Maley Market Strategy Podcast

In this week's we discuss whether the recent renewed rally in the AI industry can continue...and whether it can offset the (still) very high price of oil...and the extremely strong rise in long-term interest rates......Given what is coming out of the Fed...and out of Iran...it doesn't look like we're going to get much relief soon on either of these fronts......Also, we discuss whether the recent m...

In this week's piece, we discuss how the are a half dozen different signals...which usually develop at/near an important top in the market...are coming to a head right now. Therefore, investors need to avoid being overly complacent over the last 3.5 months of the year......We also discuss which areas...and which stocks...should do quite well during this upcoming time of uncertainty.

In this week's piece, we discuss why bond yields are poised for a near-term decline...and that oil prices are in the same condition.  Therefore, investors should be careful about bearish bets on the bond market and bullish bets on the energy market...but only over the near-term. We also discuss why the upcoming election is becoming more important than usual for investors...and why they need to loo...

In this week's edition, we discuss how Kevin Warsh's comments in Jackson Hole should not just be seen as hinting towards a more hawkish stance by the Fed, but he also told investors that the "Fed put" will only be used during times of crisis in the future.  In other words, he's going to let the markets trade on their own much more than several of his predecessors have done over the past 15 years. ...

In this week's episode, we discuss why why Secretary Bessent's new proposals to help push Treasury yields lower is a sign that the budget deficit has now grown to a level where it is making it much more difficult for authorities to control those yields.....We also highlight how Chairman Warsh is unlikely going to hold investors' hands to the degree they'd like him to going forward.....On top of th...

This week’s podcast focused on the growing challenges facing the bond market and the broader implications for risk assets. We discussed whether the administration’s recent move to become more involved in buying U.S. Treasury bonds is a desperate attempt to support the market, while emphasizing that rising long-term interest rates are about much more than inflation—they also reflect massive Treasur...

In this week's podcast, we highlight why the recent bounce in the tech sector (and thus the stock market) could turn out to be merely something that is working off its oversold condition...and not the beginning of a new leg to the bull market......We also discuss why the rise in long-term bond yields is something that should stay with us...and why the recent criticism of new Fed Chairman Warsh is...

In this week's Podcast, we discussed the implications of the newest cracks in the wall of the bullish scenario for the stock market......This does not mean that the market cannot see a very-short-term bounce soon.  However, as these cracks get bigger and become more numerous, it's creating the kind of "set up" which could be followed by a much deeper decline in risk assets in the coming months tha...

In this week's edition, Matt and Mary discuss how the recent "sell the news" reaction from many tech companies is spreading to other areas of the stock market this earnings season.  This is taking place at a time when the equity markets in Asia are seeing some significant cracks...and global long-term yields are pushing higher once again.....This is also taking place at a time when the major avera...

In this week's podcast, Mary and I discuss how there are many too many companies whose stocks are trading lower...frequently much lower...after they report earnings/guidance.  This is taking place for the stock of companies whose earnings/guidance were excellent...as well as those whose stocks have not rallied recently (and thus not "priced in" the good news.......We also discuss how the financial...

In this week's episode, we discuss why the fact that the MAGS Mag 7 ETF has fallen into correction territory is a big problem for the stock market.  Yes, there is some more good news on the chip group, but there are even some cracks showing up in that group.....Therefore, investors will need to remain extremely nimble going forward......HOWEVER, since the trend for the market is still higher, we a...

In this week's podcast, we discuss the how the proposed deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is something that has likely already been priced into the market.  However, if it quickly becomes evident that the market can rally further...through a "rotation" move, we have several areas that we believe can outperform......We also discuss how that change at the top of the Federal Reserve could/should ha...

In this week's podcast, we discuss how the delayed reaction to Broadcom's earnings last week...and the news that more data center projects are getting delayed/cancelled...are the kinds of cracks which could be signaling some significant weakness soon in the AI related stocks.....We also discuss the key levels to keep an eye on in the tech sector to watch...which, if broken, will signal an importan...

In this week's episode, Mary and I discuss how this extremely narrow the stock market continues to be, but that if we continue to makes some great picks (like I have over the past two months), one can still make money some nice profits..........HOWEVER, we also have to be very careful about betting on a broad rebound.  Also, we like stocks that have been beaten down...and are just beginning to bre...

In this week's podcast, Mary and I argue that since the stock market never priced in the huge run up in oil prices this spring...a decline in crude prices is not going to help the stock market rally a lot further.  Instead, it is going to depend on continued flow of net liquidity into the system.   This CAN take place, so we're not turning wildly bearish.  However, given that the earnings growth f...

In this week's podcast, Mary and I discuss the fact that an important change in trend has taken place for long-term Treasury yields.  This is particularly worrisome...because of the recent significant weakness in the high yield bond market as well.  On top of these two issues, the private credit market is heading into its next "redemption" season for private credit.  Therefore, the odds that the s...

In this week's edition, we discuss why the current rally in the stock market is being fueled more by excess liquidity than positive earnings growth.  The earnings growth IS good, but it's also isolated to just a handful of stocks.  We also highlight several stocks and groups which should takeover the leadership role in this rally...from some of the high flying tech names that have become extremely...

In this week's podcast, we talk about the idea that although stronger earnings growth is playing a key role in the stock market advance...there is another issue that is even more important.  We discuss whether this can continue for many months like it did last year......We also talk about the stocks which are getting ahead of themselves and which ones are poised to breakout.....Finally, we touch o...

In this week's podcast, we talk about our concerns with the fact that the tech stocks (especially the chips) are getting quite overbought at a time when bond yields are back at their 2026 highs...and oil prices are doing the same.....We also discuss how certainly areas of the market should outperform before long...after getting beaten down recently.  

In this week's edition, we spend a lot of time discussing the misconceptions about what is driving the stock market right now.  We are only a few weeks away from a major turning point in the war in the Middle East.....How strong are earnings?....Which stocks will outperform going forward?  Find out in this week's Podcast!

The global economy is already looking at some real shortages of key commodities.  If the blockade lasts for any material amount of time (just a few weeks), it will create the kind of serious shortages that will create a global shutdown.  This does not mean we'll see a repeat of the sudden pandemic crash of 2020, but it will still be serious.  Therefore, we expect the President to get a deal done w...

In this week's episode, we touch on the thought that since the President cannot flip the switch and change on the market reacts to the war in the Middle East (like he did last year with the tariff issue), trying to "jawbone" the market is not going to have the same kind of lasting impact this year. We also highlight how the issue of "shortages" is going to become a problem soon...and why we think...

In this week's edition, we discuss the difference between what was going on in the markets at this point last year compared to now.  The President cannot flip a switch like he did last year...and there are significant questions about how far Israel and Iran will go to meet their goals.....We also discuss how the private credit market is not something that is going to go away......Finally, we touch...

The real goal of the war in the Middle East is to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and remove their uranium.  This will take time, so the war will continue...and oil prices will remain high......We also discuss the broadening stress in the credit markets...as well as which stocks (and other risk assets) that should outperforming going forward. 

As much as the price of oil is extremely important to the economy and the markets, we also have a credit market that is experiencing growing stress.  We also have headwinds surrounding the profitability of the AI industry.  Therefore, the upside potential for the stock market is limited and stock selection & sector selection will be critical going forward.  We cover these and other issues this...