Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast

This week, our 3 Things are: Slack. It’s growing in the labor and industrial markets. Equity euphoria. A surprising view of what’s ahead. Consumer lenders. Risk investors are making a noteworthy distinction.  

This week our three things are: U.S. exceptionalism. Efficient capital markets are a big part. C-suite confidence. It’s building. Banks, a year later. Here’s what we learned, a year after the “March events.”

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.    Powell’s dilemma. To cut or not to cut. It’s not just data dependent. We’ll explain. 2.    FICO scores. They’ve hooked over for the first time in a decade. What does that mean? 3.    Direct lending default and recovery rate surprises. Eric Rosenthal is along to bring you up to date.  

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Commodities downdraft. Historically, that move can be good or bad—we’ll give you our thoughts. 2.   Cost of equity versus cost of debt. What does the Fed make of this? 3.   A “choiceful” consumer. What that means for all-important spending. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Commercial real estate threat to banks. We’ll provide some much-needed facts. 2. Shifting to slowdown. Here’s how corporate earnings growth is impacted. 3. Private credit borrowers. Ares’ description is useful context.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Credit’s strong technicals. It will help you get comfortable with tight spreads. 2.   Market volatility. It’s awakened in equities. Should credit keep pace? 3.   “Hot” CPI versus “cold” retail sales. Has the broader narrative changed?

This week, our 3 Things are: Credit card delinquencies. It’s all over the press. We’ll tell you whether or not to be worried.  Updated SLOOS. How are bankers thinking about lending in this environment? Barkin wisdom. The head of the Richmond Fed challenges Fedspeak.  

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.     New York Community Bank. An evolving story; here’s what it means to the broader macro story. 2.     Nonbanks. They continue to take share from banks. That’s a good thing.  3.     IMF’s latest global economic outlook. It’s actually tilting toward bullish. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   That GDP report. Everyone—literally everyone—missed this. Here are our takeaways. 2.   Narrowness. Beware of the aggregate statistic.  3.   Earnings warnings. Underneath market euphoria is some sobering guidance.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Anatomy of a soft landing. We’ll walk you through our building blocks. 2.   Big bank color. Our latest update on how the largest lenders are seeing credit.  3.   Private credit maturity wall. Here’s the data.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   The rise in problem loans at banks. Should we be worried? 2.   Geopolitical risks. The radar is getting crowded.  3.   KBRA Analytics default forecast. We’ve got a non-consensus view.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.     The banks are alright. Questions as to the viability of the business model are misplaced. 2.     Sentiment split. Folks are split on the recession call and risk valuations. Here’s what that means.  3.     Financial conditions. They might not be as loose as you’ve heard. Here’s a measure worth considering.  

This week, our 3 Things are: Great Monetary Pivot. Back to the future. Big risks. Is the U.S. election one of them? Market fear. Some measures have it at a low point. Does that make sense?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.    Tight spreads. There’s a lot underpinning this view. 2.    Beige blues. There’s a turn in the Fed’s colorful book. 3.    Consumer leverage. There’s an interesting look across income groups.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Rates volatility. What in the world is going on? 2.   Consumer dry powder. Apparently, it’s much stronger than previously forecast. 3.   Energy price relief. Markets have settled down, for now.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   The AT1 market. It’s back! 2.   Carried away. The sentiment shifts of late have been breathtaking. Here’s what you need to know. 3.   Retailer earnings. We’ll let you in on what we’re seeing about what they’re seeing.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Narrative shift. When bad news is bad news. 2.   Senior Loan Officer Survey. Is it still important? 3.   The Sahm Rule. It’s back on the radar. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Middle East and oil. We’ll provide some useful context. 2.   Regional banks. Jay Powell says the business model is under pressure. We’ll have a look. 3.   Small caps. They are really important to credit. We’ll tell you why.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Earnings optimism. Is it misplaced? 2.   The Fed’s Financial Stability Report. We’ll have a look at what the central bank is warning us about. 3.   Default outlook. We’ll talk to our own Eric Rosenthal for the latest. 

This week, our 3 Things are: Big bank color. The largest lenders provide real-time insight into their credit portfolios. Cost of borrowing. It has really gone up, and that’s doing the Fed’s work. Is that a good thing? Credit’s relative value. Here’s how it compares to stocks. 

This week, our 3 Things are: 1.   Q3 earnings. They should be fine overall, but we’re not out of the woods yet. 2.   Fed change. A decidedly dovish narrative is emerging. 3.   Pemberton’s view. We sat down with the Managing Partner of one of Europe’s largest private credit managers. You’ll want to listen in. 

This week, our 3 Things are: A troublesome path. We’ll walk you through a scenario that challenges Goldilocks. A case for cuts. Be careful what you wish for, but if all goes to plan, it’s part of the back half of 2024. Don’t lose sight of the SLOOS. It works with a lag, which means it is becoming meaningful.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Fed’s forecast. There’s a lot to unpack there. 2. Trouble down below. Underneath large caps and liquid bonds there are issues. 3. CEO confidence. This correlates well with economic growth. We’ve got an updated view courtesy of the Business Roundtable.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. End of the hiking cycle. What typically happens? 2. Oil spike. We’ll explore its outsized impact on sentiment. 3. Bank risk. Just how much is there?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Tightening financial conditions. It’s been slow in coming, but it’s here. 2. Investment-grade credit spreads. They’ve held in because they should. 3. Consumer sentiment. How useful is it in determining consumer spend?