distinguishes learning about generational preferences from turning those preferences into portfolio decisions, arguing this misreads Peter Lynch’s “invest...

In this midweek Dividend Cafe (Thursday, July 9), Brian Szytel notes a mixed recovery in markets amid renewed volatility tied to Middle East tensions, while oil prices pulled back slightly and interest rates were flat to slightly lower. Economic updates included initial jobless claims coming in a bit better than expected, suggesting steady, healthy employment, and weaker existing home sales (down...

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 8, discussing increased volatility tied to escalating US-Iran tensions after Iran struck oil tankers and the US retaliated against multiple military targets, with oil up about 5% and markets modestly lower but without a clear flight to safety (dollar slightly up, yields up ~3 bps, gold and silver down). He notes rotation dynamics and highlights s...

Brian Szytel recaps a quiet Tuesday, July 7, with markets closing modestly lower amid increased U.S.–Iran tensions involving tanker attacks and restrictions on Iran’s oil exports; crude rose about 3% to roughly $70.56 while gold dipped. Tech led the decline as semiconductors sold off, with the S&P 500 down ~0.5%, the Dow ~0.4%, and the Nasdaq down a little over 1%. Economic news was limited, b...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bvLEBZ In the Monday Dividend Cafe, the host recaps a post–three-day weekend market rally with the Dow closing above 53,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq up over 1%, while the 10-year Treasury remained around 4.47%. He notes TIP spreads show reduced inflation expectations even as longer yields imply stronger real growth, arguing the...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vddsCn In a midyear 2026 Dividend Cafe holiday episode, the host reviews surprises and themes shaping markets: despite the “Mag Seven” down about 2%, the S&P 493 is up roughly 15–16% and the overall index about 10%, reflecting a major rotation toward value, smaller caps, and sectors like industrials, utilities, and energy. Another surprise is the two-year Tre...

Brian Szytel recaps an unusual pre–July 4th market session with the Dow up 594 points (+1.15%), the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.8% amid a continued unwind in momentum stocks, especially semiconductors, while value and dividend sectors outperformed and the equal-weight S&P beat the cap-weighted index. The key driver was a softer June non-farm payrolls report (57,000 jobs vs. 110,000...

Brian Szytel recaps a down, rotation-driven market day from West Palm Beach, with the Dow near flat, the S&P 500 slightly lower, and the Nasdaq weaker amid a sharp semiconductor sell-off (down 5–10%) even as some software and communication services names rose. He cites strong Korean AI chip export growth (70% year over year) but suggests investors may be pricing semis for perpetually outsized...

Brian Szytel recaps markets on June 30, the last day of Q2, noting a strong first half for the Dow and the best Nasdaq quarter since 2020, with tech leading as the Dow rose 136 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the 10-year yield increased 8 bps. He highlights the Japanese yen at its weakest versus the dollar in over 40 years (~162), describing the yen carry trade...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R54h8Z David Bahnsen previews a forthcoming mid-year Dividend Cafe recap and notes a CNBC interview on market excesses in AI/tech and investor behavior. Markets rose sharply (Dow +300, S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +2%) led by communication services; Google’s first day in the Dow coincided with Verizon’s exit, while materials fell. He argues recent breadth versus index p...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4v7DfvO From Grand Rapids, David Bahnsen reflects on a speech and borrows Abraham Lincoln’s “last best hope” language to argue that markets—properly understood as broad venues of human exchange, entrepreneurship, and capital formation, not merely the stock market—are inherently forward-looking declarations of optimism. He contrasts market incentives with media and...

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, June 25, describing a mixed but slightly positive market with a growth-to-value rotation as equal-weighted indexes outpaced cap-weighted, rates dipped, and oil rose slightly while Brent returned near pre US-Iran levels; despite one major AI semiconductor earnings beat lifting parts of the space, much of tech was down. He reviews heavy economic releases...

Brian Szytel recaps a Wednesday session that began with a recovery bounce led by technology as interest rates and WTI fell, but the rally fizzled and selling in tech resumed while value names held up better. He says markets are digesting valuation pressure with stocks trading around 22–23x earnings and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could affect oil price...

Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off led by technology and semiconductors, highlighting a nearly 10% drop in South Korea’s KOSPI—an index heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix—attributed to valuation, demand shifts, and DRAM supply issues after a major run-up. He notes similar 5–10% declines in high-flying semiconductor names and emphasizes that despite real AI-driven demand and a ra...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vxzpNy David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from Grand Rapids during the Acton Institute Symposium, noting a relatively quiet day that allows more market focus. The Dow rose 148 points while the S&P fell 0.37% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.33% amid weakness in communication services and mega-cap names. He highlights strong year-to-date energy performance,...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fUPJml David Bahnsen hosts Friday’s Dividend Cafe from East Hampton on June 19, a Juneteenth market holiday, and discusses whether current conditions signal a “top” while rejecting short-term market timing. He notes elevated S&P 500 multiples based on operating earnings and warns that today’s concern is more about market mood and complacency than valuations a...

On Thursday, June 18, David Bahnsen recapped a strong market day led by the Nasdaq (up nearly 500 points, just under 2%), with the S&P 500 up just over 1% and the Dow up 72 points. Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services led, while energy, financials, healthcare, and consumer staples lagged. He highlighted SpaceX’s roughly $2.5 trillion market cap (down from nearly $3 tr...

David Bahnsen recaps a major market day following the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where the Fed left rates unchanged but offered a notably brief statement with little forward guidance. The dot plot implied higher rates ahead, though Warsh declined to submit his own projection, reinforcing his opposition to forward guidance as a policy tool. In his first press conference, Warsh annou...

David Bahnsen recaps Tuesday, June 16 market action with the Dow up 329 points (+0.64%) while the S&P fell over 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% as big tech/AI names sold off. Oil fell another 4.5% with WTI around $77, and the 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.437%. Financials rallied about 1.5% (helping the Dow), with strength also in some healthcare names, while energy mostly c...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4eITc6m David Bahnsen covers a broad “around the horn” Monday Dividend Cafe, highlighting extreme SpaceX IPO trading volume as evidence of IPO mania rather than price discovery. Markets rallied on weekend news of a forthcoming U.S.-Iran agreement and a planned signing, with the Dow up 469 points, the S&P up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up over 3%; technology led whil...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49T1HsR David Bahnsen returns Dividend Cafe to its normal market focus and records Thursday to avoid being influenced by SpaceX’s anticipated IPO trading. He discloses he and some clients own SpaceX via an SPV and will be locked up for a year, after which he expects to sell. Using SpaceX’s planned $75B raise with a very small public float and huge valuation, plus...

Brian Szytel recaps a sharp market reversal after a broad sell-off tied to Iran war rhetoric gave way to gains on news of progress toward a deal, with the Dow up about 900 points, the S&P 500 up 1.7%, and the Nasdaq up 2.25%. He notes meaningfully lower interest rates (10-year down 9 bps to ~4.45%) and oil’s reduced sensitivity to Strait of Hormuz headlines as shipping reroutes and supply adju...

From The Bahnsen Group’s West Palm Beach office on June 10, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off driven by a continued rotation out of overvalued tech/semiconductors and later by news the U.S. would resume strikes on Iran, after an initially encouraging CPI report helped markets rebound mid-morning. The Dow fell 953 points (1.87%) to session lows, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and Nasdaq d...

Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach on a volatile market stretch driven by stronger-than-expected jobs data, renewed tech weakness, and Middle East uncertainty. The Dow rose 86 points while the S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the Nasdaq dropped 1%, as equal-weight S&P outperformed cap-weighted by over 100 bps and the 10-year yield fell to 4.52%. He notes the tech sector’s nine-week 47% rally...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fE0HN7 Brian Szytel fills in for David on Dividend Cafe, recapping a mixed market day: the Dow fell about 80 points while the S&P 500 rose ~0.3% and Nasdaq ~0.8%, reflecting a rebound in tech after Friday’s sharp chip-led selloff following a nine-week, 47% tech rally. A much-stronger-than-expected May jobs report (172,000) pushed bond yields higher (10-year ~...