Maley Market Strategy Podcast

In this week's podcast, Mary and I discuss some of the newest developments in the marketplace and how they're showing some concerning cracks in this rally.  The impact of the tariffs are just starting to begin...and despite what we hear & read in the financial press, this earnings season has not been anywhere near as impressive as they portray it.......However, we provide some ideas that shoul...

In this week's edition, we discuss why the odds are much higher than most investors realize that the stock market is very likely getting very close to an important top......We're in a bubble, and when bubbles burst, they are always followed by a bad bear market...not just a correction or even a run of the mill bear market......Therefore, investors need to be acting accordingly. 

In this weekend's podcast, Mary and I discuss which earnings reports will have the biggest impact on the markets this week.  However, we also talk about the Fed and why it's so important to avoid misinterpreting what they do and what their goals really are.  This will be very important for investors over the rest of this year.

It this week's edition, we review a list of some of the very profitable calls we've made so far this year...and which ones should still work going forward.  Even though the market is very expensive and thus filled with more risk than usual, there are still many great opportunities out there.

In this week's podcast, we discuss why although the new record in the stock market is impressive, many risks still abound.  Therefore, having SOME cash on the sidelines is still a good idea.....We also discuss the stocks and groups which should do well over the rest of this year.

With the cease fire in the Middle East, the level of risk in the stock market has come down, but it's still higher than the potential reward.  So, investors still need to keep some cash on the sidelines.  However, one group that looks good on both the fundamental and technical side of things in the banks.  These names are poised to finally outperforming going foward.

The developments out of the Middle East have helped the risk-reward equation, but it it is still weighted towards the side of risk.  The fact that the stock market is still expensive at a time where growth is slowing and earnings estimates are falling, the "Fear of Missing Out" should not be very high right now.

Given how expensive the stock market has become once again...and now with geopolitical risks rising...the upside potential is only about 3%-5%.  However, the downside risks are 10%-20%.  So, investors should not be complacent at current levels.

In this week's podcast, we talk about why the stock market could easily see a new all-time high, but there are still some significant risks for the longer-term.  Remember, spring "scares" are frequently followed by bigger problems in the fall.....Also, silver is seeing a strong breakout and this is likely signaling a very strong rally-leg for this precious metal.

The upside potential for the stock market is a new all-time high, but that still keeps the upside at about 5%-6%.  However, the downside risks are for a 10%-20% decline...even if we avoid a recession...given that the economy is definitely slowing and earnings estimates continue to decline.  

The momentum in the stock market is strong, so it could make a new all-time high.  However, investors seem to be equating the fact that we're not going to get the worst-case scenario on the tariff issue...with the thought that the economy is going to see the best-case scenario.....Instead, the upside potential is smaller than the downside risk after the recent strong bounce off the April lows.

The agreement between the US and China on tariffs does lower the odds of recession.  However, there are still other reasons to be concerns about today's very expensive market.  That said, we do have some good picks in some names that should do well no matter which way the broad stock market goes over the coming weeks and months.

The reaction to the foundation for a trade agreement between the US and China is certainly positive.  However, there are still several very important headwinds from outside the tariff issue that remain intact...including higher long-term interest rates.  Given that the stock market has become extremely expensive again, this could/should mean that we'll still see plenty of volatility in the weeks a...

The fundamental outlook for the stock market is not strong enough to justify a further rally from current levels.  That said, the major averages are all testing key technical levels, so the negotiations with China this weekend should be very important for the stock market's next big move.

The economy is weakening and earnings are falling.  This is not good a tall for a stock market that is still very expensive.....The stock market cannot trade at 20x forward earnings (or even close to that) without major liquidity injections...and the Fed is signaling that they won't be providing those injections.

Even if Trump keeps "blinking" on the trade issue, a further decline in earnings estimates is unavoidable.  The trade issue will merely turn an inevitable deep correction...into a bear market. 

The stock market needed to go through a "reset process" even if the tariff issue never developed.  However, since it has developed, this "process" will be a more painful one.  Investors need to embrace this thought...instead of fighting it.

Our call for a deep correction in January has been spot on.  The market is now ripe for a sharp bounce, but the the longer-term outlook is complicated.  The tariff issue is not the only one creating headwinds for stocks.

Will we get a "buy the news rection" to the tariff announcement this week?  (What does "buy the news" mean?  We answer that question this week.)....No matter what happens with the tariff issue, earnings growth is not strong enough to create a return to a sustainable rally.

There is so much more going on with the recent stock market correction than just the tariff issue.  Therefore, the odds of further weakness before we the real bottom are quite high. 

The Fed just acknowledged that growth is going to be slower in 2025 and in 2026.  That is not good for a stock market that is still quite expensive...despite the initial positive reaction.

The tariff issue may have been a key catalyst for the recent stock market decline, but there are many other issues involved as well.  This is the beginning of a reset process that will pull stock prices down to a level that is more in-line with today's real fundamental outlook.  This process will be painful, but those who embrace it will profit quite nicely.

The recent swoon in the stock market is not just due to the tariff issue.  There are several headwinds, so there is more weakness to come.  The strategy should now be to sell the rallies, instead of buy the dips.  

Several new very important developments have put today's expensive stock market at a risk of a meaningful decline.  We'll see bounces along the way...maybe even sharp ones...but they will merely provide opportunities to raise some cash.  (Corrections are NORMAL, so do not fight them!)

In this week's episode, we discuss how the warning signals for the consumer are becoming much larger...and how this could have an important impact on the markets.  We also discuss why several key stocks that could benefit in this environment...AND whether Europe's outperforming stock market is worth chasing at these levels.