Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast

This week, our 3 Things are: Jobs’ weakness. The June report confirms all is not well.  Q2 earnings. We’re set up for a strong quarter.     Robust  consumer spend. So says one well-informed observer.  

This week, our 3 Things are: Rates vs. oil. There’s been a breakdown in the relationship.  Critical thresholds. We’re highlighting three worth watching.     REITs vs. BDCs. Two peas in a pod, right?     

This week, our 3 Things are: Deflation. It’s a check on the market’s most significant near-term risk.  Credit loss cycle. Is it upon us?  CCC signal. What the weakest credits are suggesting. 

This week, our 3 Things are: Hyperscaler debt issuance. Funding the AI build-out goes global.  Next-wave growth. Beyond AI and wealthy household spending, these forces will help.   Industrial Renaissance. How real is it?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Waller redirect. One of the Fed’s thought leaders says risks have changed. We’ll dig into what he’s seeing. 2. Income slowdown. The raw material that drives the economy is running into headwinds. 3. 2026 default forecasts. We’ll get the latest update from KBRA Analytics’ Eric Rosenthal.

This week, our 3 Things are: Rates’ risk. What does it mean for credit? Stock vs. bond volatility. Something has to give.   Consumer color. We canvas bellwether transcripts for an up-to-date view.  

This week, our 3 Things are: Jobs rebound. Have we reached an inflection point? Shock watch. Inflation, energy, and food are all set to move the wrong way. Is this priced into risk?   Historic uncertainty. Three experienced voices weigh in on what’s in front of us.  

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Changing narratives. Better visibility and perspective on issues that drove a selloff in risk earlier this spring. 2. Earnings surge. It’s not just tech. 3. Nonlinear oil move. The risk of a spike is growing.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. What we’re watching. Fresh off the press from our Forward Look publication. 2. Defaults two ways. We compare market prices to the bottom-up view. 3. Oil price perspective. Getting past the threat of “$100 oil.”

This week, our 3 Things are: Earnings growth. One observer describes earnings growth as “soaring.” Is that right? Bank exposure to nonbanks. Should we be worried about the linkage? Constructive pessimism. It’s present and it’s bondholder-friendly.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Growth shock vs. inflation shock. What’s the biggest risk? 2. Big bank credit color. Real-time read on credit from the largest lenders. 3. IMF sours. Its latest forecasts recognize a laundry list of risks.

This week, our 3 Things are: Resiliency. The U.S. economy has demonstrated that in spades. But is it sustainable? Dimon on credit. Getting past the headlines. Consumer trends. We identify three flying under the radar.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Shock risk. Risk is rising, but will credit reprice? 2. Loan growth surge. Where did that come from? 3. Earnings relief. Good news is on the horizon.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Earnings vs. oil. We have an interesting comparison between the two. 2. Systemic leverage. Don’t lose sight of where we stand. 3. Stagflation. Is it really back?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Bond havens. The flight to quality has shifted. 2. Oracle reassures. An AI lightning rod reports earnings and outlook. 3. Risk reprice. Where is it happening?

This week, our 3 Things are: Productivity boom or savings drain? Peeling the onion on sources of growth. Labor pessimism. Is the jobs picture really “weak and fragile”? Inflation pressure. It’s building.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Fed in flux. Moving toward neutral. 2. Single-Bs widening. What does it signal? 3. HALOs. A new investing acronym and a sign of the times.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Delinquencies warning. Is that really a thing??? 2. Utilities unicorns. Can a sector be both defensive and growth? 3. K-Shapes. They’re present in places beyond the consumer.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Retail sales disconnect. It’s normalizing, but not as weak as the latest data. 2. Labor’s lost leverage. More of the economic spoils are going to capital—is that a bad thing? 3. Rising hyperscaler issuance. Massive new issue supply is forcing investors to rethink the status quo.

This week, our 3 Things are: Margin lift. They’re high and expected to go higher. Excitable risk. Volatility is back. Just how much matters to credit fundamentals? The path of interest rates. The consensus is calling for a 4-bp range for the 10-year over the next six quarters. What does that tell you?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. What we’re watching. Here’s what we believe will shape credit valuation over the near-term. 2. Visa/Mastercard spending update. The latest read from the global payments titans. 3. KBRA DLD default forecasts. Our own Eric Rosenthal weighs in with his outlook for 2026.

This week, our 3 Things are: Bond vigilantes. Volatility has come to sovereign debt markets. What’s next? The cost of gloom. The Economist newspaper says it’s the world’s main economic risk. Biggest risks. Speaking of risk, here’s what market participants believe pose the biggest risk to market stability.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Housing headwinds. Are we close to unlocking real value? 2. Big bank credit color. Where did the cockroaches go? 3. Supply surge. 2026 figures to see record-setting issuance. What does it mean for spreads?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Economic tension. Underneath the Goldilocks data are a number of competing forces. 2. Fed decision-making. Changes are afoot. 3. Trigger points. Where does risk reprice?

This week, our 3 Things are: Oil glut. The price of the commodity has plunged and is likely to stay that way in 2026. Credit cycle. Phases are irregular, and the conditions for pushing into recession are dormant.  2026 themes. We tally up things worth watching.